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題名：分立政府與經濟表現：1992年至2006年臺灣經驗的分析
書刊名：臺灣政治學刊
作者：吳重禮 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wu, Chung-li
出版日期：2007
卷期：11:2
頁次：頁53-91
主題關鍵詞：分立政府；經濟表現；政黨政治；政府體制；時間序列分析；Divided government；Economic performance；Party politics；Government system；Time series analysis
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(8) 博士論文(0) 專書(2) 專書論文(1)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:6
  • 共同引用共同引用:90
  • 點閱點閱:86
2000年總統大選民進黨贏得勝選，取得中央政府執政權，我國中央層級政權首次進行政黨輪替，並產生「分立政府」(divided government)的體制型態。關於分立政府是否有礙於國家總體經濟表現，迄今仍是學界爭議的焦點。本研究以我國中央政府為分析對象，比較1992年至2000年國民黨執政的「一致政府」(unified government)時期，與2000年至2006年民進黨掌握行政權的分立政府時期，整體經濟表現是否具有顯著差異。變數檢定與實證結果顯示，政府體制、實質政府支出，以及銀行利率等變數，對於國民生產毛額的變動具有顯著影響。就政府體制的影響來說，本文推論，在一致政府時期，政府整體施政較為順暢，因此促使國家經濟表現較佳；反之，在分立政府時期，由於府會僵局和政策滯塞，造成政府整體施政困境，使得經濟表現將受到負面影響。在結論中，本文摘述實證分析要點，並提出研究限制與未來研究方向。
The Democratic Progressive Party won the 2000 presidential election in Taiwan and acquired the ruling power over the central government, while the Kuomintang still controlled maintained a majority in the Legislative Yuan. When there is divided government, since different political parties control the executive and legislative branches, the operation of party government is weakened, as the two political institutions are in conflict with each other. This certainly makes responsible and efficient government an unattainable goal. However, the question concerning the consequence of divided government-does the national economy have poorer performance under divided government?-remains contentious. This study examines the differences in macroeconomic performance between the 1992-2000 unified government and the 2000-2006 divided government by estimating the impacts of the political and economic determinants on Taiwan's gross national product (GNP). The findings indicate that the variables of the government system, government expenditures, and interest rates have significant effects on Taiwan's GNP. The evidence confirms the assumption that distinct forms of government can influence the efficiency of governance, i.e., divided government tends to result in policy gridlock and political stalemate between the executive and legislative branches and consequently this is likely to negatively affect macroeconomic performance, and vice versa. In concluding, the key findings are reviewed, the limitations of this study are outlined and suggestions are provided for future research.
期刊論文
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2.Alesina, A.(1987)。Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game。The Quarterly Journal of Economics，102(3)，651-678。  new window
3.王鼎銘、詹富堯(20061200)。臺灣地方財政的政治景氣循環分析：固定效果與隨機效果模型的估算比較。臺灣政治學刊，10(2)，63-100。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.吳重禮(19990900)。美國聯邦政府老人行政署的功能及其執行支出之影響因素評析。美歐季刊，13(3)=135，261-285。  延伸查詢new window
5.Alesina, Alberto、Drazen, Allan(1991)。Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?。American Economic Review，81(5)，1170-1188。  new window
6.Alesina, Alberto、Rosenthal, Howard(1989)。Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy。American Political Science Review，83(2)，373-398。  new window
7.Alesina, Alberto、Londregan, John、Rosenthal, Howard(1993)。A Model of the Political Economy of the United States。American Political Science Review，87(1)，12-33。  new window
8.Hardin, Charles M.(1989)。A Challenge to Political Science。PS: Political Science and Politics，22(3)，595-600。  new window
9.Jones, David R.、McDermott, Monika L.(2004)。The Responsible Party Government Model in House and Senate Elections。American Journal of Political Science，48(1)，1-12。  new window
10.Karol, David(2000)。Divided Government and U.S. Trade Policy: Much Ado About Nothing?。International Organization，54(4)，825-844。  new window
11.Norpoth, Helmut(2001)。Divided Government and Economic Voting。Journal of Politics，63(2)，414-435。  new window
12.Sundquist, James L.(1980)。The Crisis of Competence in Our National Government。Political Science Quarterly，95(2)，183-208。  new window
13.Weatherford, M. Stephen(1994)。Responsiveness and Deliberation in Divided Government: Presidential Leadership in Tax Policy Making。British Journal of Political Science，24(1)，1-31。  new window
14.Cutler, Lloyd N.(1989)。Now Is Time for All Good Men...。William and Mary Law Review，30(2)，387-402。  new window
