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題名:中東北非地區的國內衝突起因之探析:政治與經濟的革命?
書刊名:問題與研究
作者:平思寧
作者(外文):Ping, Szu-ning
出版日期:2014
卷期:53:3
頁次:頁61-86
主題關鍵詞:內戰民主經濟發展中東北非Civil warDemocracyEconomic developmentMiddle East and North AfricaMENA
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:3
  • 點閱點閱:119
阿拉伯之春是於2010 年年底,由突尼西亞開始發生一連串位於包括中東與北非地區的國內政治動盪事件。多數人認為,這與當地的威權政治,以及經濟發展遲緩有高度相關,因此,本文首先探討中東北非地區內戰可能的發生原因,包括經常被提及的政治與經濟因素,另外再輔以中東北非地區特殊的區域環境解釋,包括了此區特有的豐富天然資源,以及造成此次阿拉伯革命的連鎖反應。作者發現,經濟發展非常顯著地影響著內部衝突發生的機率,包括良好的發展以及開放的貿易政策,而民主與衝突則顯示「倒U 型」的分布,過渡政體是最容易發生內部衝突的政體,而從威權到過渡政體間的衝突機率是升高的,而從過渡政體往民主的衝突機率則減少。自然資源的產出與衝突有顯著的正相關,但是並非意味著此區生產最多的原油是引戰的原罪。最後,本文證實在此區衝突的傳染力是存在的,但僅限於「鄰國」,若超越了國界,這樣的感染力也隨之消失。由於本研究為從1946~2012 年,研究對象包括24 國的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series, cross-sectional,TSCS),以及依變數為二元類別變數(binary outcome variable),因此採用廣義估計方程式(General Estimating Equation, GEE)作為本文的主要研究方法。
Since the Arab Spring occurred in the end of 2010, Middle East and North Africa(MENA)regions have drawn attentions from international society because of turbulent domestic events. Some nations in this area have leaders who stay in office for a very long time(e.g. Libya and Egypt), and some nations suffer from slow economic development(e.g. Algeria). Therefore, this study tries to review the previous studies on the civil war, focusing on political and economic determinants, to examine if political institution and economic development affect the onset of internal conflict in the region. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between democracy and the onset of conflicts. Autocracy is proven to be the most chaotic regime. However, the likelihood of conflict is decreasing as economy develops. In addition, the author investigates two regional factors – natural resources and conflict contagion in this study – and finds significant relationships. In this study, data are time-series and cross-sectional(TSCS), including MENA countries from 1946 to 2011, while The General Estimating Equation(GEE)are applied as the econometric model.
期刊論文
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8.Benmelech, Efraim、Berrebi, Claude、Klor, Esteban F.(2012)。Economic Conditions and the Quality o f Suicide Terrorism。Journal of Politics,74(1),113-128。  new window
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12.Buhaug, Halvard、Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede(2008)。Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space。International Studies Quarterly,54(6),883-901。  new window
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14.Bussmann, Margit、Schneider, Gerald、Wiesehomeier, Nina(2005)。Foreign Economic Liberation and Peace: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa。European Journal of International Relations,11(4),551-579。  new window
15.de Soysa, Indra、Fjelde, Hanne(2010)。Is the Hidden Hand an Iron Fist? Capitalist and Civil Peace。Journal of Peace Research,47(3),287-298。  new window
16.Easterly, William、Levine, Ross(1997)。Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions。Quarterly Journal of Economics,112(4),1203-1250。  new window
17.Eifert, Benn、Miguel, Edward、Posner, Daniel N.(2010)。Political Competition and Ethnic Identification in Africa。American Journal of Political Science,54(2),494-510。  new window
18.Elbadawi, Ibrahim、Sambanis, Nicholas(2002)。How Much War Will We See? Explaining the Prevalence o f Civil War。Journal of Conflict Resolution,46(3),307-334。  new window
19.Gates, Scott(2002)。Recruitment and Allegiance: The Microfoundations of Rebellion。Journal of Conflict Resolution,46(1),75-90。  new window
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21.Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede、Ruggeri, Andrea(2010)。Political Opportunity Structures, Democracy, and Civil War。Journal of Peace Research,47(3),299-310。  new window
22.Gylfason, Thorvaldur(2001)。Natural Resources, Education, and Economic Development。European Economic Review,45(4-6),847-859。  new window
23.Hegre, Havard、Sambanis, Nicholas(2006)。Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset。Journal of Conflict Resolution,50(4),508-535。  new window
