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題名：投票選項模糊下之檢定與分析：2010年高雄市長選舉的不確定性及投票效應
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：王鼎銘／郭銘峰 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wang, Ding-ming／Kuo, Ming-feng
出版日期：2016
卷期：23:2
頁次：頁87-122
主題關鍵詞：模糊參選人；投票不確定性；孔多塞贏家；區別性檢定；Candidate ambiguity；Voting uncertainty；Condorcet winner；Distinguishability test；Stereotype Logit
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:246
  • 點閱點閱:17
期刊論文
1.吳重禮、許玉芬(20050600)。選民「垂直式分立政府」心理認知與投票行為--2002年北高市長選舉的實證分析。臺灣民主，2(2)，1-30。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Kass, Robert E.、Raftery, Adrian E.(1995)。Bayes factors。Journal of the American Statistical Association，90(430)，773-795。  new window
3.蕭怡靖、游清鑫(20080600)。施政表現與投票抉擇的南北差異--2006年北高市長選舉的探討。臺灣民主季刊，5(2)，1-25。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.王宏忠(20120600)。政治意識及政治菁英的論述對於臺灣民眾議題立場的影響--對Zaller之主流效應及極化效應之檢證。臺灣民主，9(2)，71-123。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Page, Benjamin I.(1976)。The Theory of Political Ambiguity。American Political Science Review，70(3)，742-752。  new window
6.Bartels, Larry M.(1986)。Issue Voting Under Uncertainty: An Empirical Test。American Journal of Political Science，30(4)，709-728。  new window
7.張傳賢、黃信達(20130300)。2010年臺中市長選舉中泛藍選票流失之分析。臺灣民主，10(1)，67-119。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Shepsle, K. A.(1972)。The Strategy of Ambiguity: Uncertainty and Electoral Competition。American Political Science Review，66(2)，555-568。  new window
9.Lax, Jeffrey R.、Phillips, Justin H.(2009)。How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in the States?。American Journal of Political Science，53(1)，107-121。  new window
10.Vrieze, S. I.(2012)。Model selection and psychological theory: A discussion of the differences between the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)。Psychological Methods，17(2)，228-243。  new window
11.陳陸輝、耿曙(20080300)。政治效能感與政黨認同對選民投票抉擇的影響--以2002年北高市長選舉為例。臺灣民主，5(1)，87-118。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.林聰吉(20130600)。欲迎還拒：臺灣民眾對政黨必要性與政黨信任的態度分析。臺灣政治學刊，17(1)，185-226。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.廖達琪、李承訓、陳柏宇(20130500)。選舉制度與立法者競選政見及立法表現：臺灣立法院第六屆及第七屆區域立委之比較。選舉研究，20(1)，73-119。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.Yong, H. P.(1988)。Condorcet's Theory of Voting。American Political Science Review，82(4)，1231-1244。  new window
15.Waldman, P.、Jamieson, K. H.(2003)。Rhetorical Convergence and Issue Knowledge in the 2000 Presidential Election。Presidential Studies Quarterly，33(1)，145-163。  new window
16.Van Deemen, A.、Vergunst, N.(1998)。Empirical Evidence of Paradoxes of Voting in Dutch Elections。Public Choice，97(3)，475-490。  new window
17.Tomz, M.、Van Houweling, R. P.(2009)。The Electoral Implication of Candidate Ambiguity。American Political Science Review，103(1)，83-98。  new window
18.Sellers, Patrick J.(1998)。Strategy and Background in Congressional Campaigns。American Political Science Review，92(1)，159-171。  new window
19.Raftery, A. E.(1995)。Beyesian Model Selection in Social Research。Sociological Methodology，25，111-163。  new window
20.Neath, A. A.、Cavanaugh, J. E.(2012)。The Bayesian Information Criterion: Background, Derivation, and Applications。WIREs Computational Statistics，4，199-203。  new window
21.Meirowitz, A.(2005)。Keeping the Other Candidates Guessing: Electoral Competition when Preference Are Private Information。Public Choice，122(3/4)，299-318。  new window
22.McKelvey, R.(1980)。Ambiguity in Spatial Models of Policy Formation。Public Choice，35，385-402。  new window
