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題名:臺灣選民政黨認同的持續與變遷
書刊名:選舉研究
作者:陳陸輝
作者(外文):Chen, Lu-huei
出版日期:2000
卷期:7:2
頁次:頁109-141
主題關鍵詞:政黨認同政治世代政黨體系Party identificationPolitical generationParty system
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(102) 博士論文(15) 專書(7) 專書論文(4)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:88
  • 共同引用共同引用:329
  • 點閱點閱:380
本文利用跨時性的資料檢視台灣地區選民政黨認同的持續與變遷,以及分析影響不同政治世代選民政黨認同的因素。檢視1992、1995以及1998年的調查研究資料顯示:台灣地區三個政治世代的選民,對國民黨認同的分布,是相當穩定的。而年長的世代,其穩定的程度,又較年輕世代的選民為高。就民進黨的認同者而言,三次訪問中,民進黨的認同者持續成長,不過,年長者認同民進黨的比例較少。 當考慮了省籍因素後,我們發現:就本省閩南籍的選民而言,他們對國民黨的認同比例非常穩定,而他們對民進黨的認同則持續增加。新的政黨對本省第一代的選民,較不具吸引力。本省第二代對新黨的支持程度相當低,不過,對民進黨的支持程度在1998年卻超過了國民黨。本省第三代選民則在1995年給予新黨相當的支持。就所有外省選民而言,他們在1992年認同國民黨的比例超過八成,到了1995年則減少了一半,1998年則回升至六成多。外省選民對民進黨歷年的平均支持,不到5個百分點。而他們對新黨支持度在1995年與1998年之間也有顯著的變動。 就各政治世代跨時比較而言,我們發現:對第一代選民而言,影響他們對國民黨的認同的重要因素是「中國人」的自我認定。而偏向獨立的統獨立場,影響第一代選民對民進黨認同的傾向較顯著。就第二代選民而言,他們傾向利用統獨立場來決定他們對國、民兩黨的認同。至於第三代選民,則傾向獨立的立場以及「台灣人」自我認同,是影響他們對民進黨認同的重要因素。
I demonstrated change and continuity of party identification among the electorate in Taiwan by examining longitudinal survey data, and ex-ploring factors affected people's party identification among different polit-ical generations. It was shown that voters among three generations had stable partisan affiliation toward the KMT in1992, 1995, and 1998. Voters among elder generations had more stable party identification than voters among younger generations. As to the DPP supporters, the propor-tions increased continuously between 1992 and 1998, but the proportion of the DPP supporters was the lowest among voters of elder generation. When people's ethnic backgrounds were considered, I find that the distribution of the KMT identifiers was very stable among Taiwanese (Min-nan-jun), and the proportion of the DPP supporters among Tai-wanese increased continuously. However, two new parties, i. e. , the DPP and the NP, were less likely to attract first-generation Taiwanese. Few second-generation Taiwanese preferred the NP, but they were more likely to support the DPP than the KMT in 1998. Among Taiwanese, third-generation voters were likely to support the NP. As to main-landers, there were more than 80% of them identified themselves as the KMT partisans, the proportion decreased to 40% in 1995 but it rebound-ed to 60% in 1998. The proportion of the DPP partisans among mainland-ders was less than 5% between 1992 and 1998. The proportion of the NP identifiers fluctuated dramatically among mainlanders between 1995 and 1998. As to voters among three political generations, I demonstrated that Chinese identity was an important factor to determine first-generation voters' KMT identification. First-generation voters decided their DPP i-dentification by their Taiwan-independence stance. As to voters among second generation, their stances on the issue of unification with mainland China versus Taiwan independence tended to determine whether they i-dentified themselves as KMT or as DPP partisans. As voters among third generation, they were likely to employ their Taiwan-independence stance and Taiwanese identify to decide whether they want to support the DPP.
