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題名：臺北市選民的分裂投票行為--一九九八年市長選舉分析
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：許勝懋
作者(外文)：Hsu, Sheng-mao
出版日期：2001
卷期：8:1
頁次：頁117-158
主題關鍵詞：分裂投票；臺北市選舉；政黨解組；省籍；分立制衡觀念；策略投票；Split ticket voting；Taipei City elections；Party dealignment；Ethnic background；Checks and balances；Strategic voting
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(18) 博士論文(5) 專書(0) 專書論文(1)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:15
  • 共同引用共同引用:176
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本文歸納影響選民分裂投票的六個模型，利用六個模型經過對數成敗比模型的比較，在控制人口基本背景因素之後（性別、年齡、教育程度及籍貫），發現模型影響選民分裂投票的情況：一是政黨認同強度減弱的政黨解組作用導致選民分裂投票。雖然政黨認同在模型中具有明顯的影響力，但台北市近年來並未有政黨解組的趨勢，因此政黨認同減弱並非分裂投票的主因。二為選民的省籍，尤其是外省籍選民分裂投票行為相當明顯，其中年輕世代比年紀大的世代更形嚴重。第三則是統獨議題及相關的中國人/台灣人認同。研究結果發現統獨議題對選民分裂投票不具顯著影響力；第四是候選人形象中的裙帶效應並不顯著，對分裂投票與否之間不具明顯差異。五為選民分立制衡觀念。在相同層級的市府及議會之間選民具有分立制衡的觀念，欲藉政黨間相互制衡以保護民眾的最大福祉，故採取分裂投票的行為。第六則為新黨的選民策略投票是影響選民分裂投票的重要因素。新黨選民對於尋求連任的民進黨市長候選人陳水扁相當反感，且新黨市長候選人王建煊當選機會不大的情況下，選擇轉投給國民黨馬英九之策略投票，並進而形成分裂投票。從六個模型最後推論的結果，真正決定選民分裂與否最重要的因素是選民的省籍背景所導致的情感反應及新黨選民的策略投票。
Split ticket voting by New Party identifiers and Mainlanders had a crucial influence on the outcome of the 1998 Taipei City mayoral election. Large numbers of voters who identified themselves as New Party support-ers voted for the KMT mayoral candidate. However, in the concurrent City Council elections, they voted for New Party candidates. This sur-prising result is worth researching. 　　To analyze split ticket voting behavior, we consider six different logit models. After controlling basic demographic variables, including sex, age, education, and ethnic background, it is possible to discover what in-fluences split ticket voting. First, weakening party identification can in-duce a dealignment process. This, in turn, gives rise to split ticket voting. In the data, the intensity of party identification has an obvious ef-fect on split ticket voting. However, there has been no dealignment. Thus, weakening party identification is not the main reason for split tick-et voting. The second factor is ethnic background. Mainlanders, especial-ly young and middle aged voters, are more likely to split their tickets. Third, the related questions of unification or independence and Taiwanese or Chinese identification also have influence. The effect of the unification/independence position is not significant, but the respondents' ethnic identity is. A fourth finding is that there is no sig-nificant coattail effect influencing split ticket voting. Fifth, many voters wish to balance the parties against each other, and so they split their votes. Sixth, strategic voting by New Party supporters was very impor-tant. New Party supporters were very opposed to Chen Shui-bian, and the New Party nominee did not have much chance of winning. As a result, many split their votes, voting strategically for the KMT mayoral candidate. 　　After examining the six models, we find that the most important fac-tors influencing split ticket voting are ethnic background and strategic voting by New Party supporters. These two factors are intimately con-nected, of course.
