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題名：議題、候選人評價、黨派意識--2006年臺北市長選舉投票行為研究
書刊名：臺灣民主季刊
作者：林瓊珠 引用關係
作者(外文)：Lin, Chiung-chu
出版日期：2008
卷期：5:2
頁次：頁59-87
主題關鍵詞：泛藍偏向；泛綠偏向；候選人評價；議題取向；投票行為；Pan-blue preference；Pan-green preference；Candidate evaluations；Issues；Voting behavior
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(11) 博士論文(2) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:11
  • 共同引用共同引用:73
  • 點閱點閱:104
本文主要檢視影響2006年台北市長選舉選民投票抉擇的因素。本文討論的主要解釋變項之重要性在諸多投票行為研究中已廣為證實與接受。這些解釋變項包括選民預存之政治傾向、對現任執政者表現之回顧性評估、候選人評價和候選人議題立場評估。在選民眼中，郝龍斌比謝長廷獲得較佳的評價和肯定，同時，台北市的泛藍陣營支持者也遠多於泛綠支持者，再加上六成二以上的選民肯定馬英九過去的執政表現，從種種因素來看，郝龍斌確實比謝長廷更具有勝選的機會與優勢。我們進一步從投票模型結果可以得知，長期因素（泛藍支持）是解釋郝龍斌得票的主要原因，然而，對謝長廷來說，短期因素例如候選人評價和議題考量則是解釋他得票的主要因素。換句話說，投票給郝龍斌者主要是一種情感上的表現，一種偏向泛藍陣營的心理認同；投票給謝長廷的選民主要是一種評估衡量後的決定，這個決定主要是來自對候選人的評價和議題想法之綜合評估。
This paper reviews a range of factors which specify a model for Hau and Hsieh votes in the 2006 Taipei Mayoral election. These factors, which have been proposed in studying voting behavior, include voters’ predispositions, retrospective evaluations of government performance, evaluations of the candidates, and contemporary issue-oriented considerations. By looking at the distributions of the explanatory variables, the results suggest that Hau Lung-bin was evaluated and credited more highly than Frank Hsieh. It further assessed the effect of all factors on the vote in a multivariate model. The results suggest that long-term partisan attachments were behind Hau Lung-bin’s victory, while short-term factors were in favor of Frank Hsieh. In other words, it was ‘pan-blue’ partisanships which accounted most for Hau’s success. It was issue-oriented considerations and candidate evaluations that played relatively important roles in deciding Frank Hsieh’s votes.
期刊論文
1.Hsieh, John Fuh-sheng(2004)。National Identity and Taiwan's Mainland China Policy。Journal of Contemporary China，13(40)，479-490。  new window
2.RePass, David E.(1971)。Issue Salience and Party Choice。The American Political Science Review，65(2)，389-400。  new window
3.Shamir, Michal、Arian, Asher(1999)。Collective Identity and Electoral Competition in Israel。American Political Science Review，93(2)，265-277。  new window
4.Dalton, Russell J.(1984)。Cognitive Mobilization and Partisan Dealignment in Advanced Industrial Democracies。Journal of Politics，46(1)，264-284。  new window
5.Stewart, Marianne C.、Clarke, Harold D.(1992)。The (Un)Importance of Party Leaders: Leader Images and Party Choice in the 1987 British Election。Journal of Politics，54(2)，447-470。  new window
6.Brody, Richard A.、Page, Benjamin J.(1973)。Indifference, Alienation and Rational Decisions: The Effects of Candidate Evaluations on Turnout and the Vote。Public Choice，15(1)，1-17。  new window
7.Kramer, Gerald H.(1971)。Short-term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964。American Political Science Review，65(1)，131-143。  new window
8.Kelley, Stanley Jr.、Mirer, Thad W.(1974)。The simple act of voting。American Political Science Review，68(2)，572-591。  new window
9.Markus, Gregory B.、Converse, Philip E.(19791200)。A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice。The American Political Science Review，73，1055-1070。  new window
10.Miller, Arthur H.、Wattenberg, Martin P.、Malanchuk, Oksana(1986)。Schematic Assessments of Presidential Candidates。American Political Science Review，80(2)，521-540。  new window
11.徐火炎(19951100)。「李登輝情結」與省市長選舉的投票行為:一項政治心理學的分析。選舉研究，2(2)，1-36。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.游清鑫(20040600)。分裂投票解釋觀點與臺灣選舉之應用：以2002年高雄市長與市議員選舉為例。臺灣政治學刊，8(1)，47-98。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.黃秀端(19960500)。決定勝負的關鍵:候選人特質與能力在總統選舉中的重要性。選舉研究，3(1)，103-135。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Inglehart, Ronald(1970)。Cognitive Mobilization and European Identity。Comparative Politics，3(1)，45-70。  new window
15.Bartle, John(2003)。Measuring Party Identification: An Exploratory Study with Focus Groups。Electoral Studies，22，217-237。  new window
16.林瓊珠(2006)。The Evolution of Party Images and Party System in Taiwan, 1992-2004。East Asia，23(1)，27-47。  new window
17.Jackson, Robert A.、Carsey, Thomas M.(2002)。Group Effects on Party Identification and Party Coalition across the United States。American Politics Research，30(1)，66-92。  new window
18.Franklin, M.(1985)。Assessing the Rise of Issue Voting in British Election since 1964。Electoral Studies，4(1)，37-56。  new window
19.Carmines, Edward G.、Stimson, James A.(1980)。Two Faces of Issue Voting。Two Faces of Issue Voting，74(1)，78-91。  new window
研究報告
1.黃秀端(2007)。2005年至2008年「臺灣選舉與民主化調查」四年期研究規劃，II：95年北高兩市市長選舉面訪案。臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.傅明穎(1996)。北市選民的候選人評價與投票決定：以民國八十三年臺北市長選舉為例(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Denver, David(2003)。Elections and Voters in Britain。Basingstoke：Palgrave Macmillan。  new window
2.Dalton, Russell J.(1996)。Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Western Democracies。Chatham, NJ：Chatham House Publishers, Inc.。  new window
3.Fiorina, Morris P.(1981)。Retrospective Voting in American National Elections。Yale University Press。  new window
4.Wattenberg, Martin P.(1994)。The Decline of American Political Parties 1952-1992。Cambridge, Massachusetts：Harvard University Press。  new window
5.Key, V. O. Jr.(1966)。The Responsible Electorate。Cambridge, Massachusetts：Harvard University Press。  new window
6.Miller, Warren E.、Shanks, J. Merrill(1996)。The New American Voter。Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press。  new window
7.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
8.Dalton, Russell J.(1998)。Citizen Politics in Western Democracies: Public Opinion and Political Parties in the United States, Great Britain, West Germany, and France。Citizen Politics in Western Democracies: Public Opinion and Political Parties in the United States, Great Britain, West Germany, and France。Chatham, NJ。  new window
9.Hsieh, John fuh-Sheng(2002)。Continuity and Change in Taiwan's Electoral Politics。How Asia Votes。New York, NY。  new window
10.Daalder, Hans、Mair, Peter(1983)。Western European Party Systems: Continuity and Change。Beverly Hills, CA：Sage。  new window
11.Abramson, Paul R.(1983)。Political Attitude in America: Formation and Change。Political Attitude in America: Formation and Change。San Francisco, CA。  new window
 
 
 
 
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