期刊論文
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8.何思因(19940500)。臺灣地區選民政黨偏好的變遷:1989-1992。選舉研究,1(1),39-52。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Jennings, M. Kent、Markus, Gregory B.(1984)。Partisan Orientations Over the Long Hall: Results From the Three-Wave Political Socialization Panel Study。American Political Science Review,78(4),1000-1018。  new window
10.陳陸輝(19990500)。「固定樣本連續訪談法」(panel studies)樣本流失問題之探討。選舉研究,6(1),175-206。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.Converse, P. E.、Pierce, R. E.(1985)。Measuring Partisanship。Political Methodology,11(4),143-166。  new window
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13.劉義周(19931200)。臺灣的政治世代。政治學報,21,99-120。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Converse, Philip E.(1969)。Of Time and Partisan Stability。Comparative Political Studies,2(2),139-171。  new window
15.Converse, Philip E.、Markus, Gregory B.(1979)。Plus ça change…: The New CPS Election Study Panel。American Political Science Review,73(1),2-49。  new window
16.吳乃德(19950400)。社會分歧和政黨競爭--解釋國民黨為何繼續執政。中央研究院民族學研究所集刊,78,101-130。  延伸查詢new window
17.陳陸輝(20001100)。臺灣選民政黨認同的持續與變遷。選舉研究,7(2),109-141。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.徐火炎(1992)。民主轉型過程中政黨的重組:臺灣地區選民的民主價值取向、政黨偏好與黨派投票改變之研究。人文及社會科學集刊,5(1),213-263。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.吳乃德(19931100)。國家認同和政黨支持--臺灣政黨競爭的社會基礎。中央研究院民族學研究所集刊,74,33-61。  延伸查詢new window
20.劉義周(19940500)。臺灣選民政黨形象的世代差異。選舉研究,1(1),53-73。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.游盈隆(19960700)。臺灣族群認同的政治心理分析。臺灣政治學刊,1,41-84。new window  延伸查詢new window
22.何思因(19901000)。比較政黨認同研究。問題與研究,29(13),62-72。new window  延伸查詢new window
23.徐火炎(19911100)。政黨認同與投票抉擇:臺灣地區選民的政黨印象、偏好與黨派投票行為之分析。人文及社會科學集刊,4(1),1-57。new window  延伸查詢new window
24.莊天憐(20010500)。我國「獨立選民」的發展與變遷(1989-1999)。選舉研究,8(1),71-116。new window  延伸查詢new window
25.劉義周(19951100)。臺灣的新政黨體系。問題與研究,34(11),1-10。new window  延伸查詢new window
26.何思因、吳釗燮(19960500)。臺灣政黨體系之下政黨認同的測量方法。選舉研究,3(1),1-16。new window  延伸查詢new window
27.黃德福(19941100)。政黨競爭與政治民主化:臺灣地區政黨體系的新挑戰。選舉研究,1(2),199-220。new window  延伸查詢new window
28.黃德福、張佑宗(19941200)。邁向三黨競爭體系? --民主鞏固與臺灣地區政黨體系的變遷。政治學報,23,197-225。new window  延伸查詢new window
29.游清鑫(19951200)。臺灣政黨競爭及體系之變遷。政治學報,25,181-206。new window  延伸查詢new window
30.Johnston, Richard(1992)。Party Identification Measures in the Anglo-American Democracies: A National Survey Experiment。American Journal of Political Science,36(2),542-559。  new window
31.Cain, B. E.、Ferejohn, J.(1981)。Party Identification in the United States and Great Britain。Comparative Political Studies,14(1),31-47。  new window
32.Abramson, Paul R.(1989)。Generational Replacement, Ethnic Change, and Partisan Support in Israel。Journal of Politics,51,545-574。  new window
33.Clarke, Harold D.、Stewart, Marianne C.(1987)。Partisan Inconsistency and Partisan Change in Federal States: The Case of Canada。American Journal of Political Science,31(2),383-407。  new window
34.Converse, Philip E.、Dupeux, Georges(1962)。Politicization of the Electorate in France and the United State。Pubic Opinion Quarterly,26,1-26。  new window
35.LeDuc, Lawrence、Clarke, Harold D.、Jenson, Jane、Pammett, Jon H.(1984)。Partisan Instability in Canada: Evidence from a New Panel Study。American Political Science Review,78,470-484。  new window
36.Norpoth, Helmut(1978)。Party Identification in West Germany。Comparative Political Studies,11(1),36-61。  new window
37.Norpoth, Helmut、Rusk, Jerrold G.(1982)。Partisan Dealignment in the American Electorate: Itemizing the Deductions since 1964。American Political Science Review,76,522-537。  new window
38.Stewart, Marianne C.、Clarke, Harold D.(1998)。The Dynamics of Party Identification in Federal Systems: The Canadian Case。American Journal of Political Science,42(1),97-116。  new window
