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題名:我國製造業產業結構變遷之初探
作者:林幸君 引用關係
作者(外文):Hsing-Chun Lin
校院名稱:國立臺北大學
系所名稱:經濟學系
指導教授:許松根
劉崇堅
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2001
主題關鍵詞:產業結構變遷生產函數之認定波動檢定SUR模型Entropy指數Fluctuation Test
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本文旨在探討我國濟發展中影響產業結構變動原因,研究期間及對象為戰後1961年以來,製造業及其民生消費、中間財、資本財產業。本文研究內容,除緒論及結論外,另分三章:包括文獻回顧與產業結構變動程度的衡量、製造業生產函數之認定與產業特性之檢定、產業結構變動原因之探討等。
過去探討台灣經濟發展過程文獻,例如: Kuznet(1979)、Thorbeck(1979)、Ranis(1979)、邢慕寰(1986)、李國鼎及陳木在(1987)等研究結果大多認為,國內經濟快速發展主要來源為產業結構調整及投入要素生產力提高。另一方面, 1990年代學者曾陸續對於戰後新加坡、香港、台灣、南韓等亞洲四小龍,經濟快速發展的原因進行探討,並且提出與過去不盡相同的看法,例如: Lau 與Klein (1990)、Krugman(1994)、Young(1994)、Young (1995)、Hsieh (1999)等研究結果認為,這些國家快速的產出成長率,其實肇因於全面性生產要素累積的擴增,而非來自技術的進步,此種對於經濟成長原因的闡釋方式,不同於過去西歐產業先進國家所解釋工業革命的發生原因。
然而以上研究,主要以經濟發展理論及國民所得統計指標,探討過去經濟發展與產業結構變遷的關係,惟由以上文獻中延伸出,是否還有其他衡量產業結構變動的角度,因此,本文首先參考Tsiang(1964)生產函數之設定,將製造業生產函數設定成Cobb-Douglas型態,並以不同虛擬變數設定不同時期,建立實證迴歸模型,利用相關統計資料,及統計上確認迴歸結果的依據準則,認定初步生產函數最適模型,其次,應用Ploberger et. al (1989)波動檢定(Fluctuation Test),以及Zellner(1962)SUR模型,檢定製造業生產函數中產出與要素關係是否在不同階段、產業及要素發生結構性變動,確立最後的最適生產函數模型,並針對各產業之要素邊際生產力與規模報酬等產業特性,進行產業內及產業間之檢定,探討影響產業結構變動原因。
在產業結構變動的衡量層面,以Entropy指數為基本指標,應用Theil1960年代將Entropy指數,以產業間及產業內因素組成進一步拆解的方法,推導出Entropy指數因素組成的單層分解一般式,直接計算Entropy指數並且進行拆解,以離析影響產業內及產業間原因。
最後,本文獲得幾項主要結果:
第一,總產業Entropy指數自1966年以後為較低時期,總產業結構變動主要受到工業部門影響。
第二,1961至1980年製造業總Entropy指數上升,主要受到產業內因素組成影響。其中產業內因 素組成上升主要受資本財產業影響,資本財產業生產份額上升以及個別指數提高,使得產業內因素組成升高,而資本財產業生產份額上升主因電力電子業生產份額提高且為最大中業。
第三,1994年以後製造業總Entropy指數下降,主要受到產業間因素組成影響。以生產函數估計結果,1961至1998年製造業與其他產業產出變動(logY)呈上升趨勢,資本財產業成長幅度最速,與製造業的差異逐年縮小,民生消費產業成長幅度較慢,與製造業的差異逐年擴大,加以資本財產業生產份額不斷提高成為最大產業,抵銷民生消費產業間因素組成上升,使得資本財產業產業間因素組成下降,帶動製造業總產業間因素組成下降。因此,製造業產業間因素組成下降,主因資本財產業不斷成長生產份額不斷提高。
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