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題名:臺灣基層農業金融營運空間模型之研究
書刊名:農業與經濟
作者:李元和許淑華劉育誠
作者(外文):Lee, Yuan-hoHsu, Shu-huaLiu, Yu-chang
出版日期:2011
卷期:47
頁次:頁103-131
主題關鍵詞:農會信用部空間自我相關空間落遲模型空間誤差模型Credit department of farmer's associationSpatial autocorrelationSpatial lag modelSpatial error model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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基層農會信用部的盈餘,地區性差異很大,都會區或鄰近都會區的農會,其盈餘均比遠離都會區或純農業區的農會為高,但過去的研究,並未考慮基層金融之間的鄰近效果,因此,本文將透過空間模型來探討基層農業金融間的空間相關性及其鄰近效果,採用台灣245個鄉(鎮、市)農會信用部為樣本,以存放比率、逾放比率、信用部總收益為自變數,盈餘為依變數。實證結果發現盈餘具有高度的空間相關性,顯示與鄰近鄉鎮地區有相似的屬性,且有聚集的現象;盈餘的空間相關區域指標分佈圖中,農會本身盈餘高,其鄰近農會的盈餘亦高者多集中於北部,農會本身盈餘低,其鄰近農會的盈餘亦低者多集中於中南部。在模型設定方面,加入空間因素後解釋力提高,參數檢定結果,各年度的逾放比率和盈餘均呈現負向的極顯著關係,總收益和盈餘均呈現正向的極顯著關係,此與實務的認知一致。但傳統迴歸模型會高估自變數對依變數的影響,如逾放比率對盈餘的影響,比空間落遲模型高14.86%,比空間誤差模型高5.52%。總收益對盈餘的影響,則比空間落遲模型高9.53%,比空間誤差模型高4.57%。
For the earnings of the credit departments of the basic farmers' association (FA) in Taiwan, it has a great difference between urban areas and rural areas. Earnings of the FA in metropolitan area or adjacent metropolitan area are higher than that of the areas away from the metropolitan or pure agricultural areas. However, for the researches on the past, it did not consider the adjacent effect among the basic financial units. Therefore, this study will examine the spatial correlations and its adjacent effects with the spatial model. With 245 FA as a sample, independent variables are the ratio of deposit to loan, non-performing loan ratio (NPL ratio), and total revenue of the FA. Dependent variable is the earnings. From the results of the empirical study, it finds that earnings with high degree of spatial correlation. It shows that has a similarity among adjacent township areas and with phenomenon of agglomeration. From scatter diagram of the LISA on the earnings, the FA fall on the HH quadrant concentrated in northern area and fall on the LL quadrant concentrated in middle and southern areas. As to the model, after adding spatial factor to the model, it can increase the coefficient of determination. From parameter of test results, it shows that a very significant negative relationship between NPL ratio and earnings, and a highly significant positive relationship between total revenue and earnings. It is consist with the practices. However, for the traditional regression model will overestimate the impact of independent variable on the dependent variable, such as the impact of NPL ratio on the earnings, higher than spatial lag model 14.86%, higher than spatial error model 5.52%. For the impact of total revenue on the earnings, traditional regression model is higher than spatial lag model 9.53%, higher than spatial error model 4.57%.
