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題名：券商研究報告評選模式之建構
作者：何玉菁
作者(外文)：Yu-Ching Ho
校院名稱：國立東華大學
系所名稱：企業管理學系
指導教授：洪坤
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2008
主題關鍵詞：層級分析法；修正式德菲法；券商研究報告；brokerage firms’ research reports；Analytic Hierarchy Process；modified Delphi Method
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自從開放外資可以直接投資台灣股市、外資券商研究報告成為國外法人投資決策的參考依據後，國內的券商也逐漸重視以提供研究報告給客戶的方式，協助客戶擬定投資決策。這使得市場上充斥許多券商研究報告，繼之而來的問題是，應如何評選出具有參考價值的研究報告。回顧相關文獻，多著墨於探討券商研究報告的資訊內涵、投資人是否能因此獲得超額利潤、以及投資建議是否準確，缺乏探討如何評選券商研究報告的研究。在實務界，國際知名的亞元雜誌(Asia Money)自2002年起，每年都會邀請專業投資機構經理人、投信公司經理人和分析師等專業人士，票選最佳券商和分析師；在國內，證券分析協會也研議建立證券分析師評比制度，以提升分析師的研究報告品質，顯示不管在國內或國外，這個議題都非常受到重視。因此，本研究之目的在於從券商研究報告的重要使用者－投信公司研究人員的觀點建構券商研究報告評選模式，先藉由修正式德菲法建立多層級準則架構，再應用層級分析法同時考量質化與量化準則並計算出各準則之權重。對投信公司而言，可以讓新進研究人員減少對研究工作的摸索時間，並且強化研究報告的品質；對券商來講，投信公司是重要客戶之一，瞭解客戶的需求，才能提供客戶更佳的服務；而一般散戶投資人也可以藉由這個模式辨認有價值的研究報告，以提高投資績效。
　　本研究之研究結果分述如下：
1.券商研究報告最重要的評估構面是客觀性，而最重要的評估準則是無誤導性陳述，所以券商在提供個股推薦評等時必須確保沒有誤導性的陳述，完整且清楚說明各項資料與看法的依據與來源。
2.若從券商研究團隊來分析券商研究報告的價值，則研究團隊對產業的研究經驗比研究人員的資歷來得重要，產業研究經驗愈完整愈能強化研究報告的嚴謹性。
3.券商所出具的研究報告必須在一致且前後連貫的基礎上進行分析。
4.引用權威資訊對於提高券商研究報告客觀性的助益並不大。
5.強調財務模型的選擇與使用並無助於增加券商研究報告的價值。
6.研究報告不應只是著墨於市場的熱門議題，券商應將研究心力放在分析未來的市場趨勢，才能提高研究報告的價值。
　　本研究所發展之券商研究報告評選模式的貢獻如下：
1.判斷研究報告的參考價值。
2.提供撰寫研究報告的依循準則。
3.做為分析師評比標準。
4.協助投信投顧研究人員篩選券商研究報告。
Academic research shows that research reports from brokerage firms are often optimistic or biased due to the brokerage firm analysts’ career concerns and conflicts of interest inside the brokerage firm (e.g. Elton et al. ,1986; Womack, 1996; Barber et al., 2001, 2003; Hong & Kubik, 2003; Azzi, Bird, Ghiringhelli & Rossi, 2006; Cowen, Groysberg & Healy, 2006; Jacob, Rock & Weber, 2008). Therefore, carefully evaluation and selection between reports become a key successful factor of creating superior investment performance. There has been increasing attention from researchers and investors on the information content, investors’ abnormal returns, and validity in these research reports. There is little research on how to evaluate and select useful research reports thus far.
Our research is primarily motivated by an underlying desire to better understand how to judge and select useful research reports. By using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and modified Delphi method to develop a weighted model preferred by security investment trust companies’ researchers for evaluating and selecting brokerage firm analysts’ research reports , we shed light on security investment trust companies’ researchers’ consideration and selection of various brokerage firm analysts’ research reports. This model provides a distinct approach to examine brokerage firm’s research reports.
We establish four main-criteria and nineteen sub-criteria to evaluate brokerage firm’s research reports. The primary criterion is the objective of brokerage firm’s research reports. No bias statement, no serious omission and detail description of information source are key sub-criteria to reach objective. Consistent evaluation of target firm’s industry is also important evaluation sub-criterion. Our results contribute to individual investors, newly employed researchers in security investment trust company, and brokerage firms. In one hand, our results should help individual investors and new employed researchers to better understand the usefulness (and limitations) of brokerage firms’ research report. In the other hand, brokerage firms can provide more valuable research reports to satisfy their clients.
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