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題名:臺灣股市之動能效應:觀察投資組合之高階動差特性與條件風險值之應用
書刊名:管理學報
作者:古永嘉 引用關係黃美綺林柏廷
作者(外文):Goo, Yeong-jiaHuang, Mei-chiLin, Po-ting
出版日期:2015
卷期:32:4
頁次:頁371-384
主題關鍵詞:動能策略條件風險值夏普比率穩定尾部調整報酬率瑞秋比率Momentum strategyConditional VaRSharpe ratioStable tailed adjusted returns ratioRachev ratio
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:19
  • 點閱點閱:18
本研究以創新角度,導入偏峰態高階動差與條件風險值,探討近年來台股最佳動能投資策略。以累積報酬率、夏普比率、穩定尾部調整報酬率與瑞秋比率等作為建立投資組合的四個準則。後兩者以條件風險值作為風險指標,考量股票報酬非常態分配特性。我們依贏家、輸家組合及不同形成期及持有期,檢視動能或動能反轉策略在台股之投資績效。實證結果提供了在台灣股市建立投資策略與風險管理之重要參考。我們發現以輸家組合之瑞秋比率選股準則獲得最高之年報酬率,且以左偏高狹峰輸家組合之瑞秋比率獲得最高年報酬率58%。報酬以九至十二個月的長期投資組合為佳。高報酬的投資組合多屬於輸家具有左偏且高狹的特性,反映台股屬淺碟型市場,股市常過度反應而產生動能反轉現象。因台股價格波動大,以瑞秋比率為選取準則可控制極端之投資風險,獲取較大投資報酬。
The study incorporates skewness and kurtosis of stock returns and the conditional VaR for the recent Taiwan stock market to explore profitable momentum strategies from a fresh perspective. It utilizes cumulative returns, the Sharpe ratio, the stable tailed adjusted returns ratio, and the Rachev ratio as the portfolio selection criteria. The latter two criteria further take non-normality of stock returns into account by using the Conditional VaR as the risk index. We classify winner or loser portfolios, and examine investment performances of momentum or momentum reversal strategies for various formation and holding periods. The findings provide insights into investment strategies and risk management in the Taiwan stock market. The study finds that the loser portfolios with the Rachev ratio criteria deliver the highest annualized returns, and portfolios which show left-skewed and high-kurtosis characteristics provide the best annualized return of 58%. Investors holding stocks for 9 to 12 months receive the most fruitful profits. The high returns from loser, left-skewed and high-kurtosis portfolios indicate the reversal pattern and the overshooting feature in the volatile "plate-form" stock market in Taiwan. Thus, investors are likely to gain from the stock market by using the Rachev ratio as the portfolio selection principle because extreme risks in the volatile stock market are considered.
期刊論文
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8.Chang, C. Y.(2011)。The relationship between the 52-week high of an individual stock and stock market index level: Evidence from Taiwan。Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money,21(1),14-27。  new window
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10.Favre, L.、Galeano, J. A.(2002)。Mean-modified value-atrisk optimization with hedge funds。Journal of Alternative Investments,5(2),21-25。  new window
11.Mulvey, J. M.、Erkan, H. G.(2006)。Applying CVaR for decentralized risk management of financial companies。Journal of Banking and Finance,30(2),627-644。  new window
12.Liao, L. C.、Chou, R. Y.、Chiu, B.(2013)。Anchoring effect on foreign institutional investors' momentum trading behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market。North American Journal of Economics and Finance,26,72-91。  new window
13.Quaranta, G. A.、Zaffaroni, A.(2008)。Robust optimization of conditional value at risk and portfolio selection。Journal of Banking and Finance,32(10),2046-2056。  new window
14.Stoyanov, S. V.、Rachev, S. T.、Fabozzi, F. J.(2013)。CVaR sensitivity with respect to tail thickness。Journal of Banking and Finance,37(3),977-988。  new window
15.Zakamouline, V.、Koekebakker, S.(2009)。Portfolio performance evaluation with generalized Sharpe ratios: Beyond the mean and variance。Journal of Banking and Finance,33(7),1242-1254。  new window
16.Basak, S.、Shapiro, A.(2001)。Value at risk based risk management: Optimal policies and asset prices。Review of Financial Studies,14(2),371-405。  new window
17.Du, Ding、Huang, Zhaodan、Liao, Bih-Shuang(2009)。Why is there no momentum in the Taiwan stock market?。Journal of Economics and Business,61(2),140-152。  new window
18.Doukas, J. A.、McKnight, P. J.(2005)。European momentum strategies, information diffusion and investor conservatism。European Financial Management,11(3),313-338。  new window
19.Hameed, Allaudeen、Kusnadi, Yuanto(2002)。Momentum Strategies: Evidence from Pacific Basin Stock Markets。The Journal of Financial Research,25(3),383-397。  new window
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22.Antoniou, Antonios、Lam, Herbert Y. T.、Paudyal, Krishna(2007)。Profitability of Momentum Strategies in International Markets: The Role of Business Cycle Variables and Behavioural Biases。Journal of Banking & Finance,31(3),955-972。  new window
23.Chordia, Tarun、Shivakumar, Lakshmanan(2002)。Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time-varying Expected Returns。Journal of Finance,57(2),985-1019。  new window
24.Sharpe, William F.(1966)。Mutual fund performance。Journal of Business,39(1),119-138。  new window
25.Sharpe, William F.(1994)。The Sharpe ratio。The Journal of Portfolio Management,21(1),49-58。  new window
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27.Chan, Louis K. C.、Jegadeesh, Narasimhan、Lakonishok, Josef(1996)。Momentum Strategies。Journal of Finance,51(5),1681-1713。  new window
28.Avramov, Doron、Chordia, Tarun、Jostova, Gergana、Philipov, Alexander(2007)。Momentum and credit rating。Journal of Finance,62(5),2503-2520。  new window
29.洪茂蔚、林宜勉、劉志諒(20070900)。動能投資策略之獲利性與影響因素。中山管理評論,15(3),515-546。new window  延伸查詢new window
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學位論文
1.張尚遠(2007)。動量策略應用於台灣股市(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.陳達新(2007)。財務風險管理:工具、衡量與未來發展。台北:雙葉書廊有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Pflug, G.(2000)。Some remarks on the value-at-risk and the conditional value-at-risk。Probabilistic constrained optimization: Methodology and applications。Boston:Kluwer Academic Publishers。  new window
 
 
 
 
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