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題名：地方永續發展時空變遷之研究
作者：洪于婷
作者(外文)：Yu-Ting Hung
校院名稱：國立成功大學
系所名稱：都市計劃學系碩博士班
指導教授：鄒克萬
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2006
主題關鍵詞：地方永續發展變遷D-S-R系統；永續空間模式；永續性結構；地方永續發展；Local Sustainable Development Change D-S-R Syste；Sustainable Spatial Pattern；Structure of Sustainability；Local Sustainable Development
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本研究旨在探討台灣本島各地方永續發展在時間變遷上所呈現的空間狀態，以及其影響永續狀態的潛在構面、相互影響因素、影響程度與關係等發展變遷機制。
首先，以符合台灣本島地區特性的角度與因應地方發展特質的觀點，將地方永續指標系統依六個構面，共擬定29個指標項目。其次，在靜態空間上，運用多變量統計分析技術，以有效的掌握探討永續發展變遷狀況。先以因子分析將29個指標縮簡為11個因子，共可解釋66.16%的結構變異量，再運用二階段群落分析方法，將307個研究單元，依其重要特質分成13個同質性的發展變遷群落；繼而，配合地理資訊系統、整體空間自我相關分析與地區性空間自我相關分析等技術之運用，進行各研究單元其永續性結構及變遷之探討，結果顯示存在明顯的空間正相關及多核心空間結構。
最後，在地方永續發展變遷機制部份，配合相關文獻與先驗知識，本研究提出地方永續發展變遷D-S-R系統之研究構想，以說明地方發展在時間累積作用力與時間延遲的影響下，其驅動力、狀態與回應之間的相互關係，並分別依各向度建立對應之指標，共計有人口特性驅動力、產業與土地使用驅動力、經濟生活狀態、環境品質狀態與公私部門行動回應等五個向度，17個對應指標項目。模型結果顯示，所建立之模式具有良好的配適度，各個參數之校估亦符合先驗知識之假設。研究結果發現各個向度之前一期的存量皆為影響下一期之首要關鍵因素，且地方永續發展狀態，除受自身存量影響外，皆受回應向度所影響。
本研究之成果不僅展現台灣本島地區307個鄉鎮市之各種地方永續力變化現象，並解析其空間發展模式與聚集類型。另一方面，由地方永續發展機制之探討，亦提供永續發展狀態變化的解釋資訊，可作為擬定區域規劃發展策略之參考基礎。
The main purposes are to study the spatial condition of local sustainable development, the pattern of local sustainability, and temporal-spatial mechanism of local sustainable development. Firstly, in order to provide more complete and detailed information, this paper aims to analyze and classify the characteristics of local sustainability with data retrieved from each neighborhood. The local sustainable indexes system has built with 29 indexes based on 6 dimensions.
Secondly, Multi-variable Analysis has applied to probe changes of local sustainable development. The first step is 11 sustainable factors abbreviated from 29 sustainable indexes with 66.16% of variance explained based on Factor Analysis. Then, apply Two-stages Cluster Analysis to depict the 13 homogenous clusters in the changes of local sustainability on the 307 units. Furthermore, Geographic Information System has applied to display distributions of the 13 homogenous clusters. Meanwhile, Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis, Spatial Autocorrelation Coefficient Correlogram and Local Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis have also adopted to investigate the relationship between the sustainability of each neighborhood and its location. The outcomes show that there are obvious spatial correlation and multicore spatial pattern.
Finally, the model of local sustainable development change D-S-R system has built to diagnose temporal-spatial mechanism of local sustainable development. The fitness and parameters of the model are in good conditions and the results reveal that the key element of temporal-spatial mechanism in local sustainable development is self-stock in each aspects, the responds aspect is the subordinate element.
Based above procedures, all outcomes of this paper, in accordance with local conditions and spatial pattern and the temporal-spatial mechanism of local sustainable development, will be initiated to help planners and environmental managers fulfill the work of monitoring local sustainability as well as a reference for advanced studies.
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