期刊論文
1.鄒克萬(20000600)。區域人口分布之時空分析。臺灣土地科學學報,1,33-49。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Anselin, L.、Syabri, I.、Kho, Y.(2005)。GeoDa: An Introduction to Spatial Data Analysis。Geographical Analysis,38(1),5-22。  new window
3.Case, Anne C.、Rosen, Harvey S.、Hines, James R.(1993)。Budget Spillovers and Fiscal Policy Interdependence: Evidence from the States。Journal of Public Economy,52(3),285-307。  new window
4.吳明哲(20030600)。臺灣地區農會信用部經營效率之評估。產業金融季刊,119,41-62。  延伸查詢new window
5.張靜貞、賴怡君(1999)。農會信用部的效率評估與風險管制。農業金融論叢,42,33-58。  延伸查詢new window
6.Martin, Ron、Sunley, Peter(1998)。Slow convergence? The new endogenous growth theory and regional development。Economic Geography,74(3),201-227。  new window
7.謝純瑩、周國屏(20021200)。應用空間自相關分析於人口老化時空變遷之研究。人口學刊,25,91-119。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Getis, A.、Ord, J. K.(1992)。The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics。Geographical Analysis,24(3),189-206。  new window
9.Anselin, Luc(1995)。Local Indicators of Spatial Association: LISA。Geographical Analysis,27(2),93-115。  new window
10.劉祥熹、陳永琦(20000400)。經營策略、外部環境、組織結構與經營績效之關連性--臺灣地區農漁會信用部之實證研究。企業管理學報,46,77-113。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.Case, A.(1992)。Neighborhood Influence and Technological Change。Regional Science and Urban Economics,22,491-508。  new window
12.Anselin, L.(1990)。Spatial Dependence and Spatial Structural Instability in Applied Regression Analysis。Journal of Regional Science,30,185-207。  new window
13.Freund, C. L.、Weinhold, D.(2004)。The Effect of the Internet on International Trade。Journal of International Economics,62,171-189。  new window
14.Sokal, R. R.、Oden, N. L.、Thomson, B. A.(1998)。Local Spatial Autocorrelation in a Biological Model。Geographical Analysis,30(4),331-354。  new window
15.Whittle, R(1954)。On Stationary Processes in the Plane。Biometrika,41,434- 449。  new window
16.Goodchild, M. F.(1992)。Geographic Data Modeling。Computers and Geosciences,18,401-408。  new window
17.King, M.(1981)。A Small Sample Property of the Cliff-Ord Test for Spatial Correlation。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B,43,263-264。  new window
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會議論文
1.黃偉明(2007)。中國大陸區域所得變動之空間分析(1995-2005)。台北。  延伸查詢new window
2.余清祥、許添榮(2004)。台灣地區鄕鎭市區生育率的空間與群集硏究。台北。  延伸查詢new window
3.曾昭玲、朱真慧(2004)。影響台灣證券商家數地理因素之探討。2004 財務理論與實務硏討會。台北:真理大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.黃璀娟、郭迺鋒、黃聖峰(2004)。台灣鄕鎭工資的收斂性-空間計量之應用。台北。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.Arbia, G.、Piras, G.(2005)。Convergence in Per-Capita GDP Across EU- NUTS2 Regions Using Panel Data Models Extended to Spatial Autocorrelation Effects。  new window
2.Ramirez, M. T.、Loboguerrero, A. M.(2002)。Spatial Dependence and Economic Groth: Evidence from A Panel of Countries。  new window
3.Rey, Sergio J.(2001)。Spatial Analysis of Regional Income Inequality。  new window
學位論文
1.陳慈仁(2001)。台北市資訊軟體業與網際網路服務業區位分佈之研究(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.謝銘智(2000)。公共設施計畫空間公平性之研究(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.黃紹東(2004)。台南市東區住宅價格之空間自我迴歸分析(碩士論文)。國立成功大學,台南。  延伸查詢new window
4.朱健銘(2000)。土地利用空間型態之研究(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.洪于婷(1999)。都市發展永續性結構之研究(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.王佳美(2006)。所得收斂假說之跨國檢定-空間計量模型。世新大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.紀玉臨(2008)。區域經濟收斂、人力資本與空閭外溢效應,台灣,1991-2001。  延伸查詢new window
8.許禎育(2009)。臺灣農業所得之空間分析。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
9.盧清城(2009)。台灣醫療保健支出之空間模型硏究。佛光大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Anselin, Luc(1988)。Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models。Kluwer Academic Publishers。  new window
2.Cliff, Andrew D.、Ord, John K.(1981)。Spatial Processes: Models and Applications。Pion。  new window
3.台灣省農會(2005)。台灣區各級農會年報。台中。  延伸查詢new window
4.Lioyd, C. D.(2010)。Spatial Data Analysis, an Introduction for GIS Users。Oxford, UK。  new window
5.Woolridge, J. M.(2002)。Econometric Analysis of Cross-Section and Panal Data。Cambridge, Massachusetts。  new window
6.Anselin, L.、Bera, A.(1998)。Spatial Dependence in Linear Regression Modelswith an Introduction to Spatial Econometrics。Hand book of Applied Economin Statistic。New York。  new window
 
 
 
 
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