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題名：氣候模擬模型的確證問題
書刊名：歐美研究
作者：趙相科／邱獻儀
作者(外文)：Chao, Hsiang-ke／Chiu, Hsien-i
出版日期：2017
卷期：47:1
頁次：頁107-142
主題關鍵詞：氣候變遷；科學模型；氣候模擬模型；確證；不確定性；Climate change；Scientific models；Climate simulation models；Confirmation；Uncertainty
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:49
  • 點閱點閱:7
模擬方法不僅是氣候變遷研究的主流研究方法，亦使用在估算氣候變遷對於經社效益影響的政策分析，故當代氣候研究不但是模型化科學的代表，同時具體地表示模擬模型所在開放複雜體系的研究中所扮演的重要角色。換言之，除氣候模擬的討論可作為科學模型的案例，顯著地反映科學模型的相關重要科哲議題之外，並可展現科學家使用抽象的模型以探討不可控制的開放複雜體系的研究之方法論、知識論、至本體論層面的探討。本文以氣候模擬模型為例，說明傳統邏輯實證論的確證理論不敷科學實作之需，應重新檢視哲學的確證理論與科學模型所扮演的角色。不但是模型化科學的代表，同時具體地表示模擬模型所在開放複雜體系的研究中所扮演的重要角色。換言之，除氣候模擬的討論可作為科學模型的案例，顯著地反映科學模型的相關重要科哲議題之外，並可展現科學家使用抽象的模型以探討不可控制的開放複雜體系的研究之方法論、知識論、至本體論層面的探討。本文以氣候模擬模型為例，說明傳統邏輯實證論的確證理論不敷科學實作之需，應重新檢視哲學的確證理論與科學模型所扮演的角色。
By critically appraising the logical positivist theory of confirma-tion and the philosophical accounts for climate simulation models, this paper investigates the issues of model confirmation in the contexts of scientific practice of climate study. The epistemic merits of simulation models, which are regarded as fictions due to the idealization in the model building process, are to serve as heuristic tools the model users use to achieve a certain purposes. In climate sciences, models are thus evaluated according to whether or not they are adequate for the pur-poses of empirical examinations.
期刊論文
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16.Lloyd, E. A.(2009)。Varieties of support and confirmation of climate models。Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society，83(Suppl. 1)，213-232。  new window
17.Lu, Xun、White, Halbert(2014)。Robustness checks and robustness tests in applied economics。Journal of Econometrics，178(Part 1)，194-206。  new window
18.Maslin, M.、Austin, P.(2012)。Uncertainty: Climate models at their limit?。Nature，486(7402)，183-184。  new window
19.Morrison, M.(2009)。Models, measurement and computer simulation: The changing face of experimentation。Philosophical Studies，143(1)，33-57。  new window
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21.Parker, W. S.(2008)。Computer simulation through an error-statistical lens。Synthese，163(3)，371-384。  new window
22.Parker, W. S.(2009)。Confirmation and adequacy-for-purpose in climate modelling。Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society，83(Suppl. 1)，233-249。  new window
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5.陳瑞麟(20100000)。科學哲學：理論與歷史。臺北：群學。new window  延伸查詢new window
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圖書論文
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5.Oreskes, N.(2010)。My facts are better than your facts: Spreading good news about global warming。How well do facts travel? The dissemination of reliable knowledge。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
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