本文以跨年度調查訪問的結果，針對台灣民眾的社會分歧與民主態度進行分析，並從政治世代的觀點切入，以民眾在1992年時是否取得投票權，來作為政治世代劃分的時間點，分析「後九二世代」與「前九二世代」在各項政治態度上的差異，進而推論台灣民主政治的未來。研究結果發現，在統獨議題、族群認同及政黨認同等社會分歧上，民進黨雖在過去較受到新世代民眾的支持，但這樣的競爭優勢在2005年後出現變化，後續發展仍有待觀察。此外，民進黨所刻意營造的台灣主體意識或台獨主張，並未反映在新世代的政治態度上，新選民在統獨議題及群族認同的態度上，反而較傾向採取維持現狀及雙重認同的中立意見，在這種社會分歧減弱的情形下，將有助於政治系統的持續。再從民主滿意度、民主信念與民主價值來看時，本研究結果發現，2004年總統選舉後的一連串政治風波，雖然導致民眾對台灣民主政治實行的滿意度大幅下滑，但民眾在民主信念及民主價值上並未呈現下滑的現象，甚至出現上揚的趨勢，尤其「後九二世代」對民主價值的認知更是高於「前九二世代」，這樣的結果結合前述新選民在統獨議題與族群認同態度的分佈，將有利於台灣民主政治的推展。

This essay analyzes the relationships between social cleavages and democratic attitudes, using longitudinal survey data. The concept of political generations is also used to distinguish people who acquired voting rights before 1992, the “pre-92 generation,” and those who acquired voting rights after 1992, the “post-92 generation.” This essay investigates the different political attitudes between the two generations and their impacts on Taiwan’s democracy. The results signal a notable trend that after 2005, the new generation is not as supportive of the DPP as before on issues such as unification vs. independence, ethnic identity, and party identification. The DPP’s engineering of Taiwan consciousness and Taiwan independence has not produced the anticipated effects on the new generation. Instead, the new generation has tended to adopt a moderate position in favor of maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait and a dual identity for themselves. This trend is conducive to mitigating social polarization and to the continuity of the political system. This essay also indicates that people’s democratic beliefs and values did not decrease after 2004, though a series of political disturbances since the presidential election have led to people’s dramatic dissatisfaction with the performance of democracy. It further finds an increase of people’s democratic beliefs and values after 2004, and in particular, the democratic value of the “post-92 generation” are significantly higher than that of the “pre-92 generation.” Adding the moderate position on unification vs. independence and self identity, this essay concludes with an optimistic perspective of Taiwan’s democracy based on the political attitudes of the new generation.