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題名：歐亞美三洲九國之總體經濟因素對犯罪率之縱橫門檻研究
書刊名：文大商管學報
作者：聶建中 引用關係／李嫺柔 引用關係
作者(外文)：Nieh, Chien-chung／Lee, Shian-rou
出版日期：2006
卷期：11:1
頁次：頁61-81
主題關鍵詞：平均每人GDP；犯罪率；縱橫門檻自我回歸分析；GDP；Crime rates；Panel threshold
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:28
  • 點閱點閱:28
本研究以Hansen(1999)縱橫門檻自我回歸模型，以9個國家為調查對象，探討自1996年至2001年平均每人GDP對犯罪率是否存在著上下不對稱之非線性關係。實證結果顯示，平均每人GDP對犯罪率存在雙重門檻效果，平均每人GDP門檻值分別為USD 25，122以及USD 25，677，因此平均每人GDP可分為三個區間。其中平均每人GDP介於USD 25，122和USD 25，677之第二區間與犯罪率呈現顯著正相關，在此區間平均每人GDP的提高將會使犯罪率提升。而社會秩序中的階級意識及貧富差距是與整體社會結構連動的，犯罪現象是社會結構變化的反應，在快速的經濟發展或經濟發展失衡時，社會秩序必定受到牽連。因此研究結果可供決策者及投資者在規劃相關政策及決策案時將相關福利配套措施列入考慮。
The study is structured according to the autoregressive Model (Hansen 1999) and its subjects include nine countries. This research analyzes the asymmetric non-linear relationship between the crime rates and GDP from 1996 to 2001 among nine countries in Europe, Asia, and America. The results show that the GDP has a double threshold effect on the crime rates. The thresholds of GDP are USD 25,122 and USD 25,677. Therefore there are three intervals for GDP. The second interval with a GDP between USD 25,122 and USD 25,677 is found to have a positive relation with the crime rates. The rise in GDP will increase the crime rates within this interval. However, class consciousness and the inequality of wealth are related to the whole social structure. The phenomenon of crime is a reaction to social changes. When economic development of a society lurches forward too fast or too imbalanced, social order will be affected. The results of this study point to the need to incorporate social welfare policies into the overall consideration of economic policies.
期刊論文
1.Tong, H.、Lim, K. S.(1980)。Threshold autoregressions, limit cycles, and data。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society，42(3)，245-292。  new window
2.莊忠進(20020600)。論犯罪學研究的幾個基本觀念。警專學報，3(2)，2。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.黃政吉(19990900)。計量犯罪學在犯罪學上運用之價值。警學叢刊，30(2)=126，77-95。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.Brenner, H.(1971)。Heath costs and benefits of economic policy。International Journal of Health Service，7，581-623。  new window
5.Davis, R. B.(1987)。Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only the alternative。Biometrika，74，33-43。  new window
6.Ehrlich, I.、George, D. B.(1987)。On the issue of causality in the economic model of crime and law enforcement: Some theoretical consideration and experimental evidence。The American Economic Review，77(2)，99-106。  new window
7.Engle, R. F.、Issler, J. V.(1995)。Estimating common sectoral cycles。Journal of Monetary Economics，35，83-113。  new window
8.Fowles, R.、Merva, M.(1996)。Wage inequality and criminal activity: An extreme bounds analysis for the United States, 1975-1990。Criminology，34(2)，1975-1990。  new window
9.George, S.(2004)。Violent crime in the United States of America: A time-series analysis between 1960-2000。European Journal of Law and Economics，18，203-221。  new window
10.Jou, S.(1995)。Socio-economic inequality and crime Rates in Taiwan。Journal of Police Study，25，283-302。  new window
11.Lott, J. R.(1990)。A transaction-cost explanation for why the poor are more likely to commit crime。Journal of Legal Studies，19，243-245。  new window
12.Masih, A. M.、Rumi, M.(1996)。Temporal causality and the dynamics of different categories of crime and their socioeconomic determinants: Evidence from Australia。Applied Economics，28，1093-1104。  new window
13.Michaels, V.(1991)。The relationship between unemployment and crime in Japan from 1926 to 1988: Trends during emperor Hirohito's Reign。International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice，15(2)，153-167。  new window