15.傅彥凱(20020600)。民主政治下的經濟政策制定--政治景氣循環理論之分析。中國行政評論，11(3)，139-163。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.吳重禮、黃紀(200711)。Divided Government in Taiwan's Local Politics: Public Evaluations of City/County Government Performance。Party Politics，13(6)，741-760。  new window
17.Alesina, Alberto(1988)。Credibility and Policy Convergence in a Two-Party System with Rational Voters。American Economic Review，78(4)，796-806。  new window
18.Alt, James E.、Lowry, Robert C.(1994)。Divided Government, Fiscal Institutions, and Budget Deficits: Evidence from the States。American Political Science Review，88(4)，811-828。  new window
19.Nordhaus, William D.(1975)。The Political Business Cycle。The Review of Economic Studies，42(2)，169-190。  new window
20.Coleman, John J.(19991200)。Unified Government, Divided Government, and Party Responsiveness。American Political Science Review，93(4)，821-835。  new window
21.Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr.(1977)。Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy。American Political Science Review，71(4)，1467-1487。  new window
22.Sundquist, James L.(1988)。Needed: A Political Theory for the New Era of Coalition Government in the United States。Political Science Quarterly，103(4)，613-635。  new window
23.Leonard, John(1991)。Divided Government and Dysfunctional Politics。PS: Political Science and Politics，24(4)，651-653。  new window
24.Cutler, Lloyd N.(1988)。Some Reflections about Divided Government。Presidential Studies Quarterly，18(3)，485-492。  new window
25.Cutler, Lloyd N.(1980)。To Form a Government: On the Defects of Separation of Powers。Foreign Affairs，59(1)，126-143。  new window
26.吳重禮、黃紀、張壹智(20030300)。臺灣地區「分立政府」與「一致政府」之研究：以1986年至2001年地方府會關係為例。人文及社會科學集刊，15(1)，145-184。new window  延伸查詢new window
27.Johansen, S.(1991)。Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Model。Econometrica，59(6)，1551-1580。  new window
28.Granger, C. W. J.(1981)。Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification。Journal of Econometrics，16(1)，121-130。  new window
29.Granger, Clive W. J.(1969)。Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society，37(3)，424-438。  new window
30.Johansen, Søren(1988)。Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control，12(2/3)，231-254。  new window
31.Johansen, Søren、Juselius, Katarina(1990)。Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: with Applications to the Demand for Money。Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics，52(2)，169-210。  new window
32.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica，55(2)，251-276。  new window
33.吳重禮(20020600)。美國「分立政府」運作的爭議：以公共行政與政策為例。歐美研究，32(2)，271-316。new window  延伸查詢new window
34.吳重禮(20060500)。憲政設計、政黨政治與權力分立：美國分立政府的運作經驗及其啟示。問題與研究，45(3)，133-166。new window  延伸查詢new window
35.傅彥凱(20060500)。地方政府預算制定之政治經濟分析：政治預算循環的觀點。選舉研究，13(1)，119-162。new window  延伸查詢new window
36.Phillips, Peter C. B.、Perron, Pierre(1988)。Testing for a unit root in time series regression。Biometrika，75(2)，335-346。  new window
37.Said, S. E.、Dickey, David A.(1984)。Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order。Biometrika，71(3)，599-607。  new window
38.Barro, Robert J.(1990)。Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth。Journal of Political Economy，98(5)，S103-S125。  new window
39.許振明(1991)。公共支出與經濟成長。自由中國之工業，75(5)，5-33。  延伸查詢new window
40.邱依忠(1979)。我國財政收支乘數分析。臺灣經濟金融月刊，15(1)，23-39。  延伸查詢new window
41.林慶宏(1998)。政府支出變動及其融通方式對總體經濟之影響。國立中山大學社會科學季刊，1(4)，121-160。  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.朱敬一、鄭保志(2005)。租稅在所得分配上扮演之角色。「稅制改革的公與義」研討會，時報文教基金會主辦 (會議日期: 2005/09/17)。余紀忠文教基金會。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Fiorina, Morris(1996)。Divided Government。New York：Macmillan。  new window
2.趙捷謙(1984)。經濟學要義。臺北：五南圖書。  延伸查詢new window
3.Hardin, Charles M.(1989)。Constitutional Reform in America。Ames, IA：Iowa State University Press。  new window
4.Key, V. O.(1964)。Politics, Parties and Pressure Groups。New York：Thomas Y. Crowell Co.。  new window
5.Van Assendelft, Laura A.(1997)。Governors, Agenda Setting, and Divided Government。New York：University Press of America。  new window
6.Keynes, John Maynard(1963)。General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money。New York, NY：Harcourt, Brace and World。  new window
7.Hibbs, D. A.(1987)。The American Political Economy。Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press。  new window
8.Alesina, Alberto、Rosenthal, Howard