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題名：經濟投票與政黨輪替--以臺灣縣市長選舉為例
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：黃智聰 引用關係／程小綾
作者(外文)：Huang, Jr-tsung／Cheng, Hsiao-ling
出版日期：2005
卷期：12:2
頁次：頁45-78
主題關鍵詞：地方選舉；政黨輪替；連任；經濟投票；Economic voting；Local election；Party rotation；Renew term of office
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(16) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:16
  • 共同引用共同引用:73
  • 點閱點閱:103
本文將經濟投票理論應用至台灣縣市長選舉，以台灣21個縣市在1989年至2001年4屆的縣市長選舉作為研究對象，探討致使地方首長選舉結果出現政黨輪替的可能變數，已彌補現有文獻僅考量政治層面、以及中央層級選舉之不足。經由probit模型估計後發現，地方失業率於選舉年惡化並不會影響縣市長選舉結果；反而是全國失業率對選舉結果有顯著影響。一般而言，總統政黨執政之縣市皆較非總統政黨執政之縣市不易發生政黨輪替，但若全國失業率於選前攀升，則前者所享有的相對優勢會因此而降低，連帶使其被輪替的機率提升。而現任者競選連任則有利於現任執政政黨於選戰中勝出。最後，一黨連任屆數與其發生政黨輪替的機率呈正向關係。
This paper applies the economic voting theory to analyze the county magistrates and city mayors elections in Taiwan and uses a county-and city-level pooling data from 1989 to 2001 to examine the possible factors which cause the party rotation of the county magistrates and city mayors elections. After estimating Probit model, the primary finding is that the local unem-ployment rates have no impact on election outcomes of the county magis-trates and city mayors. Instead, the national unemployment rates have a sig-nificant effect on election outcomes. Generally, the probabilities of party ro-tation of the counties and cities ruled by the president’s party are lower than others. However, this advantage will be damaged as the national unemploy-ment rate is higher in the election year than that in the previous year. Addi-tionally, the incumbents are more likely to defeat the challengers and renew their term of office. Finally, the longer the governing party rules the county or city, the higher the probability of party rotation for this county or city.
期刊論文
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19.陳陸輝(19980500)。Presidential Voting of 1996 in Taiwan: An Analysis。選舉研究，5(1)，139-160。new window  new window
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學位論文
1.王柏燿(2002)。台灣選民經濟投票之研究：1996-2001年(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.簡鈺珒(2003)。2000年總統大選選民投票抉擇分析：候選人評價之影響，0。  延伸查詢new window
3.韓秀珍(2002)。政黨、派系與選舉三角關係之研究： 2001年市長、立委選舉以及2002年市長議員選舉基隆市個案分析，0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Lewis-Beck, Michael S.、Rice, Tom W.(1992)。Forecasting elections。Washington, D.C.：Congressional Quarterly Press。  new window
2.Lewis-Beck, Michael S.(1988)。Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies。Ann Arbor, MI：University of Michigan Press。  new window
3.Schumpeter, Joseph A.(1976)。Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy。New York：Haper & Row。  new window
4.Fiorina, Morris P.(1981)。Retrospective Voting in American National Elections。Yale University Press。  new window
5.Dahl, Robert A.(1971)。Polyarchy: Participation & Opposition。New Haven, CT。  new window
6.Lijphart, Arend(1984)。Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-One Countries。Yale University Press。  new window
7.臺灣省選舉委員會(1990)。七十八年、七十九年公職人員選舉臺灣省選務實錄。臺灣省選舉委員會。  延伸查詢new window
8.Weisberg, Herbert F.、Niemi, Richard G.(1993)。Controversies in Voting Behavior。Controversies in Voting Behavior。San Francisco, CA。  new window
9.Campbell, A. G.、Converse, P. E.、Miller, W. E.、Stokes, D. E.(1960)。The American Vote。The American Vote。New York, NY。  new window
10.(1994)。八十二、八十三年公職人員選舉臺灣省選務實錄。八十二、八十三年公職人員選舉臺灣省選務實錄。南投縣。  延伸查詢new window
11.(1998)。八十六年、八十七年公職人員選舉臺灣省選務實錄。八十六年、八十七年公職人員選舉臺灣省選務實錄。南投縣。  延伸查詢new window
12.(2002)。九十年暨九十一年各項公職人員選舉臺灣省選務實錄。九十年暨九十一年各項公職人員選舉臺灣省選務實錄。南投縣。  延伸查詢new window
13.蕭政(1995)。Analysis of Panel Data。Analysis of Panel Data。New York, NY。  new window
14.Lafay, Jean D.(1985)。Important Political Change and the Stability of the Popularity Function: Before and After the French Election of 1981。Economic Conditions and Election Outcomes: The United States and Western Europe。New York, NY。  new window
其他
1.行政院主計處(1988)。中華民國臺灣地區人力資源調查統計年報，臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
2.行政院主計處(1994)。中華民國統計月報，臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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