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題名:消失的中間選民:2004年總統大選對空間理論的修正
書刊名:問題與研究
作者:石之瑜 引用關係
作者(外文):Shih, Chih-yu
出版日期:2005
卷期:44:4
頁次:頁1-24
主題關鍵詞:中間選民空間理論認知協調理論後殖民理論總統大選臺獨Median voterSpatial theoryCognitive dissonancePostcolonial theoryPresidential campaignTaiwan independence
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(8) 博士論文(2) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:8
  • 共同引用共同引用:192
  • 點閱點閱:60
本文發現中間選民理論對2004年大選適用時應予修正,雖然候選人集中在統獨的政策向度上,但影響選民投票的態度除了統獨的面向,還有第二個可以分開來的向度,即對現狀的態度。本文以後殖民理論為補充,推論第二向度影響到選民對候選人的信任,再用認知不協調理論補充,推論選民隨所信任候選人調整政策偏好。如此說明中間選民理論所不能解釋的現象,即當選的陳水扁採用非溫和化的競選策略,卻能扭轉落後的情形成為當選。後殖民理論主要指向選民的雙趨衝突。所謂雙趨,便是同時可趨統與可趨獨,或是同時避統與避獨。簡言之,雙趨選民可以是不希望改變統獨之現狀,也可以是希望改變以獲得任何一個穩定的身份,但並不計較是統或獨。雙趨選民的存在,修正了空間理論的適用。即在一對一選舉中的單一政策議題空間上,可以不存在所謂的中間選民。
The Presidential campaign of 2004 in Taiwan fits the archetype of the spatial theory of voting. However, the incumbent party seemed to violate the median voter theorem by winning through a radical approach on the single issue of Taiwan independence vs. China reunification. This paper recruits alternative interpretations from the cognitive dissonance theory and postcolonial hybridity theory. It argues that the issue space defined by the campaigning parties is not always the same as it is understood by the voters. While having their own issue space, voters nonetheless change their position to follow those leaders they trust.
期刊論文
1.王鼎銘(2001)。政策議題對台灣選舉行為之影響--混合型洛基分析之應用。選舉研究,8(2),65-94。  延伸查詢new window
2.Granberg, Donald、Brent, Edward(1980)。Perceptions of Issue Positions of Presidential Candidates。American Scientist,68,617-625。  new window
3.Brent, Edward、Granberg, Donald(1982)。Subjective Agreement with the Presidential Candidates of 1976 and 1980。Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,42,393-403。  new window
4.Ottati, Victor C.(1990)。Determinants of Political Judgments: The Joint Influence of Normative and Heuristic Rules。Political Behavior,12,159-179。  new window
5.Marcus, George(1988)。The Structure of Emotional Response: 1984 Presidential Candidates。American Political Science Review,82,737-761。  new window
6.Kinder, Donald(1978)。Person Perception: The Asymmetrical Influence of Sentiment and Choice on Perceptions of Presidential Candidates。Journal of Personality and Social Psychologyy,36,859-871。  new window
7.Ottati, Victor C.、Fishbein, Martin、Middlestadt, Susan E.(1988)。Determinants of Voters’ Beliefs about the Candidates,Stands on the Issues: The Role of Evaluative Bias Heuristics and the Candidates’ Expressed Message。Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,55,517-529。  new window
8.Zajonc, R. Bob(1980)。Feeling and Thinking: Preferences Need No Inferences。American Psychologist,35(2),151-175。  new window
9.陳文俊(19951100)。統獨議題與選民的投票行為--民國八十三年省市長選舉之分析。選舉研究,2(2),99-136。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.盛杏湲(20020500)。統獨議題與臺灣選民的投票行為:一九九〇年代的分析。選舉研究,9(1),41-75。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.謝復生、牛銘實、林慧萍(19950500)。民國八十三年省市長選舉中之議題投票:理性抉擇理論之分析。選舉研究,2(1),77-92。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.盛杏湲、陳義彥(20030500)。政治分歧與政黨競爭:二○○一年立法委員選舉的分析。選舉研究,10(1),7-40。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.王鼎銘(20030500)。政策認同下的投票效用與選擇:空間投票理論在不同選舉制度間的比較。選舉研究,10(1),171-206。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Black, Duncan(1948)。On the Rationale of Group Decision-Making。Journal of Political Economy,56,23-34。  new window
研究報告
1.國科會人文處、政治學門與社會科學研究中心(2003)。2002年至2004年「選舉與民主化調查」三年期研究規劃(II):民國92年民主化與政治變遷民調案。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Shih, Chih(2003)。Navigating Sovereignty: World Politics Lost in China。London:Palgrave。  new window
2.Downs, Anthony(1957)。Economic Theory of Democracy。New York:Harper Collins。  new window
3.Ong, Aihwad、Peletz, Michael G.(1995)。Bewitching Women, Pious Men: Gender and Body Politics in Southeast Asia。Berkeley:Uniersity of California Press。  new window
4.Ling, Lily H. M.(2001)。Postcolonial Learning between Asia and the West: Conquest of Desire。London:Palgrave。  new window
5.Wang, David Der-wei(1997)。Fin-de-sidcle Splendor: Repressed Modernities of Late Qing Fiction, 1849-1911。Stanford:Stanford University Press。  new window
6.Pye, Lucian(1988)。The Mandarin and the Cadre: China's Political Culture。Center for Chinese Studies, University of Michigan。  new window
7.Bell, D.(2000)。When the East Meets the West。Princeton:Princeton University Press。  new window
8.Barlow, Tani(1997)。Formations of Colonial Modernity in East Asia。Durham:Duke University Press。  new window
9.Chow, Rey(1995)。Primitive Passions: Visuality, Sexuality, Ethnography, and Contemporary Chinese Cinema。Columbia University Press。  new window
其他
1.陳敏鳳(20031107)。扁:憲政有問題台灣是不完整國家。  延伸查詢new window
2.劉寶傑(20031112)。扁:2006年公投制憲。  延伸查詢new window
3.劉寶傑(20041106)。扁:公投連任寧選公投 重申一定辦320和平公投 過年前公布題目。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.胡佛(1998)。選民投票行的概觀。政治參與與選舉行。台北:三民出版社。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.胡佛(1995)。政治文化的意涵與觀察。中國人的觀念與行。天津:天津人民出版社。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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