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題名：候選人形象、候選人情感溫度計、與總統選民投票行為
書刊名：臺灣民主季刊
作者：黃秀端 引用關係
作者(外文)：Hawang, Shiow-duan
出版日期：2005
卷期：2:4
頁次：頁1-30
主題關鍵詞：候選人形象；情感溫度計；選人的整體評價；政黨喜好程度；Candidate image；Feeling thermometer；Candidate evaluation；Party preference
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(35) 博士論文(6) 專書(3) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:35
  • 共同引用共同引用:113
  • 點閱點閱:151
總統選舉是國家領導人的選舉，候選人在選戰過程中受到媒體之囑目是其他選舉之候選人無法相提並論的，再加上民國93年的總統選舉競爭相當激烈，因此本文認為候選人形象在總統選舉中應扮演相當關鍵的角色。候選人形象指的是候選人在選民心目中的圖像，包括：候選人魄力、清廉度、誠實有信用、暸解民眾需要、以及親和力。本文首先分析兩位候選人在選民心目中的形象，接著分析候選人形象與情感溫度計之間的關係，亦即候選人形象是否為決定對候選人整體評估的主要因素。政治學者常常用對政治人物感覺分數，也就是對政治人物的情感溫度計，來測量對候選人的整體評價。本文發現候選人形象確實與情感溫度計有密切關係，不過選民對陳水扁之形象對陳水扁情感溫度計的影響大於連戰形象對連戰感情溫度計之影響。政黨喜好程度對於情感溫度計也有相當程度之影響，特別是對連戰情感溫度計之影響。不過，不管是候選人形象或政黨喜好程度對兩位候選人情感溫度計的解釋力都不如對候選人未來四年主導國家發展放心的程度。對陳水扁放心程度越高者，對他的情感分數越高，同樣的，對連戰主政放心程度高對他的情感溫度計也較高。根據美國學者之研究，若選民對候選人情感溫度計能分出高下的話，幾乎可以說決定了選民之投票抉擇，然而在台灣情感溫度計雖然對選民之投票行為有顯著影響，其影響力不如美國，也不如政黨喜好程度變數。政黨喜好程度一方面影響選民對候選人之情感溫度計，另一方面又對選民投票抉擇有獨立之影響。
Presidential election is the selection of the national leader. The 2004 presidential election had drawn a lot of attention from mass media. The extensive coverage by the mass media tumed the candidates into the most prominent factor in the 2004 presidential election campaign, thus, the voters felt obligated to take the candidates' qualifications and personalities into consideration in their voting decisions. Candidate image or candidate personality centers on competence, likeability, honesty, reliability, and understanding people's needs. Candidate evaluation refers to an overall assessment of the candidates: it is measured by way of "feeling thermometers". This study found that candidate image is an important factor in determining the overall evaluation of the candidate. The impact of candidate image on voter's "feeling thermometer" towards Chen Shui-bian was greater than that of Lien Chan. The study also found that party preferences have a profound impact on the voters' "feeling thermometer," this was especially true in the case of Lien Chan. None the less, the most important factor in determining a candidate's "feeling thermometer" is the prospective evaluation of the candidate's national performance, the next is party preference and then candidate image. For those who think highly of Chen Shui-bian's prospective national performance also have a high "feeling thermometer" towards him, likewise, those who think highly of Chairman LienChan's prospective national performance also have a high "feeling thermometer" towards him. According to research conducted in the United States, if the voter's "feeling thermometer" towards the candidates are different, it can ultimately determine the voters' decision. The study further evaluates if the "feeling thermometers" inftuence people's voting choices. In Taiwan, although the "feeling thermometer" has an effect on people's voting behavior, the inftuence is far weaker when compared to America. Therefore, the voter's "feeling thermometer" is not the most important factor. Party preference, candidate image and incumbent evaluation are all important factors in determining voters' decisions.
