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題名:解嚴後臺灣政黨的競爭策略:Downs理論的再檢視
書刊名:東吳政治學報
作者:吳文程 引用關係
作者(外文):Wu, Wen-cheng
出版日期:2014
卷期:32:3
頁次:頁1-49
主題關鍵詞:理性投票競爭空間理論中間選民定理向心競爭離心競爭Sophisticated votingRational votingSpatial theory of competitionMedian voters theoremCentripetal competitionCentrifugal competition
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:175
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Downs的理論是意向研究途徑和理性抉擇模式的代表性理論。Downs所建構的兩個理論,第一個稱為「理性投票行為理論」,用來解釋選民的投票行為;第二個理論稱為「競爭空間理論」,用來解釋政黨的競爭策略。Downs認為選民和政黨都是「經濟人」,政黨從事選舉競爭,最主要的目的就是贏得選舉勝利,以取得執政的權力。政黨最主要的競爭策略就是在政治(意識形態)光譜上的移動。Downs認為在兩黨制或兩大黨競爭的情況下,因為大多數選民都在兩大黨的中間,因此兩大黨都會向中間移動,採取「向心競爭」的策略,有些學者稱之為「中間選民定理」。本文最主要就是在檢證這個定理。本文研究發現,從解嚴後到2000年政權輪替,國民黨、民進黨兩大黨確的向政治光譜的中間移動,採取「向心競爭」的策略,符合Downs的「中間選民定理」;但是從2000年以來至今,雖然大多數選民仍位居在政治光譜的中間,國、民兩黨卻呈現了「離心競爭」的狀況,特別是民進黨在2000年至2008年執政期間,向左移動的趨向特別顯著,顯然不符合Downs的理論。Downs的「競爭空間理論」主要假設,也許可以修正為:「在兩黨競爭下,兩大黨為了爭取多數中間選民的支持,在選舉前夕通常會短暫地向政治光譜中間移動,但是選後通常會很快回到原本意識形態的位置,也可能繼續朝離心的方向移動,而且執政黨移動的速率和距離通常會超越反對黨。」
Downsian theories are the representative theories derived from the intentional approach and rational choice model. Downs constructed two theories: the first is called the "theory of sophisticated voting" ich is used to explain the electorate's voting behavior; the second is called the "spatial theory of competition" which is used to explain the competitive strategies of political parties. Downs assumes that both voters and parties behave like an "economic man." The main purpose for a party to enter into electoral competition is to win the election and ruling position. The main competitive strategies of parties are the maneuvering along the political (ideological) spectrum. In a two-party system (or under two-party competition), Downs argues that the two main parties will both move toward the center of the spectrum because most voters are located in the middle, between the two parties. This is called "centripetal competition" or the "median voters theorem." The main purpose of this paper is to review and verify this theorem.Research results of this paper find out that from the lifting of martial law (1987) to the first rotation of power in 2000, both two main parties had adopted "centripetal competition" strategies and moved toward the "center (middle) of the spectrum" which had confirmed the "median voters theorem" and the "spatial theory of competition." However, from 2000 until now, despite the fact that voters are still located in the middle, the major two parties-the KMT and the DPP-have adopted strategies of centrifugal competition. This is especially true of the Democratic Progressive Party's rule, from 2000 to 2008 where the DPP demonstrated a strong tendency to move leftward.The case after 2000 apparently disconfirms Downsian theories. The main hypothesis of Downs' "spatial theory of competition" perhaps can be revised as the following: Under two-party competition the two major parties, in order to win the support of most median voters, usually move toward the center temporarily before the election, but will quickly move back to their previous ideological position and may continue to move centrifugally, away from the center. In addition, the ruling party's rate and distance of the centrifugal move usually exceeds the opposition party's.
