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題名：獨立選民的類型及其投票行為：臺灣2008年總統選舉的觀察
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：王中天 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wang, Jong-tian
出版日期：2010
卷期：17:2
頁次：頁35-69
主題關鍵詞：純獨立選民；有政黨偏向的獨立選民；政黨認同；回溯投票；Pure independents；Independent leaners；Party identification；Retrospective voting
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(10) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:10
  • 共同引用共同引用:209
  • 點閱點閱:79
本文摘要 本研究旨在檢閱獨立選民研究文獻的爭議、區辨台灣的獨立選民、進而探討其投票模式的差異。藉由「2005年至2008年『台灣選舉與民主化調查』四年期研究規劃 (IV)：民國九十七年總統選舉面訪案」提供之資料，經由統計分析，本文初步研究發現如下：首先，有關獨立選民的文獻存在至少三項爭議，包括獨立選民的形象與類型、對獨立選民的測量與操作化，以及如何解釋獨立選民的成因。其次，在台灣的純獨立選民與有政黨偏向的獨立選民無論就人口學背景或是政治態度以及政治行為來看，皆有顯著的差異。第三，雖然獨立選民沒有長期的政黨認同，但是短期的政黨喜好度以及對候選人的整體評價皆顯著影響其投票抉擇。此外，回溯投票因素對兩類選民卻有不同的效果，初步發現執政滿意度的評價對有政黨偏向的獨立選民會產生較強的影響力；而純獨立選民則對候選人的總體評價似乎給予相對較高的比重，政黨喜好度因素對這兩類選民的影響力並沒有顯著差別。
Abstract This study aims to examine the dispute within literature concerning independent voters, differentiate independent voters in Taiwan, and therefore explore factors affecting their vote choices. Through analysis of the data from Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2008(TEDS2008P): Presidential Election, the preliminary findings are as follows: first, there are at least three major disputes in the literature, including the conceptualization and typology of independent voters, the measurement and operationalization of independent voters, and the explanation of why and how people become independent voters. Second, there is indeed a substantial distinction between pure independents and independent leaners in Taiwan. Third, short-term party preference and the overall evaluation of candidates are the two most significant factors affecting independents’ vote choices. In addition, retrospective voting exerts different level of effect on these two independents. Specifically, while satisfaction with the incumbent plays more important role on independent leaners than on pure independents, overall evaluation of candidates seems to affect pure independents more than its counterpart. The explanatory power of party preference, however, is uniform to both kinds of voters.
期刊論文
1.劉義周(20051200)。典型的回顧型投票--2005年三合一選舉結果的解析。臺灣民主，2(4)，147-153。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Kuklinski, James H.、West, Darrell M.(1981)。Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States Senate and House Elections。American Political Science Review，75(2)，436-447。  new window
3.Miller, Arthur H.、Wattenberg, Martin P.(1983)。Measuring Party Identification: Independent or No Partisan Preference。American Journal of Political Science，27(1)，106-121。  new window
4.Weisberg, Herbert F.(1980)。A Multidimensional Conceptualization of Party Identification。Political Behavior，2(1)，33-60。  new window
5.Petrocik, John R.(1974)。“An Analysis of Intransitivities in the Index of Party Identification.”。Political Methodology，1(1)，31-47。  new window
6.Kamieniecki, Heldon(1988)。The Dimensionality of Partisan Strength and Political Independence。Political Behavior，10(4)，364-376。  new window
7.Achen, Christopher H.(1992)。Social Psychology, Demographic Variables, and Linear Regression: Breaking the Iron Triangle in Voting Research。Political Behavior，14(3)，195-211。  new window
8.RePass, David E.(1971)。Issue Salience and Party Choice。The American Political Science Review，65(2)，389-400。  new window
9.Dennis, Jack(1988)。Political Independence in America, Part II: Towards a Theory。British Journal of Political Science，18(2)，197-219。  new window
10.蘇建州、梁世武(20050600)。選民獨立性指標之研究。民意研究季刊，223，41-70。  延伸查詢new window
11.Riker, William H.、Ordeshook, Peter C.(1968)。A Theory of the Calculus of Voting。American Political Science Review，62(1)，25-42。  new window
12.黃秀端(20051200)。候選人形象、候選人情感溫度計、與總統選民投票行為。臺灣民主季刊，2(4)，1-30。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Campbell, Angus、Miller, Warren E.(1957)。The Motivational Basis of Straight and Split-ticket Voting。American Political Science Review，51(2)，293-312。  new window
14.吳乃德(19990700)。家庭社會化和意識型態：臺灣選民政黨認同的世代差異。臺灣社會學研究，3，53-85。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.盛治仁(20001100)。總統選舉預測探討--以情感溫度計預測未表態選民的應用。選舉研究，7(2)，75-107。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.鄭夙芬、陳陸輝、劉嘉薇(20050600)。2004年總統選舉中的候選人因素。臺灣民主季刊，2(2)，31-70。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.游清鑫(20040900)。Direction and Strength of Voter's Party Identification in Taiwan after 2000。東吳政治學報，19，39-70。new window  new window
18.吳重禮、許文賓(20030600)。誰是政黨認同者與獨立選民？--以二〇〇一年臺灣地區選民政黨認同的決定因素為例。政治科學論叢，18，101-140。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.莊天憐(20010500)。我國「獨立選民」的發展與變遷（1989-1999）。選舉研究，8(1)，71-116。new window  延伸查詢new window
20.Abramowitz, Alan I.(1985)。“Economic Conditions, Presidential Popularity, and Voting Behavior in Midterm Congressional Elections.”。Journal of Politics，47(1)，31-43。  new window
21.Converse, Philip E.(1962)。“Information Flow and the Stability of Partisan Attitudes.”。Public Opinion Quarterly，26(4)，578-599。  new window
