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題名：政黨標籤的規模效應--以2014年村里長選舉為例
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：王宏恩
作者(外文)：Wang, Austin Horng-en
出版日期：2015
卷期：22:1
頁次：頁109-141
主題關鍵詞：村里長選舉；杜佛傑法則；政黨標籤；選民數；規模效應；Village and li election；Duverger's law；Party label；Number of electorate；Scale effect
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:123
  • 點閱點閱:148
為什麼我國單一選區的村里長選舉，並未如杜佛傑法則所預測地出現全面性兩大黨競爭，而是大量的無黨籍當選者？政黨標籤對村里長選舉是否毫無幫助？本文認為其關鍵在於選區內選民數多寡，選民少時候選人可靠己身社會網絡及資源交換掌握足夠票數、選民多時則需透過政黨標籤來爭取無法親自接觸的選民並降低資訊成本。換言之，選擇披黨籍參選與否是候選人追求勝選的策略選擇，而選區選民數越多時政黨標籤對勝選幫助越大，本文稱之為政黨標籤的規模效應。由於歷史沿革及後續發展，我國各村里的選民數從數十到上萬，差異極大，故可在控制政府層級的情況下，驗證選民人數與政黨標籤交互作用下對候選人競選策略及得票的影響。作為第一篇全國性的村里長選舉量化分析研究， 2014年村里長選舉結果顯示，選區選民數少時較容易出現無黨籍、同額競選、與現任者連任。相較之下，選民數較多的選區，有較多代表兩大黨參選的候選人、且更容易變成兩大黨對決。然而，迴歸模型僅發現民進黨籍在選民數越多時吸引越多票，同樣的狀況卻未出現在國民黨籍候選人上，這可能來自兩大黨招牌背後代表的動員模式造成標籤規模效應的不同。此外，統計結果中亦發現村里長選舉裡中年、男性、現任者之得票優勢。
Contrary to Duverger’s Law, most winners in Taiwan’s village and li Single-Member-District elections are independent. Why? Is partisanship not effective on attracting ballot in this election? This article emphasizes the amount of electorates in districts as the key moderating variable. When personal resource is not enough in exchange of winning because of the large number of electorates, party brand can be a cost-saving heuristic cue on attracting partisan voters; party brand has “scale effect” in district with more electorates. Due to the special colonial background followed by economic development, the size of village and li in Taiwan varies tremendously – some are small enough that every electorate knows each other, the others are so large that it is impossible for candidates to meet everyone. This special setting enables researchers to test the interaction between partisanship and number of electorates on voteshare, controlling for the level of government and electoral system. Being the first quantitative paper on Taiwan’s village and li elections, this article uses 2014 election results to reveal that (1) number of electorates negatively correlates to single-candidate district and independent incumbent reelection. (2) Number of electorate positively correlates to larger proportion of candidates from two major parties. (3) DPP candidates received more votes when the number of electorates in district is larger, which is consistent with the scale effect assumption. However, the same effect does not appear on KMT candidates, which implies the meanings of the two major party brands are different. Empirical results suggest that vote-seeking candidates choose campaign strategy conditioning on the number of electorates in district. Regression result also suggests that candidates benefit from middle age, male, and incumbency.
期刊論文
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3.張佑宗、盧信宏(20140900)。總統選舉、國家認同與侍從主義的消失？--2000年後雲林縣的個案研究。政治科學論叢，61，1-40。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.范惟翔、蔡明純、羅聖宗(20070600)。候選人條件、競選策略與關心公共事務對選民投票行為之影響--以2006年村里長選舉為例。嶺東學報，21，157-182。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.鍾道明、黃東益(20061200)。國民黨苗栗縣基層專職黨工關係網絡之研究。逢甲人文社會學報，13，267-310。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.嚴祥鸞(2011)。性別主流化：女性在地方的政治參與。政治與政策，1(2)，47-64。  延伸查詢new window
7.Ames, Barry(1994)。The Reverse Coattail Effect: Local Party Organization in the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election。The American Political Science Review，88(1)，95-111。  new window
8.Atkinson, Matthew D.、Enos, Ryan D.、Hill, Seth J.(2009)。Candidate Faces and Election Outcomes: Is the Face-Vote Correlation Caused by Candidate Selection?。Quarterly Journal of Political Science，4，229-249。  new window
9.Cassino, Dan、Taber, Charles S.、Lodge, Milton(2007)。Information Processing and Public Opinion。Politische Vierteljahresschrift，48(2)，205-220。  new window
10.Citrin, Jack、Schickler, Eric、Sides, John(2003)。What If Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased Turnout in Senate Elections。American Journal of Political Science，47(1)，75-90。  new window
11.Claggett, William、Flanigan, William、Zingale, Nancy(1984)。Nationalization of the American Electorate。The American Political Science Review，78(1)，77-91。  new window
12.Hicken, Allen(2011)。Clientelism。Annual Review of Political Science，14(1)，289-310。  new window
