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題名：A Simple Model for Predicting the Outcome of the 2008 Legislative Yuan Elections in Taiwan
書刊名：Issues & Studies
作者：吳重禮 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wu, Chung-li
出版日期：2008
卷期：44:4
頁次：頁1-28
主題關鍵詞：Election forecast；Party voting；Voter choice；Electoral system；Prediction accuracy
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(8) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:8
  • 共同引用共同引用:242
  • 點閱點閱:33
The 2008 Legislative Yuan elections in Taiwan were held under a new electoral system, a combination of single-member districts with a plurality system, the national nonpreferential list proportional representation system, and the single nontransferable vote system for the aboriginal districts. This work develops a forecasting model and hypothesizes that the partisan voting behavior of Taiwan's citizens largely remains identifiable and durable. There are two methodologies used in this study. The first is the use of three-wave aggregate-level electoral data to estimate the outcomes of the 2008 legislative elections. The second employs ordinary least squares (OLS) estimations to evaluate the effects of previous three-wave electoral results on the 2008 elections. Using the first method, the forecast success rate is more than 80 percent. The findings also reveal that the OLS model performs satisfactorily because two of the three coefficients reach statistical significance. This study concludes by listing three implications of the election: that it was a critical watershed in Taiwan's politics, that there is a geopolitical gap between the north and south, and that minor political parties were eliminated from Taiwan politics.
期刊論文
1.Key, Valdimer Orlando Jr.(1959)。Secular Realignment and the Party System。The Journal of Politics，21(2)，198-210。  new window
2.Lin, Jih-wen(2006)。The Politics of Reform in Japan and Taiwan。Journal of Democracy，17(2)，118-131。  new window
3.Reed, Steven R.(199512)。The Nomination Process for Japan's Next General Election。Asian Survey，35(12)，1075-1086。  new window
4.Wolfe, Eugene L.(199512)。Japanese Electoral and Political Reform: Role of the Young Turks。Asian Survey，35(12)，1059-1074。  new window
5.Cox, Gary W.(199608)。Is the Single Nontransferable Vote Super proportional? Evidence from Japan and Taiwan。American Journal of Political Science，40(3)，740-755。  new window
6.Cox, Gary W.(1994)。Strategic Voting Equilibria under the Single Nontransferable Vote。American Political Science Review，88(3)，608-621。  new window
7.Nardulli, Peter F.(199503)。The Concept of a Critical Realignment, Electoral Behavior, and Political Change。American Political Science Review，89(1)，10-22。  new window
8.Pomper, Gerald M.(196708)。Classification of Presidential Elections。Journal of Politics，29(3)，535-566。  new window
9.Cox, Gary W.、Niou, Emerson M. S.(1994)。Seat Bonuses Under the Single Nontransferable Vote System: Evidence From Japan and Taiwan。Comparative Politics，26(2)，221-236。  new window
10.Riker, William H.(19821200)。The Two-Party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science。American Political Science Review，76(4)，753-766。  new window
11.Cox, Gary W.(1991)。SNTV and d'Hondt are 'Equivalent'。Electoral Studies，10(2)，348-352。  new window
12.盛治仁(20060600)。單一選區兩票制對未來臺灣政黨政治發展之可能影響探討。臺灣民主季刊，3(2)，63-85。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.盛杏湲(19981100)。政黨配票與侯選人票源的集散度：一九八三年至一九九五年臺灣地區立法委員選舉的分析。選舉研究，5(2)，73-102。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.洪永泰(19940500)。選舉預測：一個以整體資料為輔助工具的模型。選舉研究，1(1)，93-110。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Wang,Yeh-lih(19960800)。The Political Consequences of the Electoral System: Single Nontransferable Voting in Taiwan。Issues & Studies，32(8)，85-104。new window  new window
16.Batto, Nathan(20010500)。Geographical Voting Bases and the Stability of Candidates' Voter Coalitions (1989-1998)。選舉研究，8(1)，211-251。new window  new window
17.陳陸輝(19941100)。中國國民黨「黃復興黨部」的輔選效果分析。選舉研究，1(2)，53-96。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.林繼文(19981100)。地盤劃分與選舉競爭：對應分析法在多席次選舉研究上之應用。選舉研究，5(2)，103-128。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.王業立(19950500)。單記非讓渡投票制的政治影響：我國民意代表選舉制度的探討。選舉研究，2(1)，147-167。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Miller, Warren E.、Shanks, J. Merrill(1996)。The New American Voters。Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press。  new window
2.Conway, M. Margaret(1984)。Political Participation in the United States。Washington, D. C：Congressional Quarterly Press。  new window
3.Duverger, Maurice(1962)。Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State。London：Methuen。  new window
4.Cox, Gary W.(1997)。Making Votes Count。Cambridge。  new window
5.Farrell, David M.(2001)。Electoral Systems: A Comparative Introduction。New York：Palgrave。  new window
6.Grofman, Bernard、Lijphart, Arend(1986)。Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences。New York：Agathon Press, Inc.。  new window
7.Norris, Pippa(2004)。Electoral Engineering: Voting Rules and Political Behavior。New York, NY。  new window
8.Rae, Douglas W.(1971)。The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws。New Haven, Conn.：Yale University Press。  new window
9.Lijphart, Arend(1999)。Patterns of democracy: government forms and performance in thirty-six countries。Yale University Press。  new window
10.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
圖書論文
1.謝復生(1996)。The SNTV System and Its Political Implications。Taiwan's Electoral Politics and Democratic Transition: Riding the Third Wave。Armonk, NY：M. E. Sharpe。  new window
2.Hsieh, John Fuh-sheng(1999)。Manipulating the Electoral System under the SNTV: The Case of the Republic of China on Taiwan。Elections in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan under the Single Non-Transferable Vote: The Comparative Study of an Embedded Institution。Ann Arbor, Michigan：University of Michigan Press。  new window
3.Shugart, Matthew Soberg、Wattenberg, Martin P.(2001)。Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: A Definition and Typology。Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?。Oxford University Press。  new window
4.Riker, William H.(1986)。Duverger's Law Revisited。Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences。New York：Agathon Press, Inc.。  new window
5.Lijphart, Arend、Pintor, Rafael Lopez、Sone, Yasunori(1986)。The Limited Vote and the Single Nontransferable Vote: Lessons from the Japanese and Spanish Examples。Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences。New York：Agathon Press, Inc.。  new window
6.劉一周(1999)。Campaigning in an SNTV System: The Case of Kuomington in Taiwan。Elections in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan under the Single-nontransferable Vote: The Comparative Study of an Embedded Institution。Ann Arbor, MI：The University of Michigan Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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