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題名:中止犯、持續犯與一般青少年生命歷程及其再犯影響因素之研究
作者:李國隆
校院名稱:中央警察大學
系所名稱:犯罪防治研究所
指導教授:許春金、陳玉書
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2013
主題關鍵詞:持續犯中止犯非正式社會控制存活分析生命歷程再犯Persistent OffenderDesisterUnoffical Social ControlSurvival AnalysisLife CourseReoffend
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(4) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 點閱點閱:87
1990年以降,犯罪生命歷程研究逐漸受到重視,其中以Sampson和Laub、Moffit等人之研究最具代表性。本研究主要目的在透過中止犯與持續犯之調查和官方犯罪記錄,達成五項主要研究目的:(1)探討研究樣本自少年至成年之犯罪變化型態,以檢視年齡與犯罪之關係;(2)建立我國犯罪青少年中止或持續犯罪之存活分析模型;(3)運用10年追蹤和訪談資料,分析中止犯、持續犯與一般少年至成年的生命歷程發展之異同;(4)建構青少年罪生命歷程理論模型;(5) 提出中止青少年犯罪防治對策相關建議。
本研究運用許春金、馬傳鎮等於1997至1999年於板橋和新莊地區對817位犯罪組與一般組青少年之調查資料,並整合2007年追蹤刑案記錄;以「初犯年齡」、「低自控狀況」、「父母親控制」、「家庭負面關係」、「初次偵查案件是否為毒品犯罪」、「偏差友伴」等六個變數Kaplan Meier分析。研究發現除了「初犯年齡」的存活狀態未達顯著水準外,其餘五個變項,皆有顯著不同的存活狀態。進一步以「低自控狀況」、「父母親控制」、「家庭負面關係」、「初次偵查案件是否為毒品犯罪」、「偏差友伴」等五個變項做為自變項,以「存活時間」做為依變項進行Cox迴歸分析。則發現所導出的三種迴歸方程式,對於預測存活時間皆有顯著性。綜合量化與質性分析的結果,本研究發現:「毒品犯罪」、「偏差友伴」、「父母親控制」、「家庭負面關係」、「低自控狀況」、「切斷過去不良的影響」、「服兵役」等變項,對犯罪中止與持續有著重要的影響,並依上述變項建構出我國犯罪青少年中止與持續犯罪模式。對於犯罪青少年的處遇,以及預防再犯,本研究也提出以下建議:應對青少年犯罪進行持續防治;協助青少年低自我控制因素的因應;持續強化反毒與戒治工作;家庭與學校功能提升的協助;對青少年偏差友伴予以管控;切斷過去不良的影響;增強正向事件對青少年的影響,以及兵役制度的配套措施規劃。
In criminology research, survival analysis is a good method to use for analysis the relationship between age and reoffending, or the life course in different sample groups in longitudinal studies. There are many scholars use survival analysis to discuss the crime persistent and desistent in life course research, the most common is to analysis the criminal reoffending after they left jail, or rearrested. The survival analysis used in criminology research still not common in Taiwan. This study use the survival analysis methods to discuss the different of reoffending situation between desister, persister, and normal Adolescent, to understand it will effected by the factors in their life course or not.
This study use the data of Sheu &; Ma’s research, the data is survey to 817 Juvenile delinquency and normal adolescent samples who lived in Banqiao and Xinzhuang Districts, New Taipei City during 1997~1999. The Kaplan Meier analysis shows that in addition to the age of first crime, the other variables as low self-control, parents control, negative relationship of family, Drug-related crimes as the first crime, delinquency friends, all have different survival time. In Cox regression analysis, we used low self-control, parents control, negative relationship of family, Drug-related crimes as the first crime, delinquency friends, as independent variables, the survival time as dependent variable. There are three models of Cox regression, all three models are significant. These variables can forecasting the survival time, especially drug using. To conclude, this study finds that the factors like drug abuse, delinquent friends, parent’s control, negative relationship in family, low self control, cut the past effection, military service etc., can affect youth to persist, or desist in criminal life course.
About preventing and correcting with delinquency youth, we suggest that should continuous enhance the guidance of teen-agers, enhance the response ability of low self-control, enhance the anti-drug and rehabilitation works, and improve the family negative relationship, control the delinquency friends, cut the past effection, and reconsider the military service system.
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