:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:臺北市中古屋價格與法拍屋拍定價格非對稱價格調整行為之研究
書刊名:管理與系統
作者:江淑玲蔡明憲張金鶚 引用關係
作者(外文):Chiang, Shu-lingTsai, Ming-shannChang, Chin-oh
出版日期:2011
卷期:18:2
頁次:頁317-340
主題關鍵詞:共整合門檻效果法拍屋中古屋價格CointegrationThreshold effectCourt auction propertiesHousing prices
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:93
  • 點閱點閱:88
中古屋與法拍屋市場交易的房屋性質相近,家戶因自住與投資需求而在二手成屋市場的買賣行爲,將影響此兩市場的供給與需求,進而改變兩市場的房屋均衡價格,所以二者間應存在相關性。目前台灣關於房價的研究少見納入法拍屋市場的議題,本文因此針對兩市場的關係進行探討。台灣房地產市場的價格具多變性且存在結構性轉變,據此,傳統誤差修正模型將無法合理描繪出中古屋價格與法拍屋拍定價格的價格調整行爲與領先落後關係,爲合理與完整分析此兩變數非線性價格調整行爲,本研究以Hansen and Seo (2002)的門檻誤差修正模型進行此議題的探討。由結果發現,中古屋價格指數與法拍屋拍定價格指數間的確具有長期均衡關係,且門檻誤差修正模型的解釋能力相較於傳統誤差修正模型爲佳,因此門檻誤差修正模型的估計結果應能提供更具參考性的資訊。在門檻值前後,變數對於誤差修正的調整速度的確有所不同,變數之間的領先及落後關係亦有所差異。以文中代表性狀態的估計結果推論,這兩市場的價格應互爲領先落後的關係。但不論在哪個門檻階段,皆呈現法拍屋拍定價格指數的調整速度高於房屋價格指數的調整速度,故推論其可能原因爲投資客對資訊快速反應的買賣行爲,使得法拍屋市場進行誤差修正是較有效率的。
Because the traded houses in the housing market are similar to that in the court auctioned housing market, the household's living and investing demand for the houses will simultaneously affect the supply and demand of houses in these two markets, and then that leads to changes in the housing equilibrium prices. Based on this viewpoint, one may infer that the housing prices in these two markets are correlated. However, few researchers investigate the housing market taking the court auctioned housing market into account. This article, thus, intends to analyze the relationship between housing prices and auctioned housing prices. Some housing studies demonstrated that Taiwan's housing market have the changeable property and structural change. Using the tradition error correction model may not reasonably explain Taiwan's housing price behaviors. In order to more appropriately analyze the nonlinear relationship between housing prices and auctioned housing prices, this study analyzes Taipei's housing market by using Hansen and Seo (2002) threshold model. Since Hansen and Seo's model can estimate the unknown threshold level, we first use this model to directly estimate the threshold level, and then to discuss whether the adjustment behaviors and relationships of these two variables are the same in different disequilibrium regimes. According to the results, one can find that the long-term relationship exists between the housing prices and auctioned housing prices. The price behavior can be better explained by the threshold model than by the traditional error correction model. At the different threshold regimes, the adjustment speeds and lead-lag relationship are different. Because the typical regime in our study is the main situation that the error-correction of these two variables occurs, we conclude that these two markets have two-way lead-lag relationship. Moreover, the adjustment speed for the error correction is faster in the auctioned housing market than that in the housing market. The reason, which leads to efficient price-adjustment in the auctioned housing market, may be the investors behavior of fast responding to the market information.
期刊論文
1.Holly, Sean、Jones, Natasha(1997)。House Prices Since the 1940s: Cointegration, Demography and Asymmetries。Economic Modelling,14(4),549-565。  new window
2.蔡怡純、陳明吉(2004)。台北地區住宅市場結構性轉變與價格均衡調整。都市與計畫,31(4),365-390。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Hall, S.、Psaradakis, Z.、Sola, M.(1997)。Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom。Economic Modelling,14(4),517-527。  new window
4.楊雅婷、彭建文(2003)。房價結構性改變之檢測-以臺北縣、市房價為例。臺灣土地研究,6(2),43-60。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.張金鶚、王健安、陳憶茹(20081200)。The Puzzle of the Discount Price for Foreclosed Houses: Does the Factor of Competition Explain More Discounts?。交大管理學報,28(2),1-39。new window  new window
6.陳明吉、Patel, Kanak(20021200)。An Empirical Analysis of Determination of Housing Prices in the Taipei Area。經濟論文叢刊,30(4),563-595。new window  new window
7.林祖嘉(20000100)。亞洲金融風暴對臺灣住宅與住宅市場與住宅金融之影響與衝擊。現代化研究,21,頁44-61。  延伸查詢new window
8.Davies, R. B.(1987)。Hypothesis Testing When a Nuisance Parameter is Present Only under the Alternatives。Biometrika,74(1),33-43。  new window
9.Hansen, Bruce E.、Seo, Byeongseon(2002)。Testing for Two-Regime Threshold Cointegration in Vector Error-Correction Models。Journal of Econometrics,110(2),293-318。  new window
