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題名:貧窮持續時間與再進入的動態分析:以1990-1998年之嘉義縣低收入戶為例
作者:王仕圖 引用關係
作者(外文):Wang, Shu-twu
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:社會福利系
指導教授:王德睦
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2001
主題關鍵詞:貧窮貧窮動態貧窮時段追蹤調查存活分析Cox模型再進入貧窮povertypoverty dynamicpoverty spellpanel studysurvival analysisCox modelturnover
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貧窮現象應該是一種連續的狀態,所以針對貧窮人口進行長期的追蹤有其必要性。國內貧窮研究一直欠缺利用貫時性的資料進行研究與分析,所以無法真正瞭解長期追蹤一群貧窮人口之後,其人口的特性究竟如何?特別是對國外利用長期追蹤調查的資料所獲致的結論,國內無法進行驗證與對照反省的工作。雖然國內有許多貧窮的相關研究,但是因為資料蒐集上的限制,大多數的研究屬於橫斷面(cross-sectional)的研究,這些研究雖然在貧窮現象上能夠進行分析,但是分析對象的適切性仍然值得存疑。
本研究乃1990-1998年之嘉義縣低收入家戶的追蹤資料,分析貧窮持續時間的動態﹑不同觀察方式下的貧窮持續時間的分佈﹑以及影響脫離貧窮的因素等。追蹤1990年的低收入戶並計算貧窮的持續時間,則貧窮的中位年數為4.69年,將近一半的家戶在第四年以前脫離貧窮,但仍然有四分之一的家戶在追蹤時間結束時尚未脫離貧窮。若以「貧窮時段」(poverty spell)為計算單位,貧窮的中位年數為3.97年,一半的家戶會在第四年以前脫離貧窮,有四分之一的家戶在追蹤時間結束時尚未脫離。不同觀察方式下的貧窮持續時間的分佈方面,完整的貧窮時段的分配部分,超過30%的家戶會在第二年以前脫離貧窮。從某一時間點觀察脫離貧窮者的持續間時分佈,一半以上的貧窮持續時間達8年以上的家戶所使用,這樣的結果使得「福利依賴」成為一個非常嚴重的問題。從「比例風險模型」的分析,可以瞭解低收入家戶戶長的年齡﹑教育年數﹑健康地位是影響家戶脫離貧窮風險的重要個人特質,在家戶特質部分,女性單親家戶和戶內具有工作能力人口則具有顯著的影響。
本研究所追蹤的低收入家戶中,曾經脫離貧窮的家戶為1,932戶,其中有186戶在脫離貧窮之後,經過一段時間又再度落入貧窮。家戶型態中,單身家庭是較不容易脫離者,具有工作能力人口數愈多,脫離貧窮的比率愈高。脫離貧窮家戶戶長的個人基本特質中,單身﹑無工作能力﹑﹑年紀較輕﹑未婚﹑且是身心障礙者,其脫離貧窮的比率是較低的。而一款﹑三代同堂﹑具有3人以上的工作能力人口﹑年齡較大﹑喪偶﹑且戶長的身體健康狀況為疾病者,其脫離貧窮的比率較高,然而其中有些容易脫離者的特質可能是因為戶長死亡而造成。對於脫貧又再度落入貧窮的家戶部分有186個家戶,分析結果發現再進入貧窮的家戶之中,佔脫離貧窮家戶的比率較高者包含單身家庭﹑沒有工作能力人口﹑沒有職業﹑離婚或未婚﹑以及身心障礙者。
在政策意涵中,多數的戶長均具備不利的條件,例如老年﹑身心障礙﹑沒有工作能力﹑與教育程度偏低等。對此老年無工作能力或身心障礙等弱勢人口,政府保障這些社會的弱勢人口責無旁貸。而對於具有工作能力的家戶,政府可以擬訂更為多元的方案,促進他們能夠自立自足,早日脫離貧窮。
Until the advent of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from the University of Michigan, most poverty researches in the past had concluded that poverty was a long-term phenomenon. This conclusion has since revised. It is the common belief now that among the poverty households only a few of them experienced long-term dependency. Most people who were ever poor had experienced only a short bout of duration in poverty. Thus, the issues of poverty duration or spells have since gained a great deal of attention among researchers. The present paper reports results of our study on this issue using the panel data of poverty households from Chia-Yi County during the 1990-1998 period. We analyzed the duration of poverty spells and the distributions of completed and uncompleted spells of poverty. We also report results of our analysis on factors affecting exit from poverty among these poverty households. The results of our analysis indicate that the median number of years of duration in poverty was 4.69 years, when cohort-based estimates were used. When the data on the spell of poverty households was used the median number of years in poverty was estimated to be 3.97 years. More than 50 percent of poverty households ended within 4 years and only one-quarter of poverty households were poor for over eight years. The results of comparing the completed and the uncompleted spells show that among the former the duration tended to be shorter than the latter. Among the completed spells, more than 30 percent of them ended within 2 years. However, in any given point in time, the bulk of poverty households were those experiencing a relatively long-term bout in poverty. When the proportional hazard model was examined, the age of the heads of households, the number of years of schooling, and the health status were found to be important factors of individual characteristics that contributing to the exit from poverty. Among the household characteristics, we found the single-parent households and the number of household members with the ability-to-work increased the probability of leaving poverty.
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