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題名:投票行為之空間觀點與空間分析--以臺灣2004年總統選舉為例
書刊名:選舉研究
作者:賴進貴 引用關係葉高華 引用關係張智昌
作者(外文):Lay, Jinn-gueyYap, Ko-huaChang, Chy-chang
出版日期:2007
卷期:14:1
頁次:頁33-60
主題關鍵詞:投票行為空間自相關空間相依性空間迴歸模式空間異質性Spatial autocorrelationSpatial dependenceSpatial heterogeneitySpatial regression modelVoting behavior
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(27) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(2)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:27
  • 共同引用共同引用:671
  • 點閱點閱:106
過去對於臺灣選舉的投票行為研究,較少由空間觀點切入。然而投票行為的地域差異,早已被人注意,且勢將支配單一選區制度下的選區劃分與選舉結果。本文的目的,在於發掘並揭示選舉研究中的空間問題。首先,本文將空間效應界定為空間異質性與空間相依性,並論述其影響投票行為的過程。其次,本文介紹空間自相關與空間迴歸模式的分析方法,用以探索與檢驗空間效應。本文的後半部分,藉由臺灣2004年總統選舉的實證研究成果,支持三個假設:1. 投票行為具有空間聚集的現象,亦即在距離愈近的村里中,投票行為愈為相似;2. 傳統迴歸模式的誤差具有地域差異,顯現空間異質性的存在;3. 控制了性別、年齡、教育、就業、族群等社會因素後,鄰近的選民仍會互相影響,證明空間相依性的支配力。本文的結論是:投票者在哪裡,是個必須被考慮的問題。
Spatial perspectives were seldom applied on the study of voting behavior in Taiwan in the past. However, the regional differentiation of voting behavior had been generally attended. Moreover, it would certainly dominate the division of Single-Member Districts and the eventual outcome. The authors attempt to explore spatial issues in electoral studies in this article. First, by defining spatial effects as spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependency, it could be then revealed how it influenced voting behavior. Secondly, indicators of spatial autocorrelation and the spatial regression model are introduced to explore and examine spatial effects. In the later half of the article, the 2004 Taiwan presidential election is taken as an empirical example to support three hypotheses: 1) similar voting are spatially clustered, in other words, voting are similar among neighboring communities; 2) residuals in the classical regression model exhibited regional differentiation that reveals spatial heterogeneity; 3) contiguous voters can still be affected even the social factors such as gender, age, education, employment and ethnicity have been controlled (a revelation of the dominance of spatial dependence). The authors thus conclude that it shall always be taken into consideration regarding where the voters live.
期刊論文
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6.陳義彥(20030500)。臺灣選舉行為調查研究的回顧與展望--「TEDS2001」學術研討會圓桌論壇講詞。選舉研究,10(1),1-6。new window  延伸查詢new window
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14.吳乃德(19990700)。家庭社會化和意識型態:臺灣選民政黨認同的世代差異。臺灣社會學研究,3,53-85。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.王甫昌(20021200)。族群接觸機會?還是族群競爭?:本省閩南人族群意識內涵與地區差異模式之解釋。臺灣社會學,4,11-74。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.施添福(19900300)。地理學中的空間觀點。國立臺灣師範大學地理研究報告,16,115-137。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.林繼文(19981100)。地盤劃分與選舉競爭:對應分析法在多席次選舉研究上之應用。選舉研究,5(2),103-128。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.盛杏湲、陳義彥(20030500)。政治分歧與政黨競爭:二○○一年立法委員選舉的分析。選舉研究,10(1),7-40。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.王甫昌(19980700)。族群意識、民族主義與政黨支持:一九九○年代臺灣的族群政治。臺灣社會學研究,2,1-45。new window  延伸查詢new window
20.吳乃德(20021200)。認同衝突和政治信任:現階段臺灣族群政治的核心難題。臺灣社會學,4,75-118。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.Sack, Robert D.(1972)。Geography, Geometry and Explanation。Annals of the Association of American Geographers,62,61-78。  new window
22.Cho, Wendy K. Tam(1998)。If the Assumption Fits...: A Comment on the King Ecological Inference Solution。Political Analysis,7,143-163。  new window