10.陳明吉(19900600)。房地產價格及其變動因素之研究。臺灣銀行季刊,41(2),220-244。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.Drake, Leigh(1993)。Modelling UK house prices using cointegration: An application of the Johansen technique。Applied Economics,25(9),1225-1228。  new window
12.Balke, N. S.、Fomby, T. B.(1997)。Threshold Cointegration。International Economic Review,38(3),627-645。  new window
13.Enders, Walter、Siklos, Pierre L.(2001)。Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment。Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,19(2),166-176。  new window
14.吳森田(19940100)。所得、貨幣與房價--近二十年臺北地區的觀察。住宅學報,2,49-65。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Shefrin, Hersh、Statman, Meir(1985)。The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence。The Journal of Finance,40(3),777-790。  new window
16.Kau, J. B.、Keenan, D. C.、Muller, Walter J. III、Epperson, J. F.(1992)。A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages。Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,24(3),279-299。  new window
17.Johansen, Søren(1988)。Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,12(2/3),231-254。  new window
18.Meen, Geoffrey P.(1990)。The removal of mortgage market constraints and the implications for econometric modelling of UK house prices。Oxford Bulletin Economics and Statistics,52(1),1-23。  new window
19.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica,55(2),251-276。  new window
20.張金鶚、楊宗憲、洪御仁(20081200)。中古屋及預售屋房價指數之建立、評估與整合--臺北市之實證分析。住宅學報,17(2),13-34。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.Chen, Ming-Chi、Tsai, I-Chun、Chang, Chin-Oh(2007)。House Prices and Household Income: Do They Move Apart? Evidence from Taiwan。Habitat International,31(2),243-256。  new window
22.彭芳琪、張金鶚、陳明吉(20080900)。不同拍賣機制對不良資產價格之影響。中山管理評論,16(3),401-428。new window  延伸查詢new window
23.江婷(2005)。法拍屋估價與價格之分析。土地問題研究季刊,4(2),93-103。new window  延伸查詢new window
24.林秋瑾(1998)。預售屋與成屋價格關係之分析--市場效率之驗證。管理學報,15(4),643-664。new window  延伸查詢new window
25.林秋瑾、黃瓊瑩(2007)。特徴價格法之參數與半參數電腦輔助大量估價(CAMA)模型之研究--台北地區法拍屋住宅市場之實證分析。住宅學報,16(2),85-105。  延伸查詢new window
26.邱國勳、張金鶚(2003)。我國不良資産處理方式之研究。管理評論,22(1),75-97。new window  延伸查詢new window
27.張梅英、鐘陳佳(2002)。住宅法拍屋屋屬性與拍定價格關係之研究--以台中市12樓以下集合住宅爲例。土地問題硏究季刊,1(2),12-20。  延伸查詢new window
28.Guirguis, H. S.、Giannikos, C. I.、Anderson, R, I.(2005)。The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients。The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,30(1),33-53。  new window
29.Abelson, P.、Joyeux, R.、Milunovich, G.、Chung, D.(2005)。Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970-2003。The Economic Record,81(255),S96-S103。  new window
30.Buckley, R.、Ermisch, J.(1982)。Government Policy and House Prices in The United Kingdom: An Econometric Analysis。Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,44(4),497-513。  new window
31.Azevedo-Pereira, J. A.、Newton, D. P.、Paxson, D. A.(2003)。Fixed-Rate Endowment Mortgage and Mortgage Indemnity Valuation。Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,26(2/3),197-221。  new window
32.Hilliard, J. E.、Kau, J. B.、Slawson Jr., V. C.(1998)。Valuing Prepayment and Default in A Fixed-Rate Mortgage: A Bivariate Binomial Options Pricing Technique。Real Estate Economics,26(3),431-468。  new window
33.Kau, J. B.、Keenan, D. C.、Muller, III, W. J.、Epperson, J. F.(1990)。Pricing Commercial Mortgages and Their Mortgage-Backed Securities。Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,3(4),333-356。  new window
34.Mayer, C. J.(1995)。A Model of Negotiated Sales Applied to Real Estate Auctions。Journal of Urban Economics,38(1),1-22。  new window
35.Samuelson, P. A.(1973)。Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly。The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science,4(2),369-374。  new window
36.Brown, J. P.、Song, H.、McGillivray, A.(1997)。Forecasting UK House Prices: A Time Varying Coefficient Approach。Economic Modeling,14(4),529-548。  new window
37.Nellis, J. G.、Longbottom, J. A.(1981)。An Empirical Analysis of Peterminatipn of House Prices in the United Kingdom。Urban Studies,18(1),9-21。  new window
會議論文
1.賴碧瑩(2003)。從經濟及結構變遷探討房地產市場與總體經濟之關連性。台北。45-62。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.彭建文(2000)。台灣房地產景氣循環之研究--生産時間落差、宣告效果、總體經濟之影響。政治大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關著作
 
無相關點閱
 
QR Code
QRCODE