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題名:探討臺灣毛豬批發市場的豬隻品種差異對交易價格波動之影響
作者:林文宏 引用關係
作者(外文):Lin, Wen-Hung
校院名稱:中華大學
系所名稱:科技管理博士學位學程
指導教授:賀力行
郭恆宏
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2015
主題關鍵詞:臺灣黑豬毛豬品種價格波動拍賣GARCH模型Black hogBreedsPrice volatilityAuctionGARCH
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本研究依據臺灣苗栗肉品市場,由「黑豬」與「白豬」的個別價格,經由專業承銷人的標購動態差異,分析這兩種不同品種毛豬的交易價格波動現象與相互價格的關聯。雖然黑白豬外觀特徵明顯、辨識度高,但根據以往的文獻研究顯示,毛豬批發價格的差異,均來自於豬隻本身個體的差異研究,並沒有針對毛豬品種這項因素所造成的差異,做價格波動與相互價格的關聯研究,特別是再經承銷人於隨機抽籤順序制度下的標購動態價格差異,因此,本研究利用多變量GARCH模型體系中的BEKK模型,佐以計算CCC模型的固定相關係數,蒐集 2009年1月至2013年12月共60個月,針對每日隨機產生的順序拍賣,所產生的黑豬與白豬平均價格,總共1,485筆資料進行分析研究。研究結果顯示:一、黑豬和白豬受自身價格前期影響。二、黑豬與白豬價格不具有明顯的相互拉抬效果。三、黑豬與白豬的價格波動的結構不相同,白豬價格波動的價格因素大於非價格因素,黑豬價格波動則相反。四、黑豬與白豬的價格波動的關聯性低。研究結果,不僅可提供政府輔導不同品種養豬戶做為擬定政策建議,亦可提供養豬戶飼養不同品種的經營決策及畜產品業者的銷售策略依據,另可提供國內消費者食用不同品種的消費參考。
This study aimed to explore the differences of black hog and white hog prices evaluated by professional agents. By using the data from the auction market in Miaoli, this study analyzes daily price volatility and relationship of auction prices between these two different species. The appearances of black hog and white hog have obviously physical differentials. However, previous studies mostly focus on the differences in hog auction prices, or differences caused by individual hogs. Few studies have aimed at price volatility associated with different hog breeds. This study applied BEKK model from multivariate GARCH model also reported additionally the coefficient from constant conditional correlation models. The average prices of black hog and white hog came from daily sequential random-ordering auctions. Data was collected from January 2009 to December 2013. Total 1,485 auction days are included. The results indicated that both previous black hog and white hog prices had significant impacts on the volatility of their current prices individually. Secondly, the prices of black hog and white hog did not affect each other. Third, the structures of price volatility of the black hog and white hog are different. White hog’s price factors of volatility are greater than the non-price volatility factors; alternatively, the non-price factors on black hog’s volatility are greater than the price volatility factor. Finally, the relationship of price volatility between black hog and white hog is relatively small. The results not only provide the government to develop proper policy for assisting hog farmers and upgrading the hog industry, but also help stakeholders as a marketing guide and a reference to realize domestic consumers’ pork preferences.
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