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題名：零和或雙贏﹖兩岸經貿交流新解
書刊名：人文及社會科學集刊
作者：林繼文／羅致政
作者(外文)：Lin, Jih-wen／Lo, Chih-cheng
出版日期：1998
卷期：10:1
頁次：頁33-77
主題關鍵詞：賽局理論；零和賽局；雙贏；兩岸關係；相對獲利；經濟互賴；中國統一；臺灣獨立；合作；衝突；Game theory；Zero-sum game；Win-win；Cross-strait relations；Relative-gains；Economic interdependence；Chinese reunification；Taiwan independence；Cooperation；Conflict
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(9) 博士論文(3) 專書(1) 專書論文(1)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:9
  • 共同引用共同引用:51
  • 點閱點閱:62
雖然兩岸交流不斷持續擴大，但臺海雙方對於交流所帶來的利弊得失，卻有極為
不同的評估與關注重點。在臺灣方面，雖然肯定兩岸經貿合作所帶來的利益，但也擔憂其可
能吞食的經濟及政治苦果。而北京方面也同樣對日趨緊密的兩岸經貿整合懷抱複雜的心態。
正因為臺灣與大陸雙方在價值判斷與關心焦點上的重大差異，兩岸的經貿關係呈現一種雙贏
與零和並存的特殊現象。為了解釋此一重要但卻常遭忽略的互動面向，作者引入「相對獲利
敏感度」此一變數，嘗試建構一個兩岸經貿互動的賽局模型。從此一模型中，我們導出數項
有趣的命題，並以一九九四年至一九九七年間兩岸的經貿交流資料進行實證檢驗。結果大致
支持我們的假說：「雙贏」的賽局可能因為政治互信度的降低而突然零和化。我們的發現與
部份現有研究相符，但同時也對一些傳統的論點與看法提出相當的挑戰。
Despite continuing and expanding interactions across the Taiwan Strait,
the two sides emphasize different concerns and have divergent perspectives on
calculating the costs and benefits of these exchanges. While appreciating the
benefits brought by cross-strait economic cooperation, Taipei has serious
concerns for possibles adverse effects on Taiwan's political and economic
security. For its part, Beijing has also mixed feelings about the increasing
economic integration between the two sides. The marked differences in their
respective values and concerns contribute to a mixture of win-win and zero-sum
situtions in cross-strait economic relations, with the former typer of situation
advancing mutual cooperation while the latter impeding it. To account for this
important but oft-neglected aspect of Taipei-Beijing interactions, we construct
a two-player game-theorecic model by incorporating the variable of sensitivity
to relative gains (SRG). Several interesting propositions are derived from the
model and tested against the empirical data of cross-strait economic and trade
exchanges between 1994 and 1997. Our hypotheses were largely verified. While
supporting some existing observations, our findings also pose serious challenges
to much conventional wisdom on Taipei-Beijing interactions.
期刊論文
1.Snidal, Duncan(1991)。Relative Gains and the Pattern of International Cooperation。The American Political Science Review，85(3)，701-726。  new window
2.Jervis, Robert(1978)。Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma。World Politics，30(2)，167-214。  new window
3.Stein, Arthur A.(1982)。Coordination and Collaboration: Regimes in an Anarchic World。International Organization，36(2)，299-324。  new window
4.Powell, Robert(1991)。Absolute and Relative Gains in International Relations Theory。The American Political Science Review，85(4)，1303-1320。  new window
5.Jervis, Robert(1982)。Security Regimes。International Organization，36(2)，357-378。  new window
6.Powell, Robert(1994)。Anarchy in International Relations Theory: the Neorealist-Neoliberal Debate。International Organization，48(2)，313-344。  new window
7.Christensen, Thomas J.、Snyder, Jack(1990)。Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity。International Organization，44(2)，137-168。  new window
8.吳介民(19960700)。經貿躍進，政治僵持?--後冷戰時代初期兩岸關係的基調與變奏。臺灣政治學刊，1，211-255。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Van Vranken Hickey, Dennis(1991)。Will Inter-China Trade Change Taiwan or the Mainland?。Orbis，35(4)，517-531。  new window
10.鍾琴、吳惠林、馬凱(19961100)。大陸投資應否設限。經濟前瞻，11(6)=48，24-41。  延伸查詢new window
11.Grieco, Joseph M.(1988)。Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism。International Organization，42(3)，485-507。  new window
12.Lo, Chih-Cheng、Lin, Jih-Wen(19950300)。Between Sovereignty and Security: A Mixed Strategy Analysis of Current Cross-Strait Interaction。Issues & Studies，31(3)，64-91。new window  new window
13.左原(19960500)。兩岸投資與貿易關聯性之分析。中國大陸研究，39(5)，5-22。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Axelrod, Robert、Keohane, Robert O.(1985)。Achieving Cooperation Under Anarchy: Strategies and Institutions。World Politics，38(1)，226-254。  new window
15.Suzuki, Motoshi(1994)。Economic Interdependence, Relative Gains, and International Cooperation: The Case of Monetary Policy Coordination。International Studies Quarterly，28，475-498。  new window
16.魏華(1992)。對當前兩岸經貿情勢之探討。中共研究，26(8)，38-46。  延伸查詢new window
