:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:決定投票選擇的結構、心理和理性因素:民國八十五年總統選舉研究
書刊名:選舉研究
作者:傅恆德
作者(外文):Fu, Hung-der
出版日期:1996
卷期:3:2
頁次:頁157-185
主題關鍵詞:理性因素結構因素心理因素投票決定總統選舉Structural factorPsychological factorRational factorVoting decisionPresidential election
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(33) 博士論文(8) 專書(2) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:33
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:63
在選舉的研究中,社會學派、社會心理學派、和理性抉擇學派是三個主要的研究模型。社會學派認為社會經濟人口學的結構性因素與選舉的決定有相當程度的關連;社會心理學派主張社會學因素是間接的,政黨認同、候選人評價、政見取向是直接的因素;理性學派則指出投票行為乃是基於成本和效用的估算結果。在這一個研究中,使用民國八十五年總統大選後的問卷調查資料,對上述三者,以及三者的可能整合作全盤的檢測。研究發現心理的研究途徑是最佳的單一模型型,理性的次之,結構的再次之。在兩兩結合方面,結構和心理的為最佳,心理和理性的次之,結構和理性的再次之。三者整合的模型又比單一的或兩兩結合的為佳,在變異的解釋量上有少許的增加。雖然增加的解釋力並不是很高,但模型中三個理論均仍有顯著的變項。研究發現三者有重疊的地方,任何一個均未能充分說明投票行為。因此,投票行為的整合理論,在將來應該會得到廣泛的重視和進一步的研究。
There are three major schools in the study of voting behavior, namely, sociological, sociopsychological and rational. Sociological school presents evidence that structural factors have high correlation coefficients between socioeconomic factors and voting choice. Sociopsychological school indicates that sociological factors are long term indirect determinants while party identification, candidate evalution, and issues are direct determinants. Rational approach suggests that the choices of vote is based on cost and benefit consideration. In this study, using post election survey data from the 1996 presidential election, three major approaches are tested thoroughly. In order to demonstrate that the integrated theory is better than those separated theories, seven possible combinations have been tested. The results show that psychological model is the best single model, ration and structural followed respectively. The best joint model is the combination of structural and psychological, followed by psychological and rational, and structural and rational. The intergrated model has slightly increased the explanatory power in terms of variance explained. Although the increase is not dramatic, the model maintains. This results suggest that the three approaches have overlapping explanation power, and no single model can claim to be the dominate model. Since the combined model can increase explanation power, thus, he integrated model should be emphasized in near future.
期刊論文
1.Miller, W. E.、Shanks, J. M.(1982)。Policy Directions and Presidential Leadership。British Journal of Political Science,12,357-374。  new window
2.Kramer, Gerald H.(1971)。Short-term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964。American Political Science Review,65(1),131-143。  new window
3.Page, B. I.、Jones, C. C.(1979)。Reciprocal effects of policy preferences, party loyalties and the vote。The American Political Science Review,73,1071-1090。  new window
4.Markus, G. B.、Converse, P. E.(1979)。A dynamic simultaneous equation model of electoral choice。American Political Science Review,73,1055-1070。  new window
5.Shanks, J. Merrill、Miller, Warren E.(1991)。Partisanship, Policy and Performance: The Reagan Legacy in the 1988 Election。British Journal of Political Science,21,129-197。  new window
6.Tufte, Edward R.(1975)。Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections。American Political Science Review,69(3),812-826。  new window
會議論文
1.謝復生、牛銘實(1996)。總統選舉中選民的投票抉擇:一個理性抉擇理論的分析。選舉制度、選舉行為與台灣地區政治民主化學術研討會,政治大學選舉研究中心 (會議日期: 1996/11/30-12/01)。政治大學公企中心。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.謝復生(19961231)。總統選舉選民投票行為之科際整合研究。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Lewis-Beck, Michael S.、Rice, Tom W.(1992)。Forecasting elections。Washington, D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press。  new window
2.SPSS Inc.、NoruŠis, Marija J.(1992)。SPSS/PC+ Advanced Statistics, Version 5.0。Chicago。  new window
3.Pomper, G. R.(1975)。Voter's Choice。New York:Dodd, Mead。  new window
4.Pomper, G. R.(1980)。Elections in America。New York:Dodd, Mead。  new window
5.Niemi, Richard G.、Weisberg, Herbert F.(1976)。Controversies in American Voting Behavior。San Francisco:W. H. Freeman and Company。  new window
6.Niemi, Richard G.、Weisberg, Herbert F.(1984)。Controversies in Voting Behavior。NY。  new window
7.Niemi, Richard G.、Weisberg, Herbert E.(1993)。Classics in Voting Behavior。Washington, DC:Congressional Quarterly Press。  new window
8.Nie, Norman H.、Verba, Sidney、Petrocik, John R.(1976)。The Changing American Voter。Harvard University Press。  new window
9.陳義彥、黃麗秋(1992)。選舉行為與政治發展。臺北市:黎明文化事業股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
10.Fiorina, Morris P.(1981)。Retrospective Voting in American National Elections。Yale University Press。  new window
11.Tufte, Edward R.(1978)。Political Control of the Economy。Princeton, N. J.:Princeton University Press。  new window
12.Berelson, Bernard R.、Lazarsfeld, Paul F.、McPhee, William N.(1954)。Voting。University of Chicago Press。  new window
13.Niemi, Richard G.、Weisberg, Herbert F.(1993)。Controversies in Voting Behavior。Congressional Quarterly Inc.。  new window
14.Key, V. O. Jr.(1966)。The Responsible Electorate。Cambridge, Massachusetts:Harvard University Press。  new window
15.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York:Harper and Row。  new window
16.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。New York:John Wiley and Sons, Inc.。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關著作
 
無相關點閱
 
QR Code
QRCODE