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題名：臺灣立委選制改革對現任者競選優勢之影響
書刊名：經濟論文叢刊
作者：佘健源 引用關係
作者(外文)：Sher, Chien-yuan
出版日期：2017
卷期：45:3
頁次：頁453-494
主題關鍵詞：現任者優勢；單一選區相對多數決制；單記不可讓渡投票制；巢狀勝算對數模型；Incumbency advantage；First-past-the-post voting；Single non-transferable voting；Nested logit model
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:94
  • 點閱點閱:34
現任者優勢指的是現任議員在選舉中，因現任者的身份，而享有的競選優勢。我國自2008年起，立委選舉發生兩大變革，一是選制由過去的單記不可讓渡投票制改為小選區相對多數制，二是人數減半。因此變革，之後的現任者將能嚇阻高素質挑戰者的投入，及擁有更多資源從事選區服務，從而使其具備強大的競選優勢。本研究使用「台灣選舉與民主化調查」的面訪資料，以多層次巢狀勝算對數模型分析後發現，在2012年的立委選戰中，現任立委享有相當顯著地競選優勢，但此現象在2004年的選戰中卻不明顯。由於此現象對我國民主發展有不利影響，吾人宜及早因應。
Incumbency advantage is the benefit of being an incumbent in an election. In 2008, the legislative electoral system in Taiwan was switched from single non-transferable voting to first-past-the-post voting. The number of seats was also halved from 225 to 113. After this change, incumbents were able to deter quality challengers from running, and they could also deploy more resources in constituency services than their predecessors. Therefore, incumbents in the 2012 legislative election should have more advantage than those in the 2004 election. The author used a survey data set from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study. The empirical results indicated that being an incumbent could offer statistically significantly advantage in the 2012 election, but incumbency advantage was not statistically significant in the 2004 election. In light of the damage of incumbency advantage in the U.S. democracy, we should seriously consider measures to mitigate the damage.
期刊論文
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2.Ferejohn, John A.(1977)。On the Decline of Competition in Congressional Elections。American Political Science Review，71，166-174。  new window
3.Gelman, Andrew、King, Gary(1990)。Estimating Incumbency Advantage Without Bias。American Journal of Political Science，34(4)，1142-1164。  new window
4.黃智聰、程小綾(20051100)。經濟投票與政黨輪替--以臺灣縣市長選舉為例。選舉研究，12(2)，45-78。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Levitt, Steven D.、Wolfram, Catherine D.(1997)。Decomposing the Sources of Incumbency Advantage in the U.S. House。Legislative Studies Quarterly，22(1)，45-60。  new window
6.劉正山(20091100)。2008年總統大選競選期間政黨支持者選擇性接觸媒體傾向的分析。選舉研究，16(2)，51-70。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.黃德福、黃靖麟(20080500)。回溯投票或議題投票：2005年臺北縣與高雄縣縣長選舉之比較分析。選舉研究，15(1)，19-49。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Berry, Steven T.(1994)。Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation。RAND Journal of Economics，25，242-262。  new window
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10.Manski, Charles F.(1993)。Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem。Review of Economic Studies，60(3)，531-542。  new window
11.吳宜侃(20050600)。SNTV選制下「立法委員連任勝選幅度模型」建立之嘗試--以第四屆區域立委為例。臺灣民主季刊，2(2)，71-99。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.王鼎銘、范恩邦(20101200)。立委參選人競選支出的選舉效果：Jacobson支出理論在臺灣新選制下的再驗。臺灣政治學刊，14(2)，3-35。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.(2011)。年輕有話題，型男大美女，國民黨刺客戰術大揭密。新新聞周刊，1272，22-24。  延伸查詢new window
14.Ansolabehere, Stephen、Snyder, James M.、Stewart, Charles III(2000)。Old Voters, New Voters, and the Personal Vote: Using Redistricting to Measure the Incumbency Advantage。American Journal of Political Science，44(1)，17-34。  new window
15.Ansolabehere, Stephen、Gerber, Alan(1997)。Incumbency Advantage and the Persistence of Legislative Majorities。Legislative Studies Quarterly，22(2)，161-178。  new window
16.Alvaerz, R. Michael、Nagler, Jonathan(2000)。A New Approach for Modelling Strategic Voting in Multiparty Elections。British Journal of Political Science，30(1)，57-75。  new window
17.Ackerberg, Daniel A.、Rysman, Marc(2005)。Unobserved Product Differentiation in Discrete-Choice Model: Estimating Price Elasticities and Welfare Effects。RAND Journal of Economics，36，1-19。  new window
18.Burnham, Walter Dean(1974)。Communications。American Political Science Review，68，207-211。  new window
19.Ashworth, Scott、de Mesquita, Ethan Bueno(2008)。Electoral Selection, Strategic Challenger Entry, and the Incumbency Advantage。Journal of Politics，70，1006-1025。  new window
20.Erikson, Robert S.(1972)。Malapportionment, Gerrymandering, and Party Fortunes in Congressional Elections。American Political Science Review，66，1234-1245。  new window