39.Shively, W. Philips(1972)。Party Identification, Party Choice, and Voting Stability: The Weimar Case。American Political Science Review,66,1203-1225。  new window
會議論文
1.劉義周(1997)。政治學概念測量的困難:政黨認同的實例。政治學研究方法學術研討會,國立政治大學政治系主辦 (會議日期: 1997年5月31日)。台北:政治大學政治學系。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.陳義彥(1993)。選舉行為與台灣地區的政治民主化--從第二屆立法委員選舉探討 (計畫編號:NSC82-0301-H-004-034-B2)。台北。  延伸查詢new window
2.雷飛龍、陳義彥(1987)。轉型期社會中的投票行為:臺灣地區選民的科際整合研究 (計畫編號:NSC76-0301-H004-12)。臺北:國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳陸輝(1992)。臺灣地區選民投票行為之研究-從第二屆國大代表選舉探討。0。  延伸查詢new window
4.陳義彥(1996)。選舉行為與臺灣地區的政治民主化-從八十四年立法委員選舉探討。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
5.何思因(1991)。臺灣地區選民的投票行為-一個理論模式的探索。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
6.Lin, Tse-min、朱雲漢、黃東益、Zhang, Baohui(1998)。Elections and Elite Convergence: The Consolidation of Democracy in Taiwan。0。  new window
學位論文
1.林瓊珠(1998)。台灣政黨體系重組過程之研究:一九九一年至一九九六年(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.Lin, Chia-Lung(1998)。Paths to democracy: Taiwan in comparative perspective(博士論文)。Yale University。  new window
3.蔡孟熹(1997)。臺灣民眾族群認同、統獨立場與政黨偏好變遷之研究:1991-1996年之分析(碩士論文)。國立政治大學,臺北。  延伸查詢new window
4.葉銘元(1994)。我國獨立選民之研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Budge, Ian(1976)。Party Identification and beyond。New York, NY:John & Sons。  new window
2.Glenn, Norval D.(1977)。Cohort Analysis。Beverly Hills, California:Sage。  new window
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6.Abramson, Paul R.(1983)。Political Attitudes in America: Formation and Change。San Francisco, CA:W. H. Freeman and Company Press。  new window
7.Keith, Bruce E.、Magleby, David B.、Nelson, Candice J.、Orr, Elizabeth A.、Westlye, Mark C.、Wolfinger, Raymond E.(1992)。The Myth of the Independent Voter。Berkeley, CA:University of California Press。  new window
8.Jennings, M. Kent、Niemi, Richard G.(1981)。Generations and Politics: A Panel Study of Youth Adults and Their Parents。Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press。  new window
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11.盛杏湲(19860000)。國民黨與黨外中央後援會選舉競爭之研究:民國七十二年臺灣地區增額區域立法委員選舉之分析與探討。臺北:桂冠。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
13.Crewe, Ivor(1976)。Party Identification Theory and Political Change in Britain。Party Identification and Beyond: Representations of Voting and Party Competition。London, UK。  new window
14.Kaase, Max(1976)。Party Identification and Voting Behavior in the West German Election of 1969。Party Identification and Beyond。London, UK。  new window
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17.Citrin, Jack、Muste, Christopher(1993)。Trust in Government。Measures of Political Attitudes。San Diego, CA。  new window
18.Converse, Philip E.(1976)。The Dynamics of Party Support: Cohort-Analysing Party Identification。The Dynamics of Party Support: Cohort-Analysing Party Identification。Beverly Hills。  new window
圖書論文
1.Thomassen, J.(1976)。Party identification as a cross-national concept: Its meaning in the Netherlands。Classics in voting behavior。Washington, DC:Congressional Quarterly Press。  new window
2.Budge, Ian、Farlie, Dennis(1976)。A Comparative Analysis of Factors Correlated with Turnout and Voting Choice。Party Identification and Beyond: Representations of Voting and Party Competition。New York:Wiley。  new window
3.Mannheim, Karl(1952)。The Problem of Generations。Essays on the Sociology of Knowledge。New York, NY:Oxford University Press。  new window
4.徐火炎(1998)。臺灣的選舉與社會分歧結構--政黨競爭與民主化。兩岸基層選舉與政治社會變遷:哈佛大學東西方學者的對話。臺北:月旦出版社。  延伸查詢new window
5.Converse, Philip E.(1964)。The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics。Ideology and Discontent。Free Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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