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題名:柯林頓時期美國對古巴之政策:依據博弈理論之剖析
作者:張光球 引用關係
作者(外文):Chang, Kuang-Chiu
校院名稱:中國文化大學
系所名稱:政治學研究所
指導教授:呂亞力
李本京
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2007
主題關鍵詞:柯林頓古巴博弈理論ClintonCubaGame Theory
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:129
現實主義和新現實主義因無法解釋和預測蘇聯解體,而受到質疑。新自由制度主義學者,例如Robert Keohane,相信國家間存在著相互依賴的合作關係,能有效化解彼此的利益衝突,並藉由彼此間共同的利益促使相互的發展。因此,新自由制度主義在詮釋國際關係系統方面多元於前者。該主義主張自由貿易和排除商業障礙是國家生存多元發展的核心,藉由博弈理論中的囚徒困境
模式可證明國家間存在著合作的基礎。
後冷戰時期大多數國家趨向緩和曾經造成不幸,甚至衝突的緊張關係。然而,近鄰如美國和古巴卻持續隔絕近五十年。冷戰時期他們的作為是可以理解的,但國際大環境已改變,他們仍處於對峙中。在沒有意識形態的對立下,美古間是注定敵對,抑或有解決的方法,值得深入探討。柯林頓是後冷戰時期美國第一位總統,學術界一般將他定位為全球相互依賴國際治理的全球主義者。然而,由於他缺乏外交事務的經驗,上任後多數國家欲觀察
他如何處理國際事務和帶領世界前進。
本論文試圖藉由博弈理論分析柯林頓的古巴政策,並透過個案研究佐證合作有利創造美國和古巴雙贏的局面。同時,比較他和前幾任總統政策的不同處,與什麼原因妨礙美古在後冷戰時期
關係的改善。
As the backdrop that realism and neo-realism played in failing to foresee the collapse of the Soviet Union, neo-liberal institutionalism, or neo-liberalism, surpasses them in interpreting the character of an international system. Theorists of neo-liberalism, like Robert Keohane etc., believe that cooperation can erase the conflicts between nations, due to interdependency among nations. No country can develop on its own without help, so therein lies a joint stake with the other country. For nation’s growth, free trade and the removal of barriers to commerce are the core of multi-development. Evidence of cooperation between nations emerges only after countless back and forth struggles and conflicts which results in these nations becoming prisioners’ dilemma.
After the Cold War, almost all nations soothed the tensions which had caused great discontent and even conflict before, but U.S. and Cuba as close of neighbors as they are still remain blocked off from each other nearly 50 years now. If we were still in the Cold War, would they have fought with reason? Times change, and they still do. Is true that they were doomed to rival or could they have found a way out of their rivalary, instead of forcing their own separate ideologies? Clinton was the first President after the Cold War with less experience about foreign affairs, so most of nations wanted to observe
what he would do and how he’d want to lead the world.
This dissertation analyzes the Clinton’s Cuban policy by means of Game theory through some cases to justify cooperation is good for both sides. Meanwhile, I want to find and compare the differences between Clinton and his predecessors in their policy toward Cuba. In addition, I also want to investigate those factors hindering their
relations after the Cold War.
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(二)期刊
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(三)報紙
聯合報
(四)網路資料
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經濟部國際貿易局,“烏拉圭回合談判,”
http://cwto.trade.gov.tw/webPage.asp?CuItem=11564, 上網檢視日期:2007年1月13日。


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(二)期刊(articles)
Albright, Madeleine. 1998. “The Testing of American Foreign Policy.” Foreign Affairs. Vol.77, No.6 (November/December). pp.50-64.
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Chavez, Lydia. 2001. “CLAS Examines a Changing Cuba.” CLAS, UC Berkeley. (Spring). pp.1-9.
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Erisman, Michael. 1998. “Cuba and the Caribbean Basin: From Pariah to Partner?.” Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs. Vol.40, No.1(Spring). pp87- 94.
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(三)官方文件(documents)
Albright, Madeleine. 1993. “Use of Force in a Post-Cold War.” U.S.
STATE DEPT. DISPATCH. Vol.4, No.39.
Aspin, Les. 1993. Report on the Bottom-up Review. Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense.
Baker, James. 1992. “Securing a Democratic Peace.” U.S. STATE
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Bush, George. 1992. “Efforts to Aid New Independent States at
Defining Moment in History.” U.S. STATE DEPT. DISPATCH.
Vol.3, No.14.
Clinton, Bill. 1993(A). “American Leadership and Global Change.”
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pheric Community of Democracies.” U.S. STATE DEPT
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. 1993(C). “Confronting the Charllenges of a Broader World.”
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Christopher, Warren. 1993. “Statement at Senate Confirmation Hearing.” U.S. STATE DEPT. DISPATCH. Vol.4, No.4.
. 1994(A). “Christopher Advancing the Strategic Priorities of
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No.10.
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DEPT. DISPATCH. Vol.5, No.20.
Cohen, William. 1997. Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review.
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STATE DEPT. DISPATCH. Vol. 4, No. 33.
. 1994. “U.S.-Cuba Joint Communique on Migration.” U.S.
STATE DEPT. DISPATCH. Vol.5, No.37.
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DEPT. DISPATCH.Vol.5, No.11.
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Toward a Mature Partnership.” U.S. STATE DEPT. DISPATCH. Vol.5, No. 11.
(四)報刊雜誌(news)
Allister, Mc. 1995. “Will a Tighter Embargo Really Bring Down
Castro?”. Time. February 20.