21.Erikson, Robert S.(1971)。The Advantage of Incumbency in Congressional Elections。Polity，3，395-405。  new window
22.Carson, Jamie L.、Engstrom, Erik J.、Roberts, Jason M.(2007)。Candidate Quality, the Personal Vote, and the Incumbency Advantage in Congress。American Political Science Review，101，289-301。  new window
23.Cardell, N. Scott(1997)。Variance Components Structures for Extreme-Value and Logistic Distributions with Application to Models of Heterogeneity。Econometric Theory，13，185-213。  new window
24.Gowrisankaran, Gautam、Mitchell, Matthew F.、Moro, Andrea(2008)。Electoral Design and Voter Welfare from the US Senate: Evidence from a Dynamic Selection Model。Review of Economic Dynamics，11，1-17。  new window
25.Fiorina, Morris P.(1977)。The Case of the Vanishing Marginals: The Bureaucracy Did It。American Political Science Review，71(1)，177-181。  new window
26.Hirano, Shigeo、Snyder, James M.(2009)。Using Multimember District Elections to Estimate the Sources of the Incumbency Advantage。American Journal of Political Science，53，292-306。  new window
27.Heiss, Florian(2002)。Structural Choice Analysis with Nested Logit Models。Stata Journal，2，227-252。  new window
28.Hayama, A.(1992)。Incumbency Advantage in Japanese Elections。Electoral Studies，11，46-57。  new window
29.Hall, Andrew B.、Snyder, James M. Jr.(2015)。How Much of the Incumbency Advantage is Due to Scare-Off。Political Science Research and Methods，3(3)，493-514。  new window
30.Grigolon, Laura、Verboven, Frank(2014)。Nested Logit or Random Coefficients Logit? A Comparison of Alternative Discrete Choice Models of Product Differentiation。Review of Economics and Statistics，96，916-935。  new window
31.King, Gary、Gelman, Andrew(1991)。Systemic Consequences of Incumbency Advantage in U.S. House Elections。American Journal of Political Science，35，110-138。  new window
32.Katz, Jonathan N.、King, Gary(1999)。A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data。American Political Science Review，93，15-32。  new window
33.McKean, Margaret、Scheiner, Ethan(2000)。Japan's New Electoral System: La plus ca change。Electoral Studies，19，447-477。  new window
34.Mayhew, David R.(1974)。Congressional Elections: The Case of the Vanishinh Marginals。Polity，6，295-317。  new window
35.Kostroski, Warren Lee(1973)。Party and Incumbency in Postwar Senate Elections: Trends, Patterns, and Models。American Political Science Review，67，1213-1234。  new window
36.Hsieh, Fuh-Sheng John、Lacy, Dean、Niou, Emerson M. S.(1998)。Retrospective and Prospective Voting in a One-Party-Dominant Democracy: Taiwan's 1996 Presidential Election。Public Choice，97(3)，383-399。  new window
37.黃秀端(19940300)。經濟情況與選民投票抉擇。東吳政治學報，3，97-123。new window  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.Brock, William A.、Durlauf, Steven N.(2003)。Multinomial Choice with Social Interactions。  new window
學位論文
1.陳昭凱(1997)。立法委員競選連任之個案研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.王柏燿(2002)。台灣選民經濟投票之研究：1996-2001年(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.蔡佳泓(1996)。立法委員的選民服務之個案研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Cameron, A. Colin、Trivedi, Pravin K.(2010)。Microeconometrics Using Stata。College Station, Texas：Stata Press。  new window
2.Greene, William H.(2008)。Econometric Analysis。Upper Saddle River, NJ：Pearson Education。  new window
3.King, Gary(1997)。A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data。Princeton, N.J.：Princeton University Press。  new window
4.Greene, William H.(2000)。Econometric Analysis。Prentice-Hall。  new window
5.Jacobson, Gary C.(2004)。The Politics of Congressional Elections。New York：Longman。  new window
6.Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.(2002)。Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data。Cambridge, Massachusetts：MIT Press。  new window
其他
1.(20110313)。62人搶33選區　綠委初選參選爆炸。  延伸查詢new window
2.中央通訊社(20140112)。高雄市長之爭，陳菊楊秋興再戰，http://www.cna.com.tw/topic/Popular/4259-2/201401120031-1.aspx。  延伸查詢new window
3.(20110319)。立委選舉登記怯戰？國民黨9選區開天窗。  延伸查詢new window
4.(20131206)。蘇貞昌看中，邱振瑋婉拒選新竹縣長，http://newtalk.tw/news/view/2013-12-06/42593?pcview=1。  延伸查詢new window
5.(20120101)。刺客效應，照亮艱困選區。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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