22.Dennis, Jack(1992)。Political Independence in America, III: In Search of Closet Partisans。Political Behavior，14(3)，261-296。  new window
23.Green, Steven(1999)。Understanding Party Identification: A Social Identity Approach。Political Psychology，20(2)，393-403。  new window
24.Jennings, M. Kent, and Gregory B. Markus.(1984)。“Partisan Orientations over the Long Haul: Results from the Three-Wave Political Socialization Panel Study.”。American Political Science Review，78(4)，1000-1018。  new window
25.Keith, Bruce, David B. Magleby, Candice J. Nelson, Elizabeth Orr, Mark C. Westlye, and Raymond E. Wolfinger.(1986)。“The Partisan Affinities of Independent Leaners.”。British Journal of Political Science，16(2)，155-184。  new window
26.Lanoue, David J.(1994)。“Retrospective and Prospective Voting in Presidential-Year Elections.”。Political Research Quarterly，47(1)，193-205。  new window
27.Lockerbie, Brad.(1991)。“Perspective Economic Voting in U.S. House Elections, 1956-88.”。Legislative Studies Quarterly，16(2)，239-261。  new window
會議論文
1.李寬芳、鄭俊昇(2000)。獨立選民性質之研究：積極獨立選民與消極獨立選民的區隔與投票行為研究。2000年選舉研究學術研討會，政治大學選舉研究中心主辦 。臺北：政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.林啟耀(2009)。〈他們如何抉擇？探討2008 年總統選舉中獨立選民的投票抉擇〉。台北。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.游清鑫(2008)。《2005 年至2008 年「台灣選舉與民主化調查」四年期研究規劃(IV)：民國九十七年總統選舉面訪案》。台北。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.朱曉玉(2004)。我國獨立選民投票行為之研究：二○○○年與二○○四年總統選舉之分析與比較(碩士論文)。銘傳大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.許文賓(2003)。誰是政黨認同者與獨立選民？以2001年台灣地區選民政黨認同的決定因素為例(碩士論文)。國立中正大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.張嘉倫(2005)。2002年北、高市長選舉中獨立選民的投票抉擇研究(碩士論文)。國立中正大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.葉銘元(1994)。我國獨立選民之研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Devries, W.、Tarrance, V. L.(1972)。The Ticket Splitter: A New Force in American Politics。Grand Rapids, MI：Eerdmans。  new window
2.Lazarsfeld, Pual F.、Lazarsfeld, Paul F.、Berelson, Bernard、Gaudet, Hazel(1944)。The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign。New York, NY：Columbia University Press。  new window
3.Miller, Warren E., and Teresa E. Levitin.(1976)。Leadership and Change: Presidential Elections from 1952 to 1976。Cambridge, MA：Wintrhop Publishers。  new window
4.Sorauf, Frank J.、Beck, Paul Allen(1988)。Party Politics in America。Glenview, IL：Longman Higher Education。  new window
5.Popkin, Samuel L.(1994)。The reasoning voter: Communication and persuasion in presidential campaigns。University of Chicago Press。  new window
6.Burnham, Walter Dean(1970)。Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics。New York, NY：W. W. Norton & Company Inc.。  new window
7.Berelson, Bernard R.、Lazarsfeld, Paul F.、McPhee, William(1954)。The Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign。Chicago, IL：University of Chicago Press。  new window
8.Keith, Bruce E.、Magleby, David B.、Nelson, Candice J.、Orr, Elizabeth A.、Westlye, Mark C.、Wolfinger, Raymond E.(1992)。The Myth of the Independent Voter。Berkeley, CA：University of California Press。  new window
9.Fiorina, Morris P.(1981)。Retrospective Voting in American National Elections。Yale University Press。  new window
10.Key, V. O. Jr.(1966)。The Responsible Electorate。Cambridge, Massachusetts：Harvard University Press。  new window
11.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York：Harper and Row。  new window
12.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
13.Asher, Herbert(1980)。Presidential Elections and American Politics。Homewood, IL：Dorsey。  new window
14.Converse, Philip E..(1966)。“The Concept of a Normal Vote.”。Elections and the Political Order。New York。  new window
15.Converse, Philip E..(1976)。The Dynamics of Party Support。Beverly Hills, CA。  new window
16.Daudt, Harry.(1961)。Floating Voters and the Floating Vote: A Critical Analysis of American and English Election Studies。Leiden。  new window
17.Mayer, William G.(2008)。“What Exactly Is a Swing Voter? Definition and Measurement.”。The Swing Voter in American Politics。Washington, D.C.。  new window
18.Pomper, Gerald M.(1975)。Voter’s Choice。New York。  new window
19.Prior, Markus(2007)。Post-Broadcast Democracy: How Media Choice Increases Inequality in Political Involvement and Polarizes Elections。New York：Cambridge University Press。  new window
20.Saeger, Richard T.(1982)。American Government and Politics。New York。  new window
21.Wolfinger, Raymond E.(1995)。“The Promising Adolescence of Campaign Surveys.”。Campaigns and Elections American Style。.Boulder, CO。  new window
圖書論文
1.Sniderman, Paul M.、Glaser, James M.、Griffin, Robert(1990)。Information and Electoral Choice。Information and Democratic Processes。Urbana：University of Illinois Press。  new window
2.Zaller, John(2004)。Floating Voters in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948-2000。Studies in Public Opinion: Attitudes, Nonattitudes, Measurement Error, and Change。Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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