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題名：臺灣國際觀光旅館發展趨勢之動態模擬
書刊名：觀光休閒學報
作者：蕭志同／劉仲戌／校正興
作者(外文)：Hsiao, Chih-tung／Liu, Chung-shu／Hsiao, Cheng-hsing
出版日期：2016
卷期：22:3
頁次：頁311-338
主題關鍵詞：旅館產業；產業發展；政策分析；系統動態學；決策模擬；Hotel industry；Industry growing trend；Policy analysis；System dynamics；Strategy simulation
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:30
  • 點閱點閱:28
觀光產業發展首要便是旅館經營，台灣旅館產業經歷衰退與再成長，產業變動劇烈，如 何找出最有利發展模式便為關鍵議題。本研究以系統動態學方法探討台灣國際觀光旅館產業 型態及發展結構與趨勢；透過文獻及訪談，整理旅館產業一般特性與台灣特色，並找到三個 關鍵環路，在各項因素交互作用下，形成複雜、動態的系統結構。研究發現產業投資策略對 未來發展影響最大，分析需求面旅客人數及供給面服務品質，最終反映在收入及盈餘，進而 帶動投資與成長。透過模擬結果，廠商應謹慎評估投資，因過度投資將導致住房率下降，進 而影響獲利。政府可從需求面對總房間數控管，亦可考慮舉辦大型展覽活動、增加國內旅客 住房人數，從而提升產業發展。
The operation of hotels comes to mind when talking about the development of the tourism industry. The Taiwanese hotel industry had gone through recession and re-growth. Finding the most effective mode of growth has become the most important issue. This research applies system dynamics to study the structure, development pattern and trends of Taiwan’s international tourist hotel industry. Through literature reviews and interviews, the general and the salient characteristics of Taiwan’s hotel industry were identified. In addition, three key causal loops were discovered in the system. Various factors interact with each other, forming a complex and dynamic structure. This research found that the main influence of Taiwan’s international tourist hotel industry development is the investment strategy. By simulation the increase of the number of tourists and the improvement of the service quality will eventually result in increased revenue and profits, and will lead to even more investment. According to the simulation results, owners of hotels should evaluate investments cautiously. Overinvestment in the industry will result in a decline in average occupancy rates, and thus affect industry profitability. The government should consider regulating the total number of rooms. In addition, the government can also hold large-scale exhibitions to attract foreign tourists and increase the maximum number of mainland tourists to Taiwan to enhance the development of the hotel industry.
期刊論文
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研究報告
1.交通部觀光局(2015)。103年來台旅客統計。  延伸查詢new window
2.交通部觀光局(2015)。2013至2015年觀光收支統計。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.謝琬菱(2006)。旅館從業人員人格特質與工作滿意度之研究--以台灣國際觀光旅館為例(碩士論文)。國立高雄餐旅學院。  延伸查詢new window
2.蕭志同(2004)。台灣汽車產業發展：系統動態模式(博士論文)。國立交通大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.王郁棻(2009)。教育訓練滿意度、管理職能與工作績效之關係--以台南地區CHDT及CHS旅館管理證照班為例(碩士論文)。南台科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.李世堅(2011)。謀事在人，成事在天--台灣國際觀光旅館營運變化影響因素的分析(碩士論文)。國立高雄應用科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.周宣吟(2010)。國際觀光旅館餐廳員工組織政治知覺、工作滿意與組織公民行為關係之研究(碩士論文)。高雄餐旅學院。  延伸查詢new window
6.校正興(2013)。台灣國際觀光旅館產業發展趨勢模擬--系統動態學方法論之應用(碩士論文)。東海大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.蔡佳蓉(2013)。國際觀光旅館的企業社會責任、企業形象、消費者認同度與購買意圖關係的探討(碩士論文)。中國文化大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.鐘婉文(2014)。知覺風險影響消費者選擇國內五星級飯店 消費行為之研究--以大台北地區居民為例(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
9.丁一倫(2003)。影響員工離職傾向因素之探討--以台中地區國際觀光旅館為例(碩士論文)。朝陽科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.屠益民、張良政(2010)。系統動力學--理論與應用。台北：智勝文化事業。  延伸查詢new window
2.Coyle, R. G.(1996)。System Dynamics Modeling: A Practical Approach。Chapman & Hall。  new window
3.Zeithaml, V. A.、Bitner, M. J.、Gremler, D. D.(2009)。Services marketing: Integrating customer focus across the firm。New York：McGraw-Hill。  new window
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6.Forrester, J. W.(1971)。World Dynamics。Cambridge, MA：Wright-Allen Press, Inc.。  new window
7.吳勉勤(2013)。旅館管理理論與實務。台北：華立圖書。  延伸查詢new window
8.詹益政、黃清峯(2005)。餐旅業經營管理。台北：五南文化。  延伸查詢new window
9.楊朝仲、張良正、葉欣誠、陳昶憲、葉昭憲(2013)。系統動力學思維與應用。台北：五南文化。  延伸查詢new window
10.Buttle, F.(1986)。Hotel and food service marketing。London：Cassell。  new window
11.Coyle, R. G.(1979)。Management system dynamics。Chichester：John Wiley & Sons。  new window
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15.蕭志同、戴俞萱、柳淑芬(2010)。決策分析與模擬：組織機構與企業發展的途徑。臺北：東華書局。  延伸查詢new window
16.謝長宏(1980)。系統動態學：理論、方法與應用。臺北：中興管理顧問公司。  延伸查詢new window
17.Bryk, Anthony S.、Raudenbush, Stephen W.(1992)。Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods。Sage Publications。  new window
18.Senge, Peter M.(1990)。The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of The Learning Organization。Bantan Doubleday Dell Publishing Group, Inc.。  new window
其他
1.Forrester, J. W.(1995)。The beginning of system dynamics，http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-beginning-of-system-dynamics。  new window
圖書論文
1.Forrester, J. W.、Senge, P. M.(1980)。Tests for building confidence in system dynamics models。System dynamics。Amsterdam：North-Holland。  new window
 
 
 
 
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