期刊論文
1.Kabashima, Ikuo、Imai, Ryosuke(2002)。Evaluation of Party Leaders and Voting Behaviour: an analysis of the 2000 general election。Social Science Japan Journal，5(1)，85-96。  new window
2.Miller, Arthur H.、Wattenberg, Martin P.、Malanchuk, Okasana(1986)。Schematic Assessments of Presidential Candidate。American Political Science Review，80，521-540。  new window
3.Stewart, Marianne C.、Clarke, Harold D.(1992)。The (Un)Importance of Party Leaders: Leader Images and Party Choice in the 1987 British Election。Journal of Politics，54(2)，447-470。  new window
4.Hastie, Reid、Park, Bernadette(1986)。The Relationship between Memory and Judgment Depends on Whether the Task Is Memory-Based or On-line。Psychological Review，93(3)，258-268。  new window
5.Brody, Richard A.、Page, Benjamin J.(1973)。Indifference, Alienation and Rational Decisions: The Effects of Candidate Evaluations on Turnout and the Vote。Public Choice，15(1)，1-17。  new window
6.陳世敏(19920900)。候選人形象與選民投票行為。新聞學研究，46，149-168。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.劉念夏(19961100)。一九九六年總統大選選舉預測：民意調查中未表態選民投票行為規則假設的提出與驗證。選舉研究，3(2)，131-155。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Kelley, Stanley Jr.、Mirer, Thad W.(1974)。The simple act of voting。American Political Science Review，68(2)，572-591。  new window
9.Markus, Gregory B.、Converse, Philip E.(19791200)。A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice。The American Political Science Review，73，1055-1070。  new window
10.Page, Benjamin I.、Jones, Calvin C.(1979)。Reciprocal Effects of Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties and the Vote。American Political Science Review，73(4)，1071-1089。  new window
11.盛治仁(20001100)。總統選舉預測探討--以情感溫度計預測未表態選民的應用。選舉研究，7(2)，75-107。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.鄭夙芬、陳陸輝、劉嘉薇(20050600)。2004年總統選舉中的候選人因素。臺灣民主季刊，2(2)，31-70。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.黃秀端(19960500)。決定勝負的關鍵:候選人特質與能力在總統選舉中的重要性。選舉研究，3(1)，103-135。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.梁世武(19941100)。一九九四年臺北市長選舉之預測:「候選人形象指標」預測模式之驗證。選舉研究，1(2)，97-129。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Lodge, Milton、McGraw, Kathleen M.、Stroh, Patrick(1989)。An Impression-Driven Model of Candidate Evaluation。American Political Science Review，83(2)，399-419。  new window
16.胡佛、游盈隆(19831200)。選民的投票取向：結構與類型的分析。政治學報，11，頁225-279。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.Weisberg, Herbert F.、Rusk, Jerrold G.(1970)。Dimensions of Candidate Evaluation。American Political Science Review，64(4)，1167-1185。  new window
18.Lodge, M.、Steenbergen, M. R.、Brau, S.、Lodge, Milton、Steenbergen, Marco R.、Brau, Shawn(1995)。The Responsive Voter: Campaign Information and the Dynamics of Candidate Evaluation。American Political Science Review，89(2)，309-326。  new window
19.Bean, Clive(1993)。The Electoral Influence of Party Leader Images in Australia and New Zealand。Comparative Political Studies，26(1)，111-132。  new window
20.Bean, Clive、Mughan, Anthony(1989)。Leadership Effects in Parliamentary Elections in Australia and Britain。American Political Science Review，83(4)，1165-1179。  new window
21.Erikson, Robert S.、Romero, David W.(1990)。Candidate Equilibrium and the Behavioral Model of the Vote。American Political Science Review，84(4)，1103-1126。  new window
22.Funk, Carolyn L.(1997)。Implications of Political Expertise in Candidate Trait Evaluations。Political Research Quarterly，50(3)，657-697。  new window
23.Mondak, Jeffery J.、McCurley, Carl(1995)。Inspected by #118406113: The Influence of Incumbents Competence and Integrity in U.S. House Elections。American Journal of Political Science，39(4)，864-885。  new window
