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題名：衝突分析的先導研究--結合判斷分析與系統動力學的方法
書刊名：中國行政評論
作者：蕭乃沂 引用關係
作者(外文)：Hsiao, Naiyi
出版日期：2002
卷期：11:2
頁次：頁77-114
主題關鍵詞：參與性政策分析；社會判斷理論；判斷分析；系統動力學；衝突分析；Participatory policy analysis；Social judgment theory；Judgment analysis；System dynamics modeling；Conflict analysis
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  • 共同引用共同引用:43
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參與性政策分析(participatory policy analysis)本質上是一個政策利害關係人 ( policy stakeholders)在不同政策偏好( preferences )之間衝突分析與調解(conflict analysis and resolution)的過程。據此觀點，本文建議一個結合判斷分析( judgment analysis)與系統動力學(system dynamics)政策模擬的衝突分析方法，並利用一實際 的政策個案加以驗證此方法。 此衝突分析方法先將政策偏好解構為政策方案(policy alternatives; policy means ) 與其導致的政策產出(policy outcomes; policy ends)，並利用判斷分析的問卷設計，粹取(extract )各政策利害關係人在政策目標與政策方案中所有評估面向的相對權重( relative weights)，隨後並應用系統動力學模擬推薦的政策方案，將判斷分析與政策模擬的產出結合，使個別政策利害關係人在政策方案與政策產出的總效用(total utility )對比，藉以輔助衝突中介與調解的進行。 本先導研究發現所建議的衝突分析方法足以有效輔助衝突調解過程，並且如預期地可以明確化(explicate )傳統衝突分析方法無從顯示的衝突調解可能，進一步的驗證與發展則有賴對於實際政策個案的持續研究。
Participatory policy analysis, in essence, aims for an effective process in which the policy preferences and conflict among policy stakeholders may be analyzed and resolved. The present study proposes an approach of conflict analysis combining Judgment Analysis and System Dynamics modeling. It is further empirically examined by a policy case. The proposed procedure firstly differentiates policy preferences between policy means (policy alternatives) and policy ends (policy outcomes). The policy-capturing questionnaire of Judgment Analysis is then used to extract the stakeholders' preferences on both regards. Then the System Dynamics policy model simulates the recommended policy alternatives and produce simulated policy outcome. They form the bases for estimating the total utilities on recommended policy means and policy ends. The parallel is expected to be constructive for analyzing and mediating mutual conflicts among policy stakeholders. The results has confirmed that the proposed procedure of conflict analysis can effectively serve its purpose, and further explicate the possibilities for conflict resolution that can not be foreseen by the traditional methods of conflict analysis. Subsequent studies should build on the policy model of the interested policy issues.
期刊論文
1.Richardson, G. P.、Andersen, D. F.(1997)。Scripts for group model building。System Dynamics Review，13(2)，107-129。  new window
2.Kelly, M.(1993)。Policy Analysis in the Post-Positivist Era: Engaging Stakeholders in Evaluating the Economic Development Districts Program。Public Administration Review，53(2)，135-142。  new window
3.Dawes, R. M.、Corrigan, B.(1974)。Linear Models in Decision Making。Psychological Bulletin，81，95-106。  new window
4.Durning, Dan(1993)。Participatory Policy Analysis in a Social Service Agency: A Case Study。Journal of Policy Analysis and Management，12(2)，297-322。  new window
5.韓釗(20000300)。面對動態性複雜系統：二十一世紀政府必須具備的能力。思與言，38(1)，123-146。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.余致力(20000900)。民意與公共政策：表達方式的釐清與因果關係的探究。中國行政評論，9(4)，81-110。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.侯漢君(19980800)。系統動態的決策模式：以土地規劃為例。行政學報，29，151-212。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.汪銘生、黃國良(19911000)。高雄市製造業勞動條件之研究--社會判斷理論之應用。管理評論，1-21。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Tulloss, J. K.(1995)。Citizen Participation for in Boston Development Policy。Urban Affairs Review，30(4)，514-537。  new window
10.Wagchal, U.(1997)。Direct Democracy and Public Policymaking。Journal of Public Policy，17(3)，223-245。  new window
11.Steelman, T. A.、Ascher, W.(1997)。Public Involvement Methods in Natural Resource Policy Making: Advantages, Disadvantages and Trade-offs。Policy Sciences，30，71-90。  new window