期刊論文
1.Brady, David W.(1993)。The Causes and Consequences of Divided Government: Toward a New Theory of American Politics?。American Political Science Review，87(1)，189-194。  new window
2.Braungart, Richard G.、Braungart, Margaret M.(1984)。Generational Politics。Micropolitics，3，349-415。  new window
3.Key, V. O.(1955)。A Theory of Critical Elections。Journal of Politics，17，3-18。  new window
4.Maddox, William S.、Nimmo, Dan D.(1981)。In Search of the Ticket-Splitter。Social Science Quarterly，62(3)，401-408。  new window
5.Rusk, Jerrold G.(1970)。The Effect of the Australian Ballot Reform on Split Ticket Voting: 1876-1908。American Political Science Review，64(4)，1220-1238。  new window
6.Sigelman, Lee、Wahlbeck, Paul J.、Buell, Emmett H. Jr.(1997)。Vote Choice and the Preference for Divided Government: Lessons of 1992。American Journal of Political Science，41(3)，879-894。  new window
7.Soss, Joe、Canon, David T.(1993)。Partisan Division and Voting Decisions: U. S. Senators, Governors, and the Rise of a Divided Federal Government。Political Research Quarterly，48，253-274。  new window
8.Hsieh, John Fuh-sheng、Niou, Emerson M. S.、Paolino, Philip(1997)。Strategic Voting in the 1994 Taipei City Mayoral Election。Electoral Studies，16(2)，153-163。  new window
9.Born, Richard(1994)。Split-ticket Voters, Divided Government, and Fiorina's Policy-balancing Model。Legislative Studies Quarterly，19(1)，95-115。  new window
10.Garand, James C.、Lichtl, Marci Glascock(2000)。Explaining Divided Government in the United States: Testing an Intentional Model of Split-Ticket Voting。British Journal of Political Science，30(1)，173-191。  new window
11.Ingberman, Daniel、Villani, John(1993)。An Institutional Theory of Divided Government and Party Polarization。American Journal of Political Science，37(2)，429-471。  new window
12.陳義彥(19941200)。我國選民投票抉擇的影響因素--從民國82年縣市長選舉探析。政治學報，23，81-132。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.許勝懋(20010500)。臺北市選民的分裂投票行為--一九九八年市長選舉分析。選舉研究，8(1)，117-158。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.徐永明、陳明通(19981200)。搜尋臺灣民眾統獨態度的動力：一個個體動態模型的建立。臺灣政治學刊，3，65-114。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.劉義周(19931200)。臺灣的政治世代。政治學報，21，99-120。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.Campbell, Angus、Miller, Warren E.(1957)。The Motivational Basis of Straight and Split-ticket Voting。American Political Science Review，51(2)，293-312。  new window
17.Sundquist, James L.(1988)。Needed: A Political Theory for the New Era of Coalition Government in the United States。Political Science Quarterly，103(4)，613-635。  new window
18.Zupan, Mark A.(1991)。An Economic Explanation for the Existence and Nature of Political Ticket Splitting。Journal of Law and Economics，34，343-369。  new window
19.Beck, Pual Allen、Baum, Lawrence、Clausen, Aage R.、Smith, Charles E. Jr.(1992)。Patterns and Sources of Ticket Splitting in Subpresidential Voting。American Political Science Review，86(4)，916-928。  new window
20.黃德福(19911200)。臺灣地區七十八年底選舉分裂投票之初探研究--以臺北縣、雲林縣與高雄縣為個案。政治學報，19，55-80。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.劉義周(19940500)。臺灣選民政黨形象的世代差異。選舉研究，1(1)，53-73。new window  延伸查詢new window
22.黃偉峰(19971200)。「次級選舉」理論與歐洲議會選舉：英國經驗資料之檢證。歐美研究，27(4)，199-232。new window  延伸查詢new window
23.傅明穎(19981200)。北市選民的候選人評價與投票決定。臺灣政治學刊，3，195-243。new window  延伸查詢new window
24.陳義彥(19961200)。不同族群政治文化的世代分析。政治學報，27，83-121。new window  延伸查詢new window
25.Kimball, David C.、Barry, Burden C.(1998)。A New Approach to Study of Ticket Splitting。American Political Science Review，92(3)，533-544。  new window
26.Miller, Warren E.(1992)。Generational Changes and Party Identification。Political Behavior，14，335-352。  new window
27.Bruce, John M.、Brown, Robert D.、Smith, Charles E., Jr.、Overby, L. Marvin(1995)。Party Balancing and Voting for Congress in the 1996 National Election。American Journal of Political Science，43，737-764。  new window
會議論文
