在人口逐漸老化的社會中，老年人的健康狀態很重要。其關乎臺灣未來長期照顧財務政策之負擔。假如壽命延長的同時，慢性病盛行，則需要長照人口數量將增加，勢必影響家戶內工作人口之負擔與勞參行為，進而影響家戶內之資源分配與衝突，因此，瞭解疾病轉型後之長期照顧需求性與疾病別的盛行率有其重要性。本文先簡短討論臺灣地區人口轉型所帶來的人口組成結構老化的趨勢；其次，人口結構老化伴隨著平均壽命的延長之疾病轉型的討論，指出急性病轉型為慢性病為主（飲食與生活條件改善、公共衛生制度改善、科技進步等），使老年人口多半為不健康但需要長期照顧人口之社會常態；第三，討論過去皆認為未來老年人口的失能率變化趨勢為重要的影響關鍵，先前研究經常以固定老年失能者的盛行率、調查資料受限、失能評估指標不一等原因而出現低估現象。因此，本研究檢討相關問題指出，未來需要對於盛行率有更多的模擬、改善調查資料品質、檢討 ADL的指標並討論其意義，除了日常功能的測量之外(ADL)，其他慢性疾病，如中風、髖骨骨折、關節炎、失智症、眼疾等之盛行率，將是未來影響長期照護制度的財務運作主要機制，值得相關決策單位持續追蹤與改善。

In Taiwan, elderly health status is very important, because it related to Taiwan's future financial policy of the burden of long-term care. So, we need to understand the disease after the transformation of the long-term care needs of others with the disease prevalence. In his article, first, I discuss the theory of demographic transition and population aging trend. Second, previous studies shows that most elderly people live longer with chronic diseases and conditions. Third, the review of previous research, I found the following problems, such as underestimate the rate disability, database quality is limited, inconsistent evaluation indicators…etc. Finally, I propose that, in addition to reviewing the future of ADL index significance, but also need to track, such as the prevalence of stroke, fractures, arthritis, dementia, cognitive impairment, Parkinson's disease, eye disease.