24.Miller, Arthur H.(1990)。Public Judgments of Senate and House Candidates。Legislative Studies Quarterly，15(4)，525-542。  new window
25.Mondak, Jeffrey J.(1995)。Competence, Integrity, and the Electoral Success of Congressional Incumbents。Journal of Politics，57(4)，1043-1069。  new window
26.Rahn, Wendy M.、Aldrich, John H.、Borgida, Eugene(1994)。Individual and Contextual Variations in Political Candidate Appraisal。American Political Science Review，88(1)，193-199。  new window
27.Wattenberg, Martin P.(2004)。Elections: Personal Popularity in U.S. Presidential Elections。Presidential Studies Quarterly，34(1)，143-155。  new window
28.Whitely, Paul F.(1988)。The Causal Relationships between Issues, Candidate Evaluations, Party Identification, and Vote Choice - The View From "Rolling Thunder"。Journal of Politics，50(4)，961-984。  new window
會議論文
1.胡佛(1994)。選舉與政治轉型。臺北：臺大政研所政治體系與變遷研究工作室。  延伸查詢new window
2.徐火炎(1996)。Reasoning and Choice in Taiwan's Gubernatorial Election。Hong Kong。  new window
研究報告
1.陳義彥、鄭夙芬(1993)。選舉行為與臺灣地區的政治民主化 : 從第二屆立法委員選舉探討。臺北：國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
2.黃秀端(2005)。2002年至2004年「選舉與民主化調查」三年期研究規劃 (III) : 民國九十三年總統大選民調案 (計畫編號：NSC92-2420-H031-004)。臺北市：行政院國家科學委員會。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.張一彬(1998)。候選人評價與投票行為：台灣一九九六年總統選舉之研究(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.傅明穎(1996)。北市選民的候選人評價與投票決定：以民國八十三年臺北市長選舉為例(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Graber, Doris A.(1988)。Mass Media and American Politics。Washington, DC：Congressional Quarterly Press。  new window
2.Nie, Norman H.、Verba, Sidney、Petrocik, John R.(1976)。The Changing American Voter。Harvard University Press。  new window
3.Wattenberg, Martin P.(1991)。The Rise of Candidate Centered Politics: Presidential Elections of the 1980s。Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press。  new window
4.Fiorina, Morris P.(1981)。Retrospective Voting in American National Elections。Yale University Press。  new window
5.Popkin, Samuel L.(1991)。The Reasoning Voter: communication and persuasion in presidential campaigns。Chicago, IL。  new window
6.Page, Benjamin I.(1978)。Choices and Echoes in Presidential Elections。Chicago：University of Chicago Press。  new window
7.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
8.Asher, Herbert B.(1988)。Presidential Elections and American Politics: Voters, Candidates, and Campaigns Since 1952。Presidential Elections and American Politics: Voters, Candidates, and Campaigns Since 1952。Belmont, CA。  new window
9.Rosenberg, Seymour、Sedlak, Andrea(1972)。Structural Representations of Implicit Personality Theory。Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 6。New York, NY。  new window
10.Cord, Robert L.、Roskin, Michael、Medeiros, James A.、Jones, Walter S.(2003)。Political Science: An Introduction。Political Science: An Introduction。New Jersey。  new window
圖書論文
1.Kinder, Donald R.(1986)。Presidential Character Revisited。Political Cognitions。Hillsdale, N. J.：Lawrence Erlbaum Press。  new window
2.Lau, Richard R.(1986)。Political Schemata, Candidate Evaluations and Voting Behavior。Politica Cogniton。Hillsdale, NJ：Eribaum。  new window
3.Kinder, Donald R.、Sears, David O.(1985)。Public Opinion and Political Action。The Handbook of Social Psychology。Addison-Wesley Publishing Company。  new window
4.Converse, Philip E.(1964)。The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics。Ideology and Discontent。Free Press。  new window
5.Rahn, Wendy M.、Aldrich, John H.、Borgida, Eugene、Sullivan, John L.(1990)。A Social-Cognitive Model of Candidate Appraisal。Information and Democratic Process。Urbana, IL：University of Illinois Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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