24.Kathman, Jacob D.(2010)。Civil War Contagion and Neighboring Interventions。International Studies Quarterly,54(4),989-1012。  new window
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26.Miguel, Edward、Satanath, Shanker、Sergenti, Ernest(2004)。Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variable Approach。Journal of Political Economy,112(4),725-753。  new window
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28.Muller, Edward N.、Weede, Erich(1990)。Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach。Journal of Conflict Resolution,34(4),624-651。  new window
29.Ross, Michael L.(2004)。What Do We Know about Natural Resources and Civil War?。Journal of Peace Research,41(3),337-356。  new window
30.Ross, Michael L.(2008)。Oil, Islam, and Women。American Political Science Review,102(1),107-123。  new window
31.Sachs, Jeffery D.、Warner, Andrew M.(2001)。The Curse of Natural Resources。European Economic Review,45(4-6),827-838。  new window
32.Steinberg, David、Saideman, Stephen M.(2008)。Laissez Fear: Assessing the Impact of Government Involvement in the Economy on Ethnic Violence。International Studies Quarterly,52(2),235-259。  new window
33.van de Ploeg, Frederick(2011)。Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?。Journal of Economic Literature,49(2),366-420。  new window
34.Schneider, Gerald、Wiesehomeier, Nina(2008)。Rules that Matter: Political Institutions and the Diversity-Conflict Nexus。Journal of Peace Research,45(2),183-203。  new window
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38.Hegre, Håvard、Ellingsen, Tanja、Gates, Scott、Gleditsch, Nils Petter(2001)。Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992。American Political Science Review,95(1),33-48。  new window
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研究報告
1.Bleaney, Michael、Dimico, Arcangelo(2009)。Incidence, Onset and Duration of Civil Wars: A Review of the Evidence。  new window
學位論文
1.林雅瑩(2012-00-00)。中東民主化浪潮與未來挑戰之研究—從茉莉花革命探討(碩士論文)。中興大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Bremmer, Ian(2006)。The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall。New York:Simon and Schuster。  new window
2.Fargues, Philippe(2008)。Emerging Demographic Patterns across the Mediterranean and Their Implications for Migration through 2030。Washington, D.C:Migration Policy Institute。  new window
3.Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede(2002)。All International Politics Is Local: The Diffusion of Conflict, Integration, and Democratization。Ann Arbor, MI:University of Michigan Press。  new window
4.Marshall, Monty G.、Jaggers, Keith(2002)。Polity IV Dataset。College Park, MD:Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland, MD。  new window
5.World Bank(2011)。The Changing Wealth of Nations: Measuring Sustainable Development in the New Millennium。Washington, DC:World Bank。  new window
6.Mansfield, Edward D.、Snyder, Jack(2005)。Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War。Cambridge, Massachusetts:MIT Press。  new window
7.Tammen, Ronald L.、Kugler, Jacek、Lemke, Douglas、Stam, Allan C. III、Abdollahian, Mark A.、Alsharabati, Carole、Efird, Brian、Organski, Abramo Fimo Kenneth(2000)。Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century。Chatham House Publishers of Seven Bridges Press。  new window
8.Snyder, Jack(2000)。From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict。New York, NY:W. W. Norton & Company。  new window
9.Mann, Michael(2005)。The Dark Side of Democracy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing。Cambridge University Press。  new window
10.Huntington, Samuel P.(1968)。Political Order in Changing Societies。Yale University Press。  new window
其他
1.World Bank(2009)。World development indicators (WDI),http://data.worldbank.org。  new window
2.ACD codebook,http://www.pcr.uu.se/digitalAssets/124/124920_lcodebook_ucdp_prio-armedconflict-dataset-v4_2014.pdf。  new window
3.Polity IV Project,http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm。  new window
4.Central Intelligence Agency, World Factbook,https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook。  new window
 
 
 
 
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