23.McGraw, K. M.、Hasecke, E.、Conger, K.(2003)。Ambivalence, Uncertainty and Process of Candidate Evaluation。Political Psychology，24(3)，421-448。  new window
24.Lunt, Mark(2001)。Stereotype Ordinal Regression。Stata Technical Bulletin，10(61)，12-18。  new window
25.Kuss, O.(2006)。On the Estimation of Stereotype Regression Model。Computational Statistics and Data Analysis，50，1877-1890。  new window
26.Kreps, D. M.(1969)。A Representation Theorem for Preferences for Flexibility。Econometrica，46，565-575。  new window
27.Hausman, J.、McFadden, D.(1984)。Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model。Econometrica，52，1377-1398。  new window
28.Greenland, S.(1994)。Alternative Models for Ordinal Logistic Regression。Statistics in Medicine，13(16)，1665-1677。  new window
29.Glazer, A.(1990)。The Strategy of Candidate Ambiguity。American Political Science Review，84(1)，237-241。  new window
30.Gill, J.(2005)。An Entropy Measure of Uncertainty in Vote Choice。Electoral Studies，24(3)，371-392。  new window
31.Feldman, S.、Conover, P. T.(1983)。Candidates, Issues, and Voters: The Role of Inference in Political Perception。The Journal of Politics，45(4)，810-839。  new window
32.Enelow, J.、Hinich, M. J.(1981)。A New Approach to Voter Uncertainty in Downsian Spatial Model。American Journal of Political Science，25(3)，483-493。  new window
33.Conover, P. J.、Feldman, S.(1989)。Candidate Perception in an Ambiguous World: Campaigns, Cues, and Inference Process。American Journal of Political Science，33，912-940。  new window
34.Chappell, H. W.(1994)。Campaign Advertising and Political Ambiguity。Public Choice，79，281-303。  new window
35.Campbell, J. E.(1983)。Ambiguity in the Issue Positions of Presidential Candidates: A Causal Analysis。American Journal of Political Science，27(2)，284-293。  new window
36.Campbell, J. E.(1983)。The Electoral Consequences of Issue Ambiguity: An Examination of Presidential Candidates' Issue Positions from 1968 to 1980。Political Behavior，5(3)，277-291。  new window
37.Callander, Steven、Wilson, Catherine H.(2008)。Context-Dependent Voting and Political Ambiguity。Journal of Public Economics，92(3/4)，565-581。  new window
38.Brady, H. E.、Ansolabehere, S.(1989)。The Nature of Utility Functions in Mass Politics。American Political Science Review，83(1)，143-163。  new window
39.Bernhardt, D.、Ingberman, D.(1985)。Candidate Reputation and Incumbency Effect。Journal of Public Economics，27，47-67。  new window
40.Berinsky, A. J.、Lewis, J. B.(2007)。An Estimate of Risk Aversion in the US Electorate。Quarterly Journal of Political Science，2(2)，139-154。  new window
41.Aragonès, E.、Postlewaite, A.(2002)。Ambiguity in Election Game。Review of Economic Design，7，233-255。  new window
42.Aragonès, E.、Neeman, Z.(2002)。Strategic Ambiguity in Electoral Competition。Journal of Theoretical Politics，12(2)，183-204。  new window
43.Anderson, J. A.(1984)。Regression and Ordered Categorical Variable。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B，46，1-30。  new window
44.Alvarez, M. R.、Franklin, C. H.(1994)。Uncertainty and Political Perceptions。Journal of Politics，56(3)，671-688。  new window
45.Alesina, A.、Cukierman, A.(1990)。The Politics of Ambiguity。Quarterly Journal of Economics，105(4)，829-850。  new window
46.黃紀、林長志、王宏忠(20130500)。三合一選舉中之一致與分裂投票：以2010年高雄市選舉為例。選舉研究，20(1)，1-45。new window  延伸查詢new window
47.張傳賢(20121100)。政黨認同、負面資訊的競爭與選民投票抉擇：2010年五都選舉的實證研究。選舉研究，19(2)，37-70。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.Liu, C. S.、Chiu, S. Y.、Tan, A. C.(2011)。The Pattern of Partisan Defection in the 2010 Mayoral Election。The TEDS 2011 Conference。Taipei。  new window
