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題名：台商海外營運環境不確定性之認知與因應風險管理策略之研究-以資訊電子業與紡織業赴大陸投資為例
作者：王維元 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wei-Yuan Wang
校院名稱：國立政治大學
系所名稱：企業管理學系
指導教授：司徒達賢
于卓民
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2001
主題關鍵詞：環境不確定性；風險管理策略；對外投資；Environmental Uncertainty；Risk Management Strategy；FDI
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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摘要
台灣地小人稠、天然資源又有限，近些年又遭逢生產上的諸多不利因素如環保意識抬頭、勞工成本上揚、生產因素不足等，致使企業為尋求經濟與環境的突破點，紛紛前往海外投資設廠。企業對外投資是一項複雜的決策過程，相對於國內，企業對地主國投資要面臨更多諸如政治、政策、總體經濟…等等的不確定性，而對環境不確定認知的不足經常是讓廠商裹足不前或鎩羽而歸的主要原因。有鑑於此，本研究嘗試建立「環境不確定性」與「風險管理策略」間的配適關係，並導入資源的觀念，希望對理論與實務都有所貢獻。
本研究試圖回答：在何種認知環境不確定性下，搭配企業本身資源豐富程度，企業應採取何種的風險管理策略？在探討了六家公司共九個海外設廠投資案後，再結合文獻推導出可供驗證的假設，例如：當認知的環境不確定性高而企業資源豐富時傾向採取「自我掌控」的策略；當認知的環境不確定性中等而企業資源豐富時傾向採取「合作」的策略；當認知的環境不確定性低而企業資源豐富時傾向採取「分散風險」的策略；當認知的環境不確定性高而企業資源不豐富時傾向採取「移轉風險」的策略；當認知的環境不確定性中等而企業資源不豐富時傾向採取「緩衝」的策略；等。本研究之結果可供台商對外投資和經營之參考。
在考慮抽樣的可行性，本研究以台灣企業前往大陸地區投資設廠為樣本，並以設廠時所面臨的「環境不確定性」為樣本點。同時樣本必須符合下列條件：1.在大陸地區設廠的期間設定為1994-1999年間設廠者，且至2000年底仍持續經營並登錄有通訊地址者；2.資訊電子及紡織產業之廠商在大陸地區有生產或生產兼行銷活動的投資案件；3.大陸投資事業與台灣事業經營項目雷同；4.台商母公司至少握有50%股權的大陸投資案件。最後總共回收169份問卷，扣除漏答嚴重無法補足、產業不符、設廠年限不符合選取標準(1994-1999)等無效問卷計27份，實際回收的有效問卷共142份。其中屬於電子資訊業的有74家，佔全體回收樣本的52.1%；而紡織業共有68家，佔全體回收樣本的47.9%
而在資料分析方法上，本研究採用次數分析、卡方、t與z檢定、因素分析、相關分析、與多元羅吉斯迴歸模型(multi-nominal logtistic regression model)等統計分析方法來實證。最後實證的結果為假設1：資源越豐富所認知的一般環境不確定性越低，得到部分支持；假設2：公司資源的豐富程度與所認知的政治環境不確定性會影響採行的風險管理策略，得到部分支持；假設3：公司資源的豐富程度與所認知的政府政策環境不確定性會影響採行的風險管理策略，得到部分支持；假設4：公司資源的豐富程度與所認知的總體經濟環境不確定性會影響採行的風險管理策略，得到部分支持；假設5：公司資源的豐富程度與所認知的社會環境不確定性會影響採行的風險管理策略，得到部分支持；假設6：公司資源的豐富程度與所認知的供應環境不確定性會影響採行的風險管理策略，得到部分支持；假設7：公司資源的豐富程度與所認知的顧客環境不確定性會影響採行的風險管理策略，得到部分支持；假設8：公司資源的豐富程度與所認知的競爭環境不確定性會影響採行的風險管理策略，得到部分支持；假設9：銷售地區不同，影響風險管理策略，得到支持。
Abstract
The development of economy in Taiwan was bounded in the past few years owing to its limited natural resources, rising labor cost, and what worse, an unstable political environment. The multinational businesses were seeking opportunities of foreign direct investment (FDI) to surmount the restriction. It is not unusual for a successful business to fail from international arena in that the political, policy, and macroeconomic uncertainty far beyond their expectation when they operate in a domestic environment. In this research we try to explore and to get an improved understanding of the relationship between environmental uncertainty and risk management strategy in the perspective of resource.
We try to answer the following questions: What would be the optimal typology that matches the types of perceived environmental uncertainty, business resource, and the strategies of risk management? The hypotheses are derived from literature review and empirical investigations of nine FDI cases from six MNEs. For example, the MNEs should use “self-control strategy” when they have abundant resources and when the environmental uncertainty is high. The “cooperative strategy” is adopted when they have abundant resource and when the level of environmental uncertainty is medium. The “risk-shifting strategy” is recommended when they have limited resources and face with high environmental risk. When the environmental uncertainty is medium and business have limited resources the “buffer strategy” is considered. Our arguments derived from theoretical reasoning as well as field observations are beneficial to Taiwanese MNEs.
The empirical sample is restricted to the following qualifications: (1) companies with investments materialized in the period 1994 through 1999 and remained tractable in 2000; (2) companies in electronic industry or textile industry and have fiscal operations or in accompanying with marketing activities in mainland China; (3) the investments in mainland China are identical to their counterparts in Taiwan; (4) home companies in Taiwan hold at least 50% of the shareholding of the investment in mainland China. We use the sampling approach for empirical study. There are 142 effective samples out of 169 respondents, including 74 (52.1%) electronic companies and 68 (47.9%) textile companies.
We use frequency analysis, Chi-squared, t and z statistics, factor analysis, canonical correlation, and multi-nominal logistical regression model in empirical testing. The results verify hypothesis 1 that the more abundant resources the companies have, the lower perceived environmental uncertainty. Hypothesis 2 that the level of a company’s resource and perceived uncertainty of political environment affect company’s risk management strategy gets mixed support. Hypothesis 3 that the level of company’s resource and perceived uncertainty of governmental policy affect company’s risk management strategy receives partial support. Hypothesis 4 that the level of company’s resource and perceived uncertainty of macro-economy affect company’s risk management strategy receives partial support. Hypothesis 5 that the level of company’s resource and perceived uncertainty of social environment affect company’s risk management strategy receives partial support. Hypothesis 6 that the level of company’s resource and perceived uncertainty of input resources affect company’s risk management strategy receives partial support. Hypothesis 7 that the level of company’s resource and perceived uncertainty of customers’ consumption affect company’s risk management strategy receives partial support. Hypothesis 8 that the level of company’s resource and perceived uncertainty of competitive environment affect company’s risk management strategy receives partial support. Hypothesis 9 that the risk management strategy is affected regional factor is supported.
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