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題名：動態的臺海兩岸談判：雙層賽局與認知因素研究
書刊名：東吳政治學報
作者：袁鶴齡 引用關係／沈燦宏
作者(外文)：Yuan, Hao-lin／Shen, Tsan-hung
出版日期：2014
卷期：32:3
頁次：頁173-239
主題關鍵詞：兩岸談判；雙層賽局；認知因素；戰略三角；議題連結；Cross-strait negotiation；Two-level game；Cognitive factors；Strategic triangle；Issue linkage
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從1990年代初期兩岸政府重啟談判協商以來，彼此之間的談判互動已出現愈來愈頻繁的現象。雖然兩岸至今在主權上仍存有爭議，但在其他議題的協商上，卻也出現日漸增多的趨勢。為了理解兩岸談判中的複雜性，本文嘗試在Putnam「雙層賽局」（two-level game）的基礎之上，增列國家決策者個人認知因素（decision-maker cognitive factors）以擴展其分析框架，並依據戰略三角理論將兩岸談判區分成六個時期，以討論個別時期之間的差異。研究發現，在把個人認知因素結合談判曲線，形成從國際、國內到個人層次的動態分析途徑，更能解釋兩岸談判的發展歷程及其議題連結（issue linkage）的談判特性。
In the early 1990s, cross Taiwan Strait governments reopened the gate of negotiation. Since then, the debate of sovereignty still remains between the two sides, but the number of issues that both sides have continuously negotiated has increased. In order to understand the complication of cross-strait negotiations, we extend Putnam's two-level game framework to include cognitive factors of national decision-makers. This paper also intends to divide cross-strait negotiations into six periods on the basis of the strategic triangle theory, and distinguish differences among periods. The paper finds that cognitive factors combined with the negotiation curve shapes the dynamic approach from an international and domestic level to an individual level analysis. It has more explanatory power to explain the differences among six periods to understand the development of cross-strait negotiations. This paper also can distinguish the characteristics of issue linkage negotiations more easily.
期刊論文
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16.Wagner, Harrison R.(1988)。Economic Interdependence, Bargaining Power, and Political Influence。International Organization，42(3)，461-483。  new window
17.林正義(20090600)。臺灣防衛性公投與美國對臺政策調整。歐美研究，39(2)，333-388。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.Snidal, Duncan(1985)。The Limits of Hegemonic Stability Theory。International Organization，39(4)，579-614。  new window
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圖書
1.黃嘉樹、劉杰(2003)。兩岸談判研究。北京：九州出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.鍾從定(2008)。國際談判學：結構、過程、策略、結果與文化。台北：鼎茂。  延伸查詢new window
3.Bazerman, Max H.、Neale, Margaret A.(1992)。Negotiating Rationally。New York：The Free Press。  new window
4.Brandenburger, Adam M.、Balebuff, Barry J.(1996)。Co-opetition。New York：Publishing Group, Inc. Press。  new window
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6.Stein, J. G.(1989)。Getting to the Table: The Processes of International Pre-negotiation。Baltimore, Maryland：Johns Hopkins University Press。  new window
7.Varian, Hal R.(2010)。Intermediate Microeconomics: A Modern Approach。New York：Norton & Company, Inc. Press。  new window
8.張維迎(2002)。博弈論與訊息經濟學。上海市：上海人民出版社。  延伸查詢new window
9.湯普森、燕清聯合、于君(2005)。談判者心智。北京市：中國人民大學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
10.費舍爾、夏皮羅、閭佳、邵冰(2007)。理性之外的談判。北京市：機械工業出版社。  延伸查詢new window
11.Habeeb, William Mark(1988)。Power and Tactics in International Negotiation: How Weak Nations Bargain with Strong Nations。The Johns Hopkins University Press。  new window
12.McCain, Roger A.(2004)。Game Theory: A Non-technical Introduction to the Analysis of Strategy。Mason, OH：South-Western Cengage Learning。  new window
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14.林文程(2000)。中共談判的理論與實務：兼論臺海兩岸談判。高雄：麗文文化出版社。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Jervis, Robert(1978)。Perception and Misperception in International Politics。Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press。  new window
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17.Hasenclever, Andreas、Mayer, Peter、Rittberger, Volker(2004)。Theories of International Regimes。New York：Cambridge University Press。  new window