期刊論文
1.吳文程(19940300)。憲政體制、政黨政治與選舉制度。東吳政治學報,3,151-186。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Dahl, A. Robert(1961)。The Behavioral Approach。American Political Science Review,55,763-772。  new window
3.Schmitter, Philippe C.(1974)。Still the Century of Corporatism?。Review of Politicsy,36(1),85-131。  new window
會議論文
1.林瓊珠、廖益興、廖益興(2012)。國族認同的問卷設計與測量:TEDS 與TSCS 之比較。「台灣選舉與民主化調查」2012年國際學術研討會:成熟中的臺灣民主:TEDS2012 調查資料的分析,(會議日期: 2012/11/03-11/04)。臺北:臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.游清鑫(2008)。2005 年至2008 年「臺灣選舉與民主化調查」四年期研究規劃:2008 年總統大選面訪案 (計畫編號:NSC 96-2420-H-004-017)。臺北:行政院國家科學委員會。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳義彥(2000)。跨世紀總統選舉中選民投票行為科際整合研究 (計畫編號:NSC 89-2414-H-004-021-SSS)。臺北:行政院國家科學委員會。  延伸查詢new window
3.劉義周(2004)。2002 年至2004 年「選舉與民主化調查」三年期研究規劃 (IV):民國九十三年立法委員選舉大型面訪案 (計畫編號:NSC 93-2420-H-004-005-SSS)。臺北:行政院國家科學委員會。  延伸查詢new window
4.朱雲漢、吳重禮、胡佛、俞振華、徐火炎、盛杏湲、劉義周、Haggard, S.(2012)。2009年至2012年『選舉與民主化調查』三年期研究規劃(3/3)--2012年總統與立法委員選舉面訪案 (計畫編號:NSC100-2420-H-002-030)。國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
5.黃秀端(2004)。2002年至2004年「選舉與民主化調查」三年期研究規劃(III):民國九十三年總統大選民調案 (計畫編號:NSC 92-2420-H-031-004)。臺北:行政院國家科學委員會。  延伸查詢new window
6.黃紀、朱雲漢、胡佛、劉義周、陳義彥、陳文俊、黃秀端、徐火炎、吳玉山(2001)。臺灣選舉與民主化調查:民國九十年立法委員選舉全國大型民意調查研究 (計畫編號:NSC90-2420-H-194-001)。國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.邱文衡(2008)。鐘型民意分佈下政黨真的是向心競爭? :Downs中間選民定理的反例(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.詹松諭(2003)。解嚴後台灣政黨的分合與競爭(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Sartori, Giovanni(1976)。Parties and Party System: A Framework of Analysis。Cambridge:Cambridge University Press。  new window
2.Dunleavy, Patrick(1991)。Democracy, Bureauracy and Public Choice。Hemel Hempstead:Harvester Wheatsheaf。  new window
3.Graham, George、Carey, George(1972)。The Post-Behavioral Era。New York:David Mckay。  new window
4.Lijphart, Arend(1979)。Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration。New Haven。  new window
5.Somit, Albert、Tanenhaus, Joseph(1976)。The Development of American Political Science: From Burgess to Behavioralism。Boston:Allyn & Bacon。  new window
6.Isaak, Alan C.(1985)。Scope and Methods of Political Science: An Introduction to the Methodology of Political Inquiry。Homewood, Illinois:The Sorsey Press。  new window
7.Laver, Michael、Schofield, Norman(1990)。Multiparty Government: The Politics of Coalition in Europe。Oxford:Oxford University Press。  new window
8.Friedrich, Carl J.、Brzezinski, Zbigniew(1965)。Totalitarian Dictatorship and Autocracy。Harvard University Press。  new window
9.Van Dyke, Vernon(1960)。Political Science: A Philosophical Analysis。Stanford University Press。  new window
10.Von Beyme, Klaus(1985)。Political Parties in Western Democracies。Aldershot:Hants:Gower。  new window
11.Schumpeter, Joseph A.(1943)。Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy。London:George Allen & Unwin。  new window
12.Dahl, Robert A.(1971)。Polyarchy: Participation & Opposition。New Haven, CT。  new window
13.Duverger, Maurice(1964)。Political Parties。London:Mathuen。  new window
14.王業立(20110000)。比較選舉制度。臺北:五南。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York:Harper and Row。  new window
16.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
其他
1.民進黨(2014)。黨史及相關資料,http://www.dpp.org.tw/history.php, 2014/10/08。  延伸查詢new window
2.陸委會(2014)。兩岸大事紀,http://www.mac.gov.tw/lp.asp?ctNode=6501&CtUnit=4536&BaseDSD=7&mp=1, 2014/10/08。  new window
圖書論文
1.Linz, Juan(1964)。An Authoritarian Regime: the Case of Spain。Cleavages, Ideologies and Party System。Helsinki:Turku:Westermarck Society:Abo Tidnings och Tryckeri Aktiebolag。  new window
 
 
 
 
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