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題名:國際化、國內就業效果與外銷貢獻高估問題
書刊名:經濟研究. 臺北大學經濟學系
作者:林灼榮 引用關係黃琛瑞謝俊魁 引用關係陳靜瑜 引用關係
作者(外文):Lin, Jwu-rongHuang, Chen-juiHsieh, Chun-kueiChen, Ching-yu
出版日期:2015
卷期:51:1
頁次:頁135-169
主題關鍵詞:臺灣資訊電子業國際化國內就業反覆表面無關迴歸模型Taiwan IE industryInternationalizationDomestic employmentIterative seemingly unrelated regression model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:65
  • 點閱點閱:38
本文利用2004 年至2008 年共915 筆臺灣資訊電子產業 (information technology and electronics industry, IE 產業) 之廠商資料,以反覆表面 無關迴歸模型,聯立推估「國際化深度(大陸及非大陸地區投資額 占總資產比率)與廣度(大陸與非大陸子公司數目)影響國內產出 比,並進而影響國內勞動雇用比」之遞迴方程式,再經由鏈法則與 跨方程式參數檢定,評估國際化對國內勞動雇用比之衝擊效應。晚 近已明顯出現「臺灣接單,海外生產」所衍生冰冷經濟成長與無感 復甦之總體問題,故本文在處理國內產出比方面,分別估計「國產 外銷」佔「整體外銷」100%、90%、80% 及70% 等四組模型。實證 結果顯示,就IE 產業而言:(1) 國際化(尤其是廠商西進),確實會 顯著降低廠商的國內勞動雇用比;(2) 高估國產外銷佔整體外銷比 重,會連帶導致低估國際化對國內勞動雇用比之負向衝擊程度;(3) 在控制變數方面,發現要素價格比、多角化、負債比、子產業別及 市場結構等因子,對國內勞動雇用比產生不同方向與程度之顯著影 響效應。
This study analyzes 915 information electronics (IE) firms in Taiwan over 2004-2008 and applies the iterative seemingly unrelated regression model to estimate how both the depth (accumulated value of overseas investment to total assets) and the width (number of overseas firms) of internationalization affect the ratio of domestic output to overseas output, which, in turn, influences the ratio of domestic employment to overseas employment. We then assess the shock response of the second ratio to internationalization through the chain rule and parametric tests across equations. Given Taiwan’s stagnant growth and jobless recovery in the past decade, which partially reflect the fact that most firms take orders in Taiwan while producing abroad, our analysis specifically constructs four sets of models at the 100%, 90%, 80%, and 70% levels for the ratio of locally produced exports to total exports. The empirical results show for Taiwan’s IE industry that: (1) the depth and width of internationalization, in particular under the sector’s relocation to China, substantially reduce domestic employment; (2) an overstatement of the ratio of locally produced exports to total exports leads to an understatement of the adverse effect of internationalization on domestic employment; (3) among the chosen control variables, the factor price, degree of diversification, debt ratio, sub-industry dummy, and market structure affect domestic employment differently in a significant way.
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