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題名:地盤劃分與選舉競爭:對應分析法在多席次選舉研究上之應用
書刊名:選舉研究
作者:林繼文 引用關係
作者(外文):Lin, Jih-wen
出版日期:1998
卷期:5:2
頁次:頁103-128
主題關鍵詞:單記非讓渡投票制臺灣選舉對應分析法選票區隔地方派系Single nontransferable votingSNTVElection in TaiwanCorrespondence analysisVote divisionLocal factions
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(13) 博士論文(3) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:13
  • 共同引用共同引用:20
  • 點閱點閱:41
我國民意代表選舉所採取的「多席次選區單記非讓渡投票制」,使黨派屬性相近的候選人往往成為彼此主要的競爭對手。候選人間的選票區隔因此成為研究台灣選舉的主要課題之一。然而,這類研究往往需要分析候選人選票在不同地域單位間的分布。由於人與地皆屬類別性變數,且多席次選舉的資料矩陣必然龐大,常用的統計方法大多難以處理這樣的資料。本文主張,「對應分析法」(correspondence Analysis ) 是解決這個問題的妥當工具。此法將任一n×m矩陣視為n個m維向量,並找出一k維次空間以極大化各行矩陣在此k維空間上的投射 ( 以卡方距離計之 ) 的變異量。由於候選人及地域皆可標示為此空間中之向量,我們可以描述候選人間的卡方距離,及候選人與地域的卡方距離。本文運用對應分析法來描述台灣立委選舉中候選人與各地域的卡方距離,並判斷每一候選人之主要地盤。我們並以對應分析空間之慣量 ( inertia ) 及維度 ( dimension ) 來解釋政黨的選舉表現。結果發現,在得票率和維度不變的情況下,執政黨每超額提名一個候選人就可能喪失11.7%的席次。
It is well recognized that intra-party competition marks a major consequence of the single nontransferable vote under multi-member district system(SNTV-MMD), currently used in Taiwan's legislature elections. A key issue in Taiwan's electoral study is thus how candi-dates, especially those from the same party, divide their votes a-mong various categories that differentiate the voters. Since the data set revealing this information is usually a large matrix of categorical variables, existing multivariate statistical methods are either inap-plicable or inadequate. This paper demonstrates that correspond-dence analysis is an appropriate statistical tool to solve this prob-lem. This method treats an n × m matrix as n vectors in an m-di-mensional space, and finds a k-dimensional subspace that maxi-mizes the variance of the projections of the n vectors. Utilizing this method, this paper first illustrates the Chi-square distance between candidates and the sub-district regions. It then designs indexes to describe the degree of vote concentration for each candidate, fac-tion, and party, and correlate it with the electoral performances of these actors. Statistical analysis indicates that, given the same vote share, inertia, and dimensionality, overnominating one candidate decreases the seat share of the KMT by 11.73%.
期刊論文
1.Lin, Tse-min、Chu, Yun-han、Hinich, Melvin J.(1996)。Conflict Displacement and Regime Transition in Taiwan: A Spatial Analysis。World Politics,48(4),453-481。  new window
2.Cox, Gary W.、Niou, Emerson M. S.(1994)。Seat Bonuses under the Single Nontransferable Vote System: Evidence from Japan and Taiwan。Comparative Politics,26(2),221-236。  new window
3.Chu, Yun-han(19940600)。SNTV and the Evolving Party System in Taiwan。政治學報,22,33-51。  new window
4.Bosco, Joseph(1994)。Factions versus Ideology: Mobolization Strategy in Taiwan's Elections。The China Quarterly,137,29-62。  new window
5.Fisher, R. A.(1940)。The Precision of Discriminant Functions。Annals of Eugenics,10,422-429。  new window
6.Huang, Teh-fu(1995)。Electoral Competition and the Evolution of the Kuomingtang。Issues and Studies,31(5),91-120。  new window
7.Hsieh, John Fuh-sheng、Niou, Emerson M. S.(1996)。Issue Voting in the Republic of China on Taiwan's 1992 Legislative Yuan Election。International Political Science Review,17(1),13-27。  new window
8.Hirshfeld, H. O.(1935)。A Connection between Correlation and Contingency。Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophy Society,32,520-524。  new window
9.劉義周(19920300)。國民黨責任區輔選活動之參與觀察研究。國立政治大學學報,64,209-233。  延伸查詢new window
10.吳乃德(19950400)。社會分歧和政黨競爭--解釋國民黨為何繼續執政。中央研究院民族學研究所集刊,78,101-130。  延伸查詢new window
11.陳明通、朱雲漢(19920100)。區域性聯合獨占經濟、地方派系與省議員選舉: 一項省議員候選人背景資料的分析。Proceedings of the National Science Council. Part C, Humanities and Social Sciences,2(1),77-97。  延伸查詢new window
12.王金壽(19971200)。國民黨候選人買票機器的建立與運作:一九九三年風芒縣長選舉的個案研究。臺灣政治學刊,2,3-62。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.陳明通(1994)。尋找派系選民。<<民主化、政黨政治與選舉>>學術研討會,台灣大學政治學系選舉行為研究計劃小組、台大政研所政治體系與變遷研究工作室主辦 (會議日期: 1994.07.08)。台北:台灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.吳乃德(1987)。The Politics of a Regime Patronage System: Mobilization and Control Within an Authoritarian Regime(博士論文)。University of Chicago。  new window
圖書
1.張昆山、黃政雄(1996)。地方派系與台灣政治。台北:聯經出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.Greenacre, Michael J.(1993)。Correspondence Analysis in Practice。London:Academic Press。  new window
3.Greenacre, Michael J.(1984)。Theory and Applications of Correspondence Analysis。Academic Press。  new window
4.Greenacre, Michael J.、Blasius, Jorg(1994)。Correspondence Analysis in the Social Sciences: Recent Development and Applications。London:Academic Press。  new window
5.Levart, Ludovic、Morineau, Alain、Warwick, Kenneth M.(1984)。Multivariate Descriptive Statistical Analysis: Correspondence Analysis and Related Techniques for Large Matrices。New York:Wiley。  new window
6.Jacobs, Bruce J.(1980)。Local Politics in a Rural Chinese Setting: A Field Study of Mazu Township。Canberra:Contemporary China Center, Austria National University。  new window
7.Mark, Ramseyer J.、Rosenbluth, Frances M.(1993)。Japan's Political Marketplace。Cambridge:Harvard University Press。  new window
8.Manly, Bryan F. J.(1995)。Multivariate Statistical Methods。London:Chapman & Hall。  new window
9.陳明通(1995)。派系政治與臺灣政治變遷。月旦出版社股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.陳明通、林繼文(1998)。台灣地方選舉之起源與國家社會關係之轉變。兩岸基層選舉與政治社會變遷:哈佛大學東西方學者的對話。台北:月旦出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.McCubbins, Mathew D.、Rosenbluth, Frances M.(1995)。Party Provision for Personal Politics: Dividing the Vote in Japan。Structure and Policy in Japan and the United States。Cambridge:Cambridge University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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