12.Renn, Ortwin、Webber, Thomas、Rakel, Horst、Daniel, Peter、Johnson, Branden(1993)。Public Participation in Decision Making: A Three-Step Procedure。Policy Sciences，26(3)，189-214。  new window
13.Pelletier, D.、Kraak, V.、McCullum, C.、Uusitalo, U.、Rich, R.(1999)。The Shaping of Collective Values through Deliberative Democracy: An Empirical Study from New York's North Country。Policy Sciences，32，103-131。  new window
14.Kathlene, L.、Martin, J. A.(1991)。Enhancing Citizen Participation: Panel Designs, Perspectives, and Policy Formation。Journal of Policy Analysis and Management，10(1)，46-63。  new window
15.Hammond, K. R.、Klita, J. K.、Cook, R. L.(1978)。How Systems Analysts Can Provide More Effective Assistance to the Policy Maker。Journal of Applied Systems Analysis，5(2)，111-136。  new window
16.Hammond, K. R.、Mumpower, J. L.、Smith, T. H.(1977)。Linking Environmental Models with Models of Human Judgment: A Symmetrical Decision Aid。IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics，7，358-367。  new window
17.Andersen, D. F.、Rohrbaugh, J.(1992)。Some Conceptual and Technical Problems in Integrating Models of Judgment with Simulation Models。IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics，22(1)，21-34。  new window
18.汪銘生、楊仁壽、楊仁壽(1991)。以實驗法對三種多屬性權重衡量模式的比較。管理科學學報，8(1)，93-107。  延伸查詢new window
19.Fischer, F.(1993)。Citizen Participation and the Democratization of Policy Expertise: From Theoretical Inquiry to Practical Case。Policy Science，26(3)，165-187。  new window
20.郭昱瑩(2000)。歲入預測中的專家決斷與調整：紐約州零售稅預測個案研究。國立中山大學社會科學季刊，2(3)，113-150。  延伸查詢new window
21.DeLeon, P.(1992)。The Democratization of the Policy Sciences。Public Administration Review，52(2)，125-129。  new window
22.蕭乃沂(2001)。動態政策環境中的決策輔助：標竿學習的實驗研究。行政暨政策學報，3，213-264。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.Richardson, G. P.、Andersen, D. F.、Lurie, I.、Ratanawijitrasin, S.(1990)。Simulating the Dynamics of Social Program Management: The Case of JOBS Implementation。San Francisco, CA。  new window
2.郭昱瑩(2001)。多屬性效用模型於公共政策的應用：以強制機車責任險可投保處所為例。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
3.蕭乃沂(1998)。Conflict Analysis of Public Policy Stakeholders Combining Judgment Analysis and System Dynamics Modeling。The International System Dynamics Conference。  new window
學位論文
1.黃國良(1994)。中介策略與地方建設環境紛爭處理之研究：認知衝突與利益衝突的角度(博士論文)。國立中山大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.deLeon, Peter(1997)。Democracy and the Policy Sciences。Democracy and the Policy Sciences。Albany, NY：State University of New York Press。  new window
2.Keeney, Ralph L.、Raiffa, Howard(1993)。Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs。Cambridge University Press。  new window
3.謝長宏(1980)。系統動態學--理論、方法與實用。台北市：中興管理出版社。  延伸查詢new window
4.Cooksey, R. W.(1996)。Judgment Analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications。University of New England。  new window
5.Sterman, John D.(2000)。Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World。Irwin McGraw-Hill。  new window
6.陶在樸(1999)。系統動態學。臺北：五南出版社。  延伸查詢new window
7.丘昌泰(1995)。公共政策：當代政策科學理論之研究。臺北市：巨流圖書公司。  延伸查詢new window
8.Stephenson, M. O.、Pops, G. M.(1990)。Managing Conflict in the Policy Process。Theory and Research in Conflict Management。NY。  new window
9.Nagel, S.(1990)。Multicriteria Dispute Resolution through Computer-aided Mediation。Conflict Resolution and Public Policy。NY。  new window
10.翁興利(1999)。公共政策－知識應用與政策制定。公共政策－知識應用與政策制定。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.Shim, J.(2001)。Applications of Judgment Analysis to Public Policy Formulation: A Literature Review and Analysis，Albany, NY。  new window
圖書論文
1.Meadows, Donella H.(1980)。The unavoidable a priori。Elements of the System Dynamics Method。Waltham, MA：Cambridge MA：Pegasus Communications：Productivity Press。  new window
2.Stewart, T. R.(1988)。Judgment Analysis: Procedures。Human Judgment: The SJT View。North-Holland。  new window
 
 
 
 
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