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題名:唯行動或唯固網相對於全業務電信經營效率的研究 (2000-2004年)
作者:陳春美
作者(外文):Chun-Mei Chen
校院名稱:國立交通大學
系所名稱:管理科學系所
指導教授:毛治國
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2006
主題關鍵詞:效率競爭力行動對固網的替代 (FMS)資料包絡分析法 (DEA)唯固網唯行動全業務寬頻網際網路解構EfficiencyCompetitivenessFMSDEA (Data Envelopment Analysis)Fixed-onlyMobile-onlyFull-serviceInternet BroadbandDe-merged
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通信科技的不斷進步,人類的「溝通」變得更自然與更多元,衝擊著電信產業亦不斷的演化。1990s年代隨著行動通信進入市場,部份電信管制機關為促進市場公平競爭,避免業者獨大壟斷市場,如日本和中國作成固網和行動分離經營的管制政策。另一方面,受FMS (fixed to mobile substitution)影響,全球行動業者被視為成長股,在資本市場一枝獨秀,華爾街承銷商(underwriters) 鼓吹行動部門自固網的經營解構,在民營化歷程中首次公開發行 (IPO) 享有較高的獲利,例如英國BT、法國FT、瑞士Swisscom、愛爾蘭Eircom及香港PCCW等,其行動部門2001年皆自原全業務的經營解構出去。然而如新加坡SingTel、德國DT、澳洲Telstra及台灣中華電信等,在首次公開發行 (IPO) 中仍保有固網和行動的全業務經營模式。因此,全球電信經營型態可區分為唯行動 (mobile-only)、唯固網 (fixed-only) 及全業務 (full-service),本研究主題即在探討此三種業者經營效率的比較。
資料包絡分析法 (DEA) 的優點係結合投入和產生變數的分析。本文觀察對象大多為Forbes 2000全球排名前兩千大的電信業者,以設備為基礎的三種經營型態,每種各取9家業者總共27家,透過為期5年 (2000-2004年) 的觀察,衡量三種經營形態相對效率的比較研究。投入 (input) 變數包括總資產 (total assets) 、資本支出 (CAPEX) 和員工數 (employees) 三種,產出 (output) 變數包括營收(revenue)、息前稅前折舊攤銷前盈餘 (EBITDA)、息前稅前盈餘 (EBIT) 及淨利 (net income) 四種。
本研究證明全業務業者在2002-2004年間呈現反轉最佳的效率。唯固網業者雖面臨語音營收的衰退,由於xDSL出現帶來寬頻網路和資料新的營收來源,2001年起顯現相對次佳的效率。而唯行動業者在已開發國家因行動市場日趨飽和,又無固網寬頻以挹注新營收來源,於2000年達到高峰後,次年起逐漸顯現相對較低的效率。面對未來IP匯流趨勢,不僅固網和行動平台日趨整合,全業務業者可延展通路、人力、內容加值等各種資源,捆綁產品尋找吸引子連結至用戶端,則未來經營前景可期。本文提供通信傳播匯流下政府管制政策,及以產業分析為基礎的投資併購和策略規劃之參考。
This paper compares the efficiency of full-service telcos which offer both fixed-line and mobile services with fixed-only and mobile-only carriers during the 2000-2004 period. The DEA (data envelopment analysis) method is employed to measure the relative efficiency of the three groups of carriers. The data for DEA are retrieved from UBS Investment Bank and Annual Reports as disclosed on the carriers’ websites. The objects operators are leading companies in the telecom industry based upon their rankings in Forbes 2000 and are divided into the three operating models of mobile-only, fixed-only, and full-service. The empirical results show that full-service carriers exhibited a relatively higher overall technical efficiency from the year 2002 to 2004. As a result of growing Internet and broadband data services, both full-service and fixed-only carriers had an upward trend in the market. On the other hand, mobile-only carriers suffered a relative lower efficiency in the research period because of market saturation occurring since the year 2001.
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