17.羅致政(1996)。美國戰略性模糊政策對兩岸互動的影響。東吳政治學報，6，175-202。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.Cheng, Tun-Jen(1993)。Democracy and Taiwan-Mainland China Ties: A Critique of Three Dominant Views。Journal of Northeast Asian Studies，12(1)，72-89。  new window
19.Gowa, Joanne(1986)。Anarchy, Egoism, and Third Image。International Organization，40，67-86。  new window
20.Grieco, Joseph M.(1988)。Realist Theory and the Problem of International Cooperation: Analysis with an Amended Prisoner's Dilemma Model。Journal of Politics，50，600-624。  new window
21.Hopf, Ted(1991)。Polarity, The Offense-Defense Balance, and War。American Political Science Review，85，475-493。  new window
22.賈慶國(1994)。Toward the Center: Implications of Integration and Democratization for Taiwan's Mainland Policy。Journal of Northeast Asian Studies，13，49-63。  new window
23.Stein, Arthur(1980)。The Politics of Linkage。World Politics，33(1)，62-81。  new window
24.Phillipson, C.(1984)。International Cooperation in Economic and Security Affairs。World Politics，37(1)，1-23。  new window
會議論文
1.王鳳生(1992)。兩岸經貿互動關係與共同體之形成。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Rosecrance, Richard(1986)。The Rise of the Trading State。New York：Basic Books。  new window
2.Waltz, Kenneth N.(1979)。Theory of International Politic。Reading, Mass：Addison-Wesley Pub. Co。  new window
3.Grieco, Joseph M.(1990)。Cooperation Among Nations: Europe, America, and Non-tariff Barriers to Trade。Ithaca, NY：Cornell University Press。  new window
4.Leng, Tse-kang(1996)。The Taiwan-China Connection: Democracy and Development Across the Taiwan Straits。Boulder, Colo：Westview Press。  new window
5.Oye, Kenneth A.(1986)。Cooperation Under Anarchy。Princeton University Press。  new window
6.吳安家(1996)。台海兩岸關係的回顧與前瞻。臺北：永業出版社。  延伸查詢new window
7.Tsebelis, George(1990)。Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics。University of California Press。  new window
8.Morgenthau, Hans J.(1978)。Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace。Alfred A. Knopf。  new window
9.Gilpin, Robert、Gilpin, Jean M.(1987)。The Political Economy of International Relations。Princeton University Press。  new window
10.許信良(1995)。新興民族。遠流出版事業股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
11.Osborne, Martin J.、Rubinstein, Ariel(1994)。A Course in Game Theory。MIT Press。  new window
12.陳德昇(19940000)。兩岸政經互動：政策解讀與運作分析。臺北：永業。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Keohane, Robert O.(1989)。International Institutions and State Power: Essays in International Relations Theory。Westview Press。  new window
14.Rasmusen, Eric(1989)。Games and Information: An Introduction to Game Theory。Basil Blackwell。  new window
15.Keohane, Robert O.(1984)。After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy。Princeton University Press。  new window
16.Axelrod, Robert M.(1984)。The Evolution of Cooperation。Basic Books。  new window
17.Krasner, Stephen D.(1983)。International Regimes。Cornell University Press。  new window
18.王塗發(1994)。獨立建國確保臺灣經濟永續發展。獨立建國確保臺灣經濟永續發展。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
19.行政院新聞局(1995)。對中共所謂「不排除使用武力犯臺」之研析。對中共所謂「不排除使用武力犯臺」之研析。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
20.周添城(1993)。意見領袖的大陸經貿主張。意見領袖的大陸經貿主張。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
21.林向愷(1994)。臺灣、中國經貿關係的潛在危險及化解之道。臺灣、中國經貿關係的潛在危險及化解之道。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
22.國家發展會議秘書處(1996)。國家發展會議：兩岸關係議題總結報告。國家發展會議：兩岸關係議題總結報告。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
23.張榮豐(1989)。臺海兩岸經貿關係。臺海兩岸經貿關係。臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
24.劉映仙(1993)。兩岸經貿問題的現狀、問題和趨勢。海峽兩岸經貿關係探討。北京。  延伸查詢new window
25.Keohane, Robert O.(1989)。International Liberalism Reconsidered。Economic Limits to Modern Politics。Cambridge。  new window
26.Lohmann, Susanne(1995)。The Poverty of Green and Shapiro。The Rational Choice Controversy。New Haven。  new window
27.Nathan, Andrew(1992)。The Effects of Taiwan's Political Reforms on Taiwan-Mainland Relations。Political Change in Taiwan。Boulder。  new window
28.Quester, George(1988)。Offense and Defense in the International System。Offense and Defense in the International System。New York, NY。  new window
其他
1.中共中央(1995)。中共中央關於進一步加強對臺工作的通知，沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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