近數十年來，中國大陸及臺灣地區的人口都已經成功的從傳統高生育水準轉變現代化的低生育水準。比較兩地區人口生育轉變，可以發現兩地生育年齡結構的變化十分相似，但是生育率下降的趨勢及步調卻有顯著的差異。 中臺兩地人口有共同的文化傳統，但目前卻分別處於兩種不同的政治及經濟體系中，在這種情況下，兩地人口成長及社經發展的趨勢及赻調有所不同。回顧五百年來中人口成長的趨勢，再度證實中國古代人口的出生率及死亡率主要是反映人口對自然資源壓力的生態響應，本研究發現生態響應在現代中大陸及臺灣實施家庭計劃後將逐漸消失。在臺灣，家庭計劃的普侑是夫婦們在社會經濟發展有利於小家庭情況下所作的一項理性選擇，而在中國大陸，家庭的大小大多由政府來決定。 本研究發現的政策含義對中國大陸及臺灣人口不盡相同。目前，臺灣的經濟已接近成熟階段，因此，社經因素對生育水準的影響已甚薄弱。最有效的措施是靠制度性因素影響夫婦們的理想子女數，以求達到扭轉生育率下降的趨勢。中國大陸在1978年經濟改革後，已經營造出一個可與臺灣1970年代相比的社經環境，倘若大陸的經濟發展成功，並且伴隨著經濟發展的都市化、衛生醫藥改進等因素能夠充分發揮影響力，以臺灣經驗為借鏡，大陸的總生育率也祇能降低到平均每一婦女出生1.6個嬰兒的水準。顯然，單祇追求經濟發展並不能達到中共當局訂定的生育目標。

　　　　　Mainland China and Taiwan have both successfully undergone remarkable transitions from high to low fertility in recent decades. Comparing the transitions of the two Chinese populations brings out striking similarities in the changes in age patterns of fertility, but distinctive contrasts between the trends and speed of declines. China and Taiwan also share common cultural background and similar traditions, but have different political and economic systems. Under those circumstances, the trends and paces of population growth, economic and social development are different. An overview of the history of population dynamics in the past 500 years reaffirms the assertion that fertility and mortality rates in ancient China were primarily reflections of biological responses to population pressure on resources. The results of the regression analysis of this study demonstrates that this density-dependent relationship has gradually vanished as the deliberate control of fertility prevails in contemporary China and Taiwan. The prevalence of fertility control is in large part attributable in Taiwan to the rational response of the population to changes in economic and social conditions that favor fewer children while the size of families in China is largely prescribed by the government there. The policy implications of this study are divergent for China and Taiwan. The economy of Taiwan has been approaching maturity, and hence, the effect of socioeconomic factors on fertility has come near to the end. It has to rely on direct institutional factors to achieve the policy goal of returning fertility to a stable replacement level. China's economic reform in 1978 has provided an economic environment comparable to Taiwan in the 1970s. if its economic growth progresses successfully, and if the negative effects on fertility which accompany economic growth work fully in strength, as in the Taiwan experience, the total fertility rate would reach only a level of 1.6 children per woman. Obviously, development alone will not have a sufficient contraceptive effect for China to achieve its official fertility goal of one child per family.