14.Neuman, W. L.、Berger, R. J.(1988)。Competing perspectives on cross-national crime: An evaluation of theory and evidence。Sociology Quarterly，29(2)，281-313。  new window
15.Samuel, M. J.(1984)。Do better wages reduce crime? A research note。American Journal of Economics and Sociology，43(2)，191-194。  new window
16.李湧清、蔣基萍(19940100)。犯罪與經濟--一個宏觀的時間序列分析。警政學報，24，127-146。  延伸查詢new window
17.張倉耀、方文碩、林哲彥(19990700)。多變量共整合誤差修正模型對臺灣地區犯罪人口率的研究：1951-1996。警學叢刊，30(1)=125，89-135。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.Allen, Ralph C.(1996)。Socioeconomic conditions and property crime: A comprehensive review and test of the professional literature。American Journal of Economics and Sociology，55(3)，293-308。  new window
19.Chirs, H.、Dima, S.(1991)。Testing the relationship between unemployment and crime: A methodological comment and empirical analysis using time series data from England and Wales。Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency，28(4)，400-417。  new window
20.Hsiao, Cheng(1981)。Autoregressive Modeling and Money-Income Causality Detection。Journal of Monetary Economics，7(1)，85-106。  new window
21.Lee, J.(2000)。The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries。Journal of Macroeconomics，22(2)，331-356。  new window
22.Phillips, A. W. H.(1958)。The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957。Economica，25(100)，283-299。  new window
23.Chan, K. S.(1993)。Consistency and Limiting Distribution of the Least Squares Estimator of a Threshold Autoregressive Model。The Annals of Statistics，21(1)，520-533。  new window
24.Hansen, Bruce E.(1999)。Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference。Journal of Econometrics，93(2)，345-368。  new window
25.蕭銘慶(20030500)。臺灣地區四十年來整體及各犯罪類型犯罪率之變化幅度分析。警學叢刊，33(6)=148，93-116。new window  延伸查詢new window
26.Davies, Robert B.(1977)。Hypothesis Testing When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative。Biometrika，64(2)，247-254。  new window
27.Hansen, B. E.(1996)。Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis。Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society，64(2)，413-430。  new window
28.Hansen, B. E.(2000)。Sample splitting and threshold estimation。Econometrica，68(3)，575-604。  new window
29.Bai, Jushan、Perron, Pierre(1998)。Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes。Econometrica，66(1)，47-78。  new window
30.Becker, Gary S.(1968)。Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach。Journal of Political Economy，76(2)，169-217。  new window
學位論文
1.陳姿文(2003)。臺灣地區經濟發展、教育發展與犯罪問題之關係研究(碩士論文)。屏東師範學院。  延伸查詢new window
2.徐昀(2001)。經濟發展與犯罪--台灣經驗分析(民國四十年至八十七年)(博士論文)。國立政治大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.彭惠琴(2003)。通貨膨脹、就業及貨幣政策與景氣循環之關聯性(碩士論文)。中原大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.廖德富(2003)。台灣地區社會變動與犯罪相關性之硑究(碩士論文)。國立中正大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Box, S.(1987)。Recession, Crime and Punishment。Macmillan Education。  new window
2.林美玲(1991)。治安問題與警力運用。臺北：國家政策研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
3.林山田(1989)。刑罰學。臺北：三民。  延伸查詢new window
4.Corman, H.、Theodore, J.、Lovitch, N.(1987)。Crime, deterrence and the business cycle in New York city: A VAR approach。The Review of Economics and Statistics。  new window
5.Cornish, Derek、Clark, Ron(1986)。The reasoning criminal: Rational choice perspective on offending。New York：Springer-Verlag。  new window
6.許春金(1996)。犯罪學。中央警察大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Tong, Howell(1978)。On a Threshold Model。Pattern Recognition and Signal Processing。Sijthoff & Noordhoff。  new window
 
 
 
 
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