1.王嵩音(1998)。分裂投票行為與傳播管道之運用。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
2.洪永泰(1995)。選民的分裂投票行為－1994年臺北市選舉的分析。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
3.徐永明(1999)。九四、九八臺北雙城記：族群政治中少數選擇的分流點。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
4.許增如(1998)。一九九六年美國總統大選中的分裂投票行為：兩個議題模式的探討。歐美選舉制度與行為學術研討會。臺北：中央研究院歐美研究所。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.陳明通(1998)。民進黨的政黨形象：一項縱時性的觀察。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.洪永泰、陳義彥、黃德福(1995)。臺北市民眾市政意向之研究。臺北：國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.林瓊珠(1998)。台灣政黨體系重組過程之研究：一九九一年至一九九六年(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.許增如(1996)。美國選民分裂投票行為之研究：以一九九二年選舉為例，0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Burham, Walter Dean(1970)。Critical Election and the Mainsprings of American Politics。New York, NY：Norton。  new window
2.Cox, gary W.、Kernell, Samuel(1991)。The Politics of Divided Government。Boulder, Colo.：Westview Press。  new window
3.Wattenberg, Martin P.(1990)。The Decline of American Political Parties。Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press。  new window
4.Alesina, Alberto、Rosenthal, Howard(1995)。Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy。New York：Cambridge University Press。  new window
5.Fiorina, Morris P.(1981)。Retrospective Voting in American National Elections。Yale University Press。  new window
6.Fiorina, Morris P.(1989)。Congress: Keystone of the Washington Establishment。Yale University Press。  new window
7.Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald R.、Converse, Philip E.、Campbell, Angus(1964)。The American Voter: An Abridgement。The American Voter: An Abridgement。New York, NY。  new window
8.Weisberg, Herbert F.、Niemi, Richard G.(1993)。Controversies in Voting Behavior。Controversies in Voting Behavior。San Francisco, CA。  new window
9.Beck, Paul Allen(1986)。Model Choice in Political Science: The Case of Voting Behavior Research, 1946-1975。Political Science: The Science of Politics。New York, NY。  new window
10.Fiorina, M. P.(1995)。Divided Government。Divided Government。Needham Heights, MA。  new window
11.Jacobson, Gary C.(1988)。The Electoral Originals of Divided Government。Boulder, CO：Westview。  new window
12.Jacobson, Gary C.(1995)。The Politics of Congressional Elections。New York, NY：Longman。  new window
13.Nie, Norman H.、Verba, Sidney、Petroick, John P.(1996)。The Changing American Voter。Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press。  new window
14.Tarrance, V. Lance, Jr.、De Vries, Walter、Mosher, Donna L.(2000)。Checked & Balanced: How Ticket-Splitters Are Shaping the New Balance of Power in American Politics。Checked & Balanced: How Ticket-Splitters Are Shaping the New Balance of Power in American Politics。Grand Rapids, MI。  new window
圖書論文
1.McCubbins, Mathew D.(1991)。Government on Lay Away: Federal Spending and Deficits Under Divided Party Control。The Politics of Divided Government。Boulder, CO.：Westview Press。  new window
2.Fiorina, Morris P.(1988)。The Reagan Years: Turning to the Right or Grouping toward the Middle?。The Resurgence of Conservatism in Anglo-American Democracies。Durham, NC：Duke University Press。  new window
3.Jacobson, Gary C.(1991)。The Persistence of Democratic House Majorities。The Politics of Divided Government。Boulder, CO：Westview Press。  new window
4.Cox, Gary W.、McCubbins, Mathew D.(1991)。Divided Control of Fiscal Policy。The Politics of Divided Government。Boulder, CO：Westview Press。  new window
5.Converse, Philip E.(1970)。Attitudes and Non-attitudes: Continuation of a Dialogue。The Quantitative Analysis of Social Problems。Reading, MA：Addison-Wesley。  new window
6.Wattenberg, Martin P.(1990)。The Republic Presidential Advantage in the Age of Party Disunity。The Politics of Divided Government。Boulder, CO：Westview Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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