13.Kitschelt, Herbert(2000)。Linkages between Citizens and Politicians in Democratic Politics。Comparative Political Studies，33(6/7)，845-879。  new window
14.Mattlin, Mikael(2006)。Party Opportunism among Local Politicians after Taiwan's Power Transition。East Asia，23(1)，63-85。  new window
15.Morgenstern, Scott、Swindle, Stephen M.、Castagnola, Andrea(2009)。Party Nationalization and Institutions。The Journal of Politics，71(4)，1322-1341。  new window
16.Railings, Colin、Thrasher, Michael、Borisyuk, Galina、Shears, Mary(2010)。Parties, Recruitment and Modernisation: Evidence from Local Election Candidates。Local Government Studies，36(3)，361-379。  new window
17.Coppedge, Michael(1993)。Parties and Society in Mexico and Venezuela: Why Competition Matters。Comparative Politics，25(3)，253-274。  new window
18.王金壽(20040600)。瓦解中的地方派系：以屏東為例。臺灣社會學，7，177-207。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.Riker, William H.(19821200)。The Two-Party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science。American Political Science Review，76(4)，753-766。  new window
20.蔡育軒、陳怡君、王業立(20071200)。社區發展協會、選舉動員與地方政治。東吳政治學報，25(4)，93-135。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.姚人多(20080600)。政權轉移之治理性：戰後國民黨政權對日治時代保甲制度的承襲與轉化。臺灣社會學，15，47-106。new window  延伸查詢new window
22.王金壽(19971200)。國民黨候選人買票機器的建立與運作：一九九三年風芒縣長選舉的個案研究。臺灣政治學刊，2，3-62。new window  延伸查詢new window
23.蔡佳泓、王金壽、王鼎銘(20071200)。以濁水縣為例解析臺灣2005年三合一選舉的聯合動員效應。臺灣政治學刊，11(2)，173-225。new window  延伸查詢new window
24.王金壽(20040600)。重返風芒縣：國民黨選舉機器的成功與失敗。臺灣政治學刊，8(1)，99-146。new window  延伸查詢new window
25.黃紀、林長志、王宏忠(20130500)。三合一選舉中之一致與分裂投票：以2010年高雄市選舉為例。選舉研究，20(1)，1-45。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.凃孟妤(2012)。她們為什麼不參政？臺北市女性社區領導者對參選里長的認知與經驗探討。世新大學管理學院行政管理學系學生學術研討會，(會議日期: 2012/06/05)。臺北：世新大學。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.李阿興(2007)。村里長定位之研究--以臺北縣五股鄉為例(碩士論文)。國立臺灣師範大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.李海鈺(2004)。里長官派可行性之研究--以高雄市為個案分析(碩士論文)。國立中山大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.林鈺珊(2013)。里長的跨領域研究(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.簡君坪(2009)。行政監督失靈下的分配政治--村里基層工作經費之研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.何燕萍(1987)。臺灣省村里組織與功能之研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.陳華昇(1993)。威權轉型期地方派系與選舉之關係：臺中縣地方派系之分析(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Caramani, Daniele(2004)。The Nationalization of Politics: The Formation of National Electorates and Party Systems in Western Europe。New York：Cambridge University Press。  new window
2.Szwarcberg, Mariela L.(2009)。Making Local Democracy: Political Machines, Clientelism, and Social Networks in Argentina。Ann Arbor, MI：ProQuest。  new window
3.陳延輝(2005)。臺南縣派系興起與政黨政治的確立。臺北：秀威資訊。  延伸查詢new window
4.Aldrich, John H.(2011)。Why Parties? A Second Look。Chicago：The University of Chicago Press。  new window
5.Ferreira, Fernando、Gyourko, Joseph(2007)。Do Political Parties Matter? Evidence from US Cities。National Bureau of Economic Research。  new window
6.Key, V. O. Jr.(1949)。Southern Politics。New York：Alfred A. Knopf。  new window
7.Rokkan, Stein(1970)。Citizens, Elections, Parties: Approaches to the Comparative Study of the Processes of Development。New York：David McKay。  new window
8.Stokes, Susan C.、Dunning, Thad、Nazareno, Marcelo、Brusco, Valeria(2013)。Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
9.Schattschneider, Elmer E.(1960)。The Semisovereign People。New York：Holt, Rinehart and Winston。  new window
10.Olson, Mancur(1965)。The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups。New York：Mcgraw-Hill College。  new window
11.Key, Valdimer Orlando Jr.(1966)。The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936-1960。Cambridge, MA：The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press。  new window
12.Duverger, Maurice(1963)。Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State。New York：Wiley, Science Ed。  new window
圖書論文
1.趙永茂(2005)。里的定位以及與區、社區發展協會的關係。地方民主與治理--陳陽德教授榮退紀念論文集。臺北：時英出版社。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Aldrich, John H.、Griffin, John D.(2010)。Parties, Elections, and Democratic Politics。The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior。Oxford：Oxford University Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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