國內外針對菸農的相關經濟分析付之闕如；因此，本研究在全臺 各菸草種植區域，針對606 個菸農進行訪談，並利用兩階段模型來分 析菸農願受價格之影響因素。在第一階段Probit 模型的實證發現， 對於菸草產業的前景愈樂觀的菸農，愈不願意接受種植權的買賣，願 意接受出價的傾向會隨著種植權的增加而降低；第二階段的2SLS 實 證發現，實際有種植行為的菸農會要求較高的售價，而且菸農私下進 行種植權租賃的成交價格對願受價格有正面的影響，而對菸草產業抱 持樂觀態度的菸農也會要求較高的願受價格。

Empirical studies on tobacco farming in Taiwan are almost nonexistent. To fill the gap, we apply a two-stage model to explore the factors that determine tobacco farmers’ willingness-to-accept (WTA) value to forfeit their contracts on growing tobacco. The results from a first-step Probit model suggest that farmers who are optimistic toward the future of the tobacco industry are less likely to sell their contracts, and large farmers, in terms of scale of cultivation, are less willing to give up their farming contracts. The second stage of our analysis relies on a two-stage least squares model. We find that WTA value is positively associated with actual farming practices, and higher previous contract trading prices lead to a higher WTA value. Consistent with the rationale in the first stage, we also find that optimism regarding the future of the tobacco industry leads to a higher WTA price.