2.蕭怡靖、林聰吉(2012)。臺灣政治極化之初探：測量與分析。臺灣選舉與民主化調查2012年國際學術研討會：「成熟中的臺灣民主：TEDS2012 調查資料的分析」，(會議日期: 11月4日)。臺北：臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.Tymula, A.、Glimcher, P. W.、Levy, I.、Belmaker, L. A. R.(2012)。Separating Risk and Ambiguity Preferences across the Life Span: Novel Findings and Implications for Policy。  new window
圖書
1.Long, J. Scott、Freese, Jeremy(2006)。Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata。Stata Press。  new window
2.McQuarrie, A. D. R.、Tsai, C. L.(1998)。Regression and Time Series Model Selection。World Scientific。  new window
3.Long, J. Scott(1997)。Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables。Sage Publications。  new window
4.Page, Benjamin I.(1978)。Choices and Echoes in Presidential Elections。Chicago：University of Chicago Press。  new window
5.王業立(2012)。比較選舉制度。臺北：五南書局。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Train, K.(2003)。Discrete Choice Method with Simulation。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
7.O'Hagan, A.、Forster, J.(2004)。Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics Vol. 2B: Bayesian Inference。London：Arnold。  new window
8.Nimmo, D.、Savage, R. L.(1976)。Candidate and Their Images。Santa Monica, CA：Goodyear。  new window
9.Douglas, A. J.(2000)。Behind the Ballot Box: A Citizen's Guide to Voting Systems。Westport, Conn.：Praeger。  new window
10.Alvarez, M. R.(1998)。Information and Elections。Ann Arbor：University of Michigan Press。  new window
11.Agresti, A.(2010)。The Analysis of Ordinal Categorical Data。New York：John Wiley and Sons。  new window
12.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York：Harper and Row。  new window
13.Dahl, Robert A.(1971)。Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition。New Haven, CT：Yale University Press。  new window
14.Almond, Gabriel A.、Powell, G. Bingham Jr.(1978)。Comparative Politics: System, Process, and Policy。Little, Brown and Company。  new window
其他
1.Szembrot, Nichole(2014)。Are Voters Cursed when Politicians Conceal Policy Preferences?，http://ssrn.com/abstract=2723358。  new window
2.Krenn, J.，Haagsma, A. D.，Kessler, F.，Van Bergen, F.(2015)。Ambiguity Attitude and Voting Behaviour in the Netherlands，http://www.lissdata.nl/dataarchive/publications/view/505。  new window
3.張孟湧(2010)。楊秋興宣布參選高雄市長的目的及對選情之可能影響，http://www.npf.org.tw/1/7884。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.王業立(2012)。選舉、民主化與政黨競爭。臺灣民主轉型的經驗與啟示。北京：社會科學文獻出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.McFadden, Daniel(1981)。Econometric Models for Probabilistic Choice。Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications。Cambridge：MIT Press。  new window
3.Weisberg, H. F.、Fiornia, M. P.(1980)。Candidate Preference under Uncertainty: An Expanded View of Rational Voting。The Electorate Reconsidered。Beverly Hills：Sage。  new window
4.Trautmann, S. T.、Van de Kuilen, G.(2014)。Ambiguity Attitudes。Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making。Malden, MA：Wiley-Blackwell。  new window
5.McFadden, D.(1984)。Econometric Analysis of Qualitative Response Models。Handbook of Econometrics。Amsterdam：North-Holland。  new window
6.Long, J. S.(2015)。Regression Models for Nominal and Ordinal Outcomes。The SAGE Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference。London：SAGE。  new window
7.Koopmans, T. C.(1964)。On the Flexibility of Future Preferences。Human Judgments and Optimality。New York：Wiley。  new window
8.王鼎銘(2012)。類別資料的迴歸模型。社會及行為科學研究法（三）：資料分析。臺北：東華書局。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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