Bardach, Ann Louise. 1994. “Our Man in Miami”. The New Republic.
October 3.
Booth, Cathy. 1994. “What’s a Poor Patriotero Do?”. Time. September 12.
Brinkley, Joel. 1987. “Contra Arms Crews Said to Smuggle Drugs”.
New York Times. January 20.
Church, George J. 1994. “Cubans, Go Home”. Time. September 5.
Contreras, Joseph. 2000. “The War Over Elián”. NewsWeek. January 31.
Contreras, Joseph, and Evan Thomas. 2000. “The Long Road Home”.
Newsweek. April 17.
Devroy, Ann. 1996. “Clinton to Tighten Sanctions on Cuba; Charter
Flights Halted; Legislation Backed”. Washington Post.
February 27.
Fedarko, Kevin. 1995. “Open for Business”. Time. February 20.
Gibbs, Nancy R. 1994. “Dire Straits”. Time. August 29.
Golden, Tim. 1994. “Prospects Now for U.S.-Cuban Thaw Are
Fading”. New York Times. December 5.
Gugliotta, Guy. 1993. “Exiles Urge Moderation toward Cuba”.
Washington Post. January 19.
Harries, Owen . 1996. “Madeleine Albright’s ‘Munich Mindset’ ”.
New York Times. December 19.
Jehl, Douglas. 1994. “Clinton, unlike Recent Predecessors, Leaves
the Experts at Home”. New York Times. February 8.
. 1994. “ President Moves to Punish Castro for Cuban
Exodus”. New York Times. August 21.
Kamen, Al. 1994. “Two Strikes on Potential Envoy”. Washington
Post. June 10.
Katel, Peter. 1996. “Brothers to the Rescue: Saints, Sinners, Spies?”. Newsweek. March 11.
Kissinger, Henry. 1994. “Foreign-Policy Challenge: At Sea in a New
World”. Newsweek. June 6.
Lawrence, David. 1992. “Come on, Mr. Mas, Be Fair”. Miami Herald.
January 26.
Loney, Jim. 1998. “Cuban Exile Group Denies Financing Cuba
Violence”. Reuters. July 14.
MacPherson, Myra. 1994. “Between Miami and Havana: Cuba in
Search of Itself”. Washington Post. April 17.
McGeary, Johanna. 1998 “Clash of Faiths”. Time. January 26.
Nagin, Carl. 1998. “Backfire”. New Yorker. January 26.
Nieves, Gail Epstein. 2000. “U.S. Denies Knowing of Shoot-Down
Threat”. Miami Herald. December 28.
Oppenheimer, Andres, and Christopher Marquis. 1996. “Missile Attack
Weighted after Shoot Down”. Miami Herald. October 1.
Padgett, Tim. 2000. “Homeward Bound?”. Time. April 3.
, Timothy Roche, Jay Branegan, Elaine Shannon, and Dolly
Mascareñas. 2000. “The Elian Grab”. Time. May 1.
Rohter, Larry. 1992. “A Rising Cuban-American Leader: Statesman to
Some, Bully to Others”. New York Times. October 29.
. 1995. “An Exile’s Empire: A Special Report: With
Voice of Cuban-Americans a Would-Be Successor to Castro”.
New York Times. May 8.
Silver, Vernon. 1994. “Cuban-Americans Caution on Talks”. New York
Times. September 3.
Suro, Robert. 1994. “U.S., Cuba Agree on Stemming Raft Tide”.
Washington Post. September 10.
Swardson, Anne. 1997. “U.S., EU Make Trade Strides, but Fail to
Reach Settlement”. Washington Post. October 16.
Szulc, Tab. 1996. “A Sunny Day in Rome”. NewsWeek. December 2.
Watson, Russell. 1996. “The Lost Brothers”. NewsWeek. March 4.
(五)、網路資料(Internet)
American Association for World Health. 1997. “Denial of Food and Medicine: The Impact of the U.S. Embargo on the Health and Nutrition in Cuba”.
Http://www.cubasolidarity.net/aawh.html, 上網檢視日期:2004年9月10日。
Albright, Madeleine. 1998. “The Cuba Decision”. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/latin_america/jan-june98/cuba_3-20a.html, 上網檢視日期:2004年9月28日。
Basulto, José. 1996. “Testimony of Jose Basulto, President of Brothers to the Rescue before the Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere”. http://www.hermanos.org/feb24/sub-on-wh.html, 上網檢視日期:2004年3月2日。
BBC. 1997. “U.S. Warning on Israeli Cuba links”. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/32237.stm, 上網檢視日期:2004年9月8日。
. 1998(A). “Castro Rolls Out Red Carpet for Pope”. http://news.bbc.co.uk/l/hi/world/americas/48188.stm, 上網檢視日期:2004年3月12日。
. 1998(B). “Miami’s Cubans Protest about Pope’s Visit”. http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/special_report/1998/pope_in_cuba/49048.stm, 上網檢視日期:2004年3月12日。
. 1998(C). “Cuba Cleans Up for Pope’s Arrival”. http://news.bbc.co.uk/l/hi/world/americas/49056.stm, 上網檢視日期:2004年3月12日。
. 1998(D). “Pope Gives First Mass in Cuba”. http://news.bbc.co.uk/l/hi/world/49734.stm, 上網檢視日期:2004年3月12日。
. 1998(E). “Cuba Radio Hails Pope’s Visit”. http://news.bbc.co.uk/l/hi/world/monitoring/49978.stm, 上網檢視日期:2004年3月12日。
. 1998(F). “Pope Condemns Dogmatic Communism and Capitalism”.
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