18.Young, H. Peyton(1994)。Negotiating Analysis。Ann Arbor, Michigan：The University of Michigan Press。  new window
19.Waltz, Kenneth N.(1979)。Theory of International Politics。McGraw Hill。  new window
20.紹志芳(2006)。認知心理學--理論、實驗和應用。上海：上海教育出版社。  延伸查詢new window
21.朱光磊(2004)。中國政府與政治。臺北：揚智文化事業公司。  延伸查詢new window
22.Waltz, Kenneth N.(1959)。Man, the State, and War: A Theoretical Analysis。Columbia University Press。  new window
23.吳玉山(1997)。抗衡與扈從：兩岸關係新詮。台北：正中出版社。  延伸查詢new window
24.Adler, Emanuel(2005)。Communitarian International Relations: The Epistemic Foundations of International Relations。Routledge。  new window
25.Schelling, Thomas C.(1980)。The Strategy of conflict。Harvard University Press。  new window
26.Morrow, James D.(1994)。Game Theory for Political Scientists。Princeton University Press。  new window
其他
1.中國大陸人民代表大會(2012)。文獻資料，http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/xinwen/newwxzl.htm， 2012/02/01。  延伸查詢new window
2.立法院(2012)。歷屆委員查詢，http://www.ly.gov.tw/03_leg/0301_main/legList.action， 2012/01/10。  new window
3.海峽交流基金會(2011)。兩岸協議，http://www.sef.org.tw/lp.asp?CtNode=3810&CtUnit=2083&BaseD SD=7&mp=19&nowPage=1&pagesize=15， 2012/04/01。  new window
4.楊志誠(2010)。從政策思維探討兩岸經濟合作架構協議的議題，http://www.haixiainfo.com.tw/SRM/237-7957.html， 2012/04/01。  延伸查詢new window
5.葉美玲(2009)。增進自我談判技巧的方式。  延伸查詢new window
6.總統府(2002)。總統以視訊直播方式於世界台灣同鄉聯合會第二十九屆年會中致詞，http://www.president.gov.tw， 2011/08/03。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.包宗和(2009)。戰略三角個體論檢視與總體論建構及其對現實主義的衝擊。重新檢視爭辯中的兩岸關係理論。臺北：五南。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Dittmer, Lowell(1987)。The Strategic Triangle: A Critical Review。The Strategic Triangle: China, the United States and the Soviet Union。New York：Paragon House Publisher Press。  new window
3.Evans, Peter B.(1993)。Building an Integrative Approach to International and Domestic Politics: Reflections and Projections。Double-Edged Diplomacy: International Bargaining and Domestic Politics。London：California University Press。  new window
4.Faure, Guy Olivier、Sjostedt, Gunnar(1993)。Culture and Negotiation: An Introduction。Culture and Negotiation: The Resolution of Water Dispute。California：SAGE Publication, Inc. Press。  new window
5.Haas, Peter M.(2002)。Epistemic Communities and the Dynamics of International Environmental Cooperation。Regime Theory and International Relation。New York：Oxford University Press。  new window
6.Kapstein, Ethan B.(2005)。Power, Fairness, and the Global Economy。Power in Global Governance。Cambridge, Massachusetts：Cambridge University press。  new window
7.Snidal, Duncan(1986)。The Game Theory of International Politics. Cooperation under Anarchy。Cooperation under Anarchy。Princeton, New Jersey：Princeton University Press。  new window
8.Stein, Arthur A.(1993)。Coordination and Collaboration: Regimes in An Anarchic Neo-realism and Neo-liberalism: the Contemporary Debate。Neo-realism and Neo-liberalism: the Contemporary Debate。New York：Columbia University Press。  new window
9.張五岳(1999)。分裂國家模式之探討。爭辯中的兩岸關係理論。臺北市：五南圖書出版股份有限公司。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.包宗和(1999)。戰略三角角色轉變與類型變化分析--以美國和台海兩岸三角互動為例。爭辯中的兩岸關係理論。臺北：五南。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.Snidal, Duncan(1993)。Relative Gains and the Pattern of International Cooperation。Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate。New York：Columbia University Press。  new window
12.Moravcsik, Andrew(1993)。Introduction: Integrating International and Domestic Theories of International Bargaining。Double-Edged Diplomacy: International Bargaining and Domestic Politics。University of California Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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