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題名：「天然災害老人弱勢族群社經脆弱度評估指標」之建立與空間聚集性分析應用
書刊名：都市與計劃
作者：林文苑
作者(外文)：Lin, Wen-yen
出版日期：2011
卷期：38:3
頁次：頁219-243
主題關鍵詞：天然災害；老人弱勢族群；脆弱度評估指標；空間統計分析；Natural disasters；Disadvantaged elderly population；Vulnerability assessment indicators；Spatial statistical analysis
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(7) 博士論文(2) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:4
  • 共同引用共同引用:109
  • 點閱點閱:105
對於自然災害（如風災、水災、地震等）的受災者而言，年老的長輩可能遭受影響的風險相對較高，爲了降低老人弱勢族群面臨災害時的威脅，在各類災害管理的對策上皆應有特殊之考量與作爲。然而，不同的背景屬性所可能產生的災害威脅皆有所差異，即使是性質相同的弱勢族群，也會因不同的背景屬性而有不同的影響程度，亦即同一弱勢族群暴露(expose)在不同災害風險下所產生的脆弱度(vulnerability)差異。目前國內外關於災害管理的相關研究，多對於不同的族群有差異性的考量，但對於如何清楚區隔同質族群脆弱程度的評估條件上，則仍存在相當大的討論與整合空間。本研究以老人族群爲研究對象，探討同質之弱勢族群在天然災害威脅下的脆弱程度差異，據以建立一套區隔脆弱程度的評估指標；研究中運用模糊德爾菲法確立指標項目，並透過層級分析法決定指標權重；再將評估結果經由空間統計分析(spatial statistic analysis)瞭解其空間聚集性(spatial clustering)，研究結果顯示台灣本島各區域的鄉鎮市區確實存在顯著的空間聚集。此一成果可作爲相關研究於進行老人弱勢族群在災害威脅下的脆弱度分析之參考，以及強化政府相關部門對弱勢族群的防救災能力，減少弱勢族群致災機會及受災時之傷亡損失程度。
When the elderly are victims of natural disasters, such as typhoons, floods, and earthquakes, they may be at high risk for injury and property losses. To minimize threats to the disadvantaged elderly, special strategies are needed for different disaster stages. Notably, different types and scales of disasters have varying threats. For the same group under different scales of disasters, disadvantaged populations have different degrees of vulnerability. Many disaster-related studies have different risk factors for different populations or groups. However, how to assess the degrees of vulnerability of a single group remains unclear. In this study, disadvantaged elderly are the research subjects. This study discusses various degrees of vulnerability for disadvantaged elderly under threats of natural disasters, and develops a set of assessment indicators for social and economic vulnerability. These indicators are examined and weighted using the Fuzzy Delphi process and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). After establishing this set of indicators, an application of empirical data validation includes spatial statistical analysis, utilizes these indicators to determine the degree of vulnerability of the elderly, as well tests the significance of spatial clustering. Analytical results demonstrate that statistically significant relationships exist for elderly vulnerability among townships in Taiwan. This study can be a reference for analyzing elderly vulnerability under threats of natural disasters, and for reviewing the suitability of governmental disaster management strategies to reduce possible casualties and property losses.
