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題名:台灣的貧窮趨勢:界定、測量與指標應用
作者:何華欽 引用關係
作者(外文):Huachin Ho
校院名稱:國立中正大學
系所名稱:社會福利系
指導教授:王德睦
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2004
主題關鍵詞:貧窮測量貧窮門檻預算標準法貧窮人口組成貧窮趨勢貧窮強度貧窮不均度SST指標poverty measurementpoverty thresholdbudget standard approachpoverty population compositionpoverty trendsintensity of povertyinequality of povertySST indicator
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論文摘要
貧窮測量是一個運用極廣,且相當實用的方法。一方面它可以作為不同人口群、家戶、區域、時間的經濟福祉之比較,以做為檢視經濟發展與公共政策成效之評量基準;另一方面它亦可當做政策與方案之服務對象範圍界定之參考,可讓我們知道社會中還有那些弱勢者,仍需政府之介入來滿足其需求。
傳統上對社會整體貧窮狀況的測量皆是以貧窮率為指標。然此一指標的適當性自1970年代起已開始被學界廣泛的質疑。因為貧窮率僅能表達社會中貧窮人口比例,但卻無法由此指標得知,貧窮人口到底有多窮、窮人所得分配的不均度等訊息。自Sen(1976)以降許多研究者開始發展適當的貧窮指標,這些指標雖然仍在發展中,亦未有唯一受大家所公認最佳的指標存在。但多年發展之下,他們形成的共識是一個好的貧窮指標應至少包含三種訊息:一是貧窮率、一是貧窮的強度、一是貧窮的不均度。這些指標所指向的意涵,正可提供福利政策制訂所需的資訊。
本文的研究目的即在檢討既存的貧窮指標,找尋適宜的指標,用以描述臺灣近幾十年來的貧窮趨勢,及此趨勢變化之成因。要達到這個目的,
本文檢討相關文獻中貧窮測量方式,並以台灣的資料對較為合宜或資料可及的方式做適當的模擬。在可取得的次級資料的條件與政策的施行便利的限制條件下,本文使用Citro and Michael(1995)的FCSU預算乘數法來設定四口之家(兩大人兩小孩)預算,並考慮家戶規模、調整合適的均等比來設定貧窮門檻。
本文以SST指標來測量台灣的貧窮趨勢。由1986年開始至2002年,台灣的貧窮趨勢呈現W型曲線,1994年與2000年是W型曲線的最低點,貧窮程度較低;而1986年、1996年與2001年是W型曲線的最高點,貧窮程度較高,尤其以2001年的貧窮程度最高。SST多元貧窮指標是由貧窮率、貧窮強度、貧窮不均度三指標所構成,經由取對數後的變化幅度來看,貧窮率的變化較大、貧窮強度的變化較小,而貧窮不均度取對數後的數值接近一固定常數,由此發現貧窮率仍是一個較具影響力的指標,而貧窮不均度幾乎不影響SST數值的變化,此發現與Osberg(2000)的跨國貧窮研究結論相同。
進一步分析發現,小戶量家戶是較容易落入貧窮的類型,其中又以單人家戶的貧窮應受重視,這些單人家戶以男性老年戶長為主,經濟資源又匱乏,因此在社會救助上應重視此類型的家戶。近年來單人家戶貧窮的現象,由原來以老人戶長為主的現象,漸漸增加了中高齡戶長的比例,中高齡戶長的年齡層介於45歲至65歲之間,這類型人口的特性是轉業不易,在經濟轉型與不景氣的情況下,容易失業、落入貧窮,因此中高齡人口的輔導就業問題成為政策上需要關注的一群。除了單人家戶外,單親家戶也頗值得重視,單親家戶雖然貧戶比例較低,但是近年來家戶戶數不斷增加,頗值得注意其後續引發的社會現象。
Dissertation Abstract
Poverty measurement is a very practical and widely used method: it has been used as an indicator for the economic well-being of population groups, family, region and time period. Furthermore, it can be and has been used as the basis to evaluate economic development and to determine the effectiveness of public policy; and at the same time, it is also used as a reference to delineate the scope of needed services in policy and agenda formulation, and , therefore, provided us a clearer picture in identifying the disadvantaged groups that would need governmental intervention to meet their basic needs.
Poverty rates have been used as the indicators in measuring the over all poverty conditions in a society in the past. However, the appropriateness in using poverty rates as the indicators began to be questioned by academic circle in the 70s. This is due in part to the fact that poverty rates can only reflect the proportions of the population in entering into poverty. It fails to show the severity of poverty and the differential distribution of poverty among others. Beginning with Amartya Sen, scholars and researchers have been hard at work in developing appropriate poverty indices. However, to this day, a universally acceptable measure has yet to be developed. Over the years, however, some consensuses began to emerge. It is generally agreed by researchers that a good measure of poverty indicator should include three basic information: (1) poverty incidences; (2) intensity of poverty; and (3) differential distribution of poverty. The dynamics and the interrelationships among these three variables can provide very useful information for developing social welfare policy in a society.
This research aims to examine the established poverty indicators, and look for appropriate ones so as to interpret the recent poverty trend and its causes in Taiwan. On reviewing the poverty measurement in relative literatures, this thesis properly simulates the accessible data in Taiwan. Within the limitation of availability of secondary data, and the convenience of policy promotion, I adopt FCSU method from Citro and Michael, to position the budget for a family with two adults and two children. Meanwhile, family size and proper equivalence scale adjustment are additionally set up for determining the poverty threshold.
SST indicators are used to measure poverty trend in Taiwan, which presents as W curve from 1986 to 2002. The year 1994 and 2000 respectively are located at the lowest on the W curve, which means the lower poverty level, while the year 1986, 1996, and 2001 are on the peaks, which shows the higher poverty level. Especially the year 2001 is the highest among peaks. SST multi-indicators are composed of poverty rate, Intensity of poverty, and inequality of poverty. After logarithm, the change on rate is comparatively bigger; the intensity becomes smaller, and the inequality gets close to a stable constant. Therefore, the poverty rate is still regarded as more influential indicator, while the inequality of poverty hardly affects the SST value. This result if identical to Osberg(2000)’s poverty studies on cross countries.
The analysis furthers finds that the small family size falls easily into the poverty category, among which, the single person households should be regarded, especially the male senior headed households. They are short of economic resources, and whom the social aids should go to. For recent years, the poverty phenomenon has spread to the middle-aged group who are between age 45 to 65. This population cannot easily transfer their occupation, getting more unemployed and falls into poverty during the economic gloom. Thus, how to assist the middle-aged group for jobs becomes the policy’s next focus. Besides, due to the rising number of household, though poverty rate is relatively low, the single person households and the social sequences are worth attention as well.
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