23.Gimpel, James G.、Schuknecht, J. E.(2003)。Political Participation and the Accessibility of the Ballot Box。Political Geography,22,471-488。  new window
24.Anselin, Luc、Cho, Wendy K. Tam(2002)。Spatial Effects and Ecological Inference。Political Analysis,10,276-297。  new window
25.O'Loughlin, John、Flint, Colin、Anselin, Luc(1994)。The Geography of the Nazi Vote: Context, Confession, and Class in the Reichstag Election of 1930。Annals of the Association of American Geographers,84(3),351-380。  new window
研究報告
1.黃紀(2004)。選舉穩定與變遷:臺灣選舉地緣資料庫之建罝與應用,行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫期中報告 (計畫編號:NSC92-2414-H-194-007)。嘉義:國立中正大學政治學系。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Sack, Robert David(1980)。Conceptions of Space in Social Thought: A Geographic Perspective。London:Macmillan。  new window
2.Haggett, P.、Cliff, A.、Frey, A.(1977)。Locational Method。New York:John Wiley and Son。  new window
3.Tingsten, Herbert(1937)。Political Behavior: Studies in Election Statistics。London:P.S. King and Son。  new window
4.Valen, Henry、Katz, Daniel(1964)。Political Parties in Norway: A Community Study。Oslo:Universitetsforlaget。  new window
5.King, Gary(1997)。A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data。Princeton, New Jersey:Princeton University Press。  new window
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7.章英華(1993)。臺灣都市的內部結構:社會生態的與歷史的探討。臺北:巨流圖書公司。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.段義孚(1977)。Space and Place: The Perspectives of Experience。Minneapolis, MN:University of Minnesota Press。  new window
9.廖忠俊(1997)。臺灣地方派系的形成發展與質變。臺北:允晨文化。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Inglehart, Ronald(1990)。Culture Shift in Advanced industrial Society。Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press。  new window
11.陳明通(1995)。派系政治與臺灣政治變遷。月旦出版社股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
12.Anselin, Luc(1988)。Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models。Kluwer Academic Publishers。  new window
13.廖忠俊(20000000)。臺灣地方派系及其主要領導人物。臺北:允晨文化。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Cliff, Andrew D.、Ord, John K.(1973)。Spatial Autocorrelation。Pion。  new window
15.Cliff, Andrew D.、Ord, John K.(1981)。Spatial Processes: Models and Applications。Pion。  new window
16.施添福(1987)。清代在臺漢人的祖籍分布和原鄉生活方式。臺灣師範大學地理學系:台灣省文獻會。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.Taylor, P. J.、Johnston, R. J.(1979)。Geography of Elections。London:Penguin。  new window
18.Eagles, Munroe(1995)。Spatial and Contextual Models in Political Research。London:Taylor & Francis。  new window
圖書論文
1.Stegner, Wallace E.(1992)。The Sense of Place。Where the Bluebird Sings to the Lemonade Springs。New York, NY:Random House。  new window
2.Cox, K. R.(1969)。The Voting Decision in a Spatial Context。Progress in Geography: International Reviews of Current Research。London:Edward Arnold。  new window
3.Anselin, Luc(1996)。The Moran Scatter Plot as an ESDA Tool to Assess Local Instability in Spatial Association。Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS。London:Taylor & Francis。  new window
4.林忠正、林鶴玲(1993)。臺灣地區各族群的經濟差異。族群關係與國家認同。台北:業強出版社。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Lipset, Seymour Martin、Rokkan, Stein(1967)。Party System and Voter Alignments。Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-national Perspectives。New York, NY:The Free Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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