期刊論文
1.洪于婷、鄒克萬(20061200)。地方永續發展空間結構變遷之分析。都市與計劃，33(4)，321-344。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.鄒克萬(20000600)。區域人口分布之時空分析。臺灣土地科學學報，1，33-49。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Hancock, T.(2001)。People, partnerships and progress: Building community capital。Health Promotion International，16(3)，275-280。  new window
4.郭瑞坤、徐家楓(20080900)。社區文化資產保存之影響因素研究：從社會資本觀點探討。都市與計劃，35(3)，253-268。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Morrow, B. H.(1999)。Identifying and mapping community vulnerability。Disasters，23(1)，1-18。  new window
6.謝純瑩、周國屏(20021200)。應用空間自相關分析於人口老化時空變遷之研究。人口學刊，25，91-119。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Dow, K.(1992)。Exploring differences in our common future(s): The meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change。Geoforum，23(3)，417-436。  new window
8.Cutter, S. L.(1996)。Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards。Progress in Human Geography，20(4)，529-539。  new window
9.Getis, A.、Ord, J. K.(1992)。The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics。Geographical Analysis，24(3)，189-206。  new window
10.Anselin, Luc(1995)。Local Indicators of Spatial Association: LISA。Geographical Analysis，27(2)，93-115。  new window
11.劉介宇、洪永泰、莊義利、陳怡如、翁文舜、劉季鑫、梁賡義(20060600)。臺灣地區鄉鎮市區發展類型應用於大型健康調查抽樣設計之研究。健康管理學刊，4(1)，1-22。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Ord, J. K.、Getis, A.(1995)。Local spatial autocorrelation statistics: Distributional issues and an application。Geographical Analysis，27(4)，286-306。  new window
13.Boruff, B.、Emrich, C.、Cutter, C.(2005)。Erosion hazard vulnerability of US coastal counties。Journal of Coastal Research，21(5)，932-942。  new window
14.Haddad, M.、Nedović-Budić, Z.(2006)。Using spatial statistics to analyze intra-urban inequalities and public intervention in Sao Paulo, Brazil。Journal of Human Development，7(1)，85-109。  new window
15.Ferndez, L.、Byard, D.、Lin, C.C.、Benson, S.、Barbera, J.(2002)。Frail elderly as disaster victims: Emergency management strategies。Prehospital and Disaster Medicine，17(2)，67-74。  new window
16.Le Gallo, J.、Ertur, C.(2003)。Exploratory spatial data analysis of the distribution of regional per capita GDP in Europe, 1980-1995。Journal of Economics，82(2)，175-201。  new window
17.Marandola, E.、Hogan, D.(2006)。Vulnerabilities and. risks in population and environment studies。Population and Environment，28(2)，83-112。  new window
18.Orford, S.(2004)。Identifying and comparing changes in the spatial concentrations of urban poverty and affluence: A case study of inner London。Computers, Environment and Urban Systems，28(6)，701-717。  new window
會議論文
1.張歆祐、林文苑、張歆儀(2009)。人口結構變遷對災害管理影響之初探1-7。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.江宜錦(2007)。天然災害統計指標建構與分析--以台灣各縣市為例(碩士論文)。銘傳大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.秦立林(2005)。土石流災害下行動弱勢族群疏散避難決策行為之研究。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.伍家民(2006)。老人社會福利機構火災安全管理評估之研究。長榮大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.梅陳玉嬋、齊銥、徐玲(200610)。老人學。台北市：五南。  延伸查詢new window
2.林俊全(2004)。台灣的天然災害。台北：遠足文化事業有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
3.張紹勳、張紹評、林秀娟(2002)。SPSS for windows統計分析：初等統計與高等統計。台北：松崗。  延伸查詢new window
4.吳杰穎、邵珮君、林文苑、柯于璋、洪鴻智、陳天健、陳亮全、黃智彥、詹士樑、薩支平(2007)。災害管理學辭典。臺北：五南出版社。  延伸查詢new window
5.Pelling, M.(2003)。The Vulnerability of Cities-Natural Disasters and Social Resilience。London：Earthscan Publications Ltd.。  new window
6.Cliff, Andrew D.、Ord, John K.(1973)。Spatial Autocorrelation。Pion。  new window
7.Anselin, L.(1989)。What is Special About Spatial Data? Alternative Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis。Santa Barbara。  new window
8.Cannon, T.(1994)。Vulnerability analysis and the explanation of 'natural' disaster。Disasters, Development and Environment。New York。  new window
9.Drabek, T.、Hoetmer, G.(1991)。Emergency Management: Principle and Practice for Local Government。Washington, DC。  new window
10.Kates, R.(1985)。The interaction of climate and society。Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of the Interaction of Climate and Society。New York。  new window
11.Lin, W.(1997)。Spatial Analysis Techniques for the Comparison of Spatial Data Sets from Urban Models。Philadelphia。  new window
12.Susman, P.、O'Keef, P.、Wisner, B.(1983)。Global disasters: A radical interpretation。Interpretations of Calamity from the Viewpoint of Human Ecology。Boston。  new window
13.Wisner, B.(2004)。Assessment of capability and vulnerability。Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development and People。London：Earthscan。  new window
其他
1.何燦群，林峰田(2002)。台灣人口聚集性動態分析，http://ngis2.moi.gov.tw/Storage/MOI_NGIS/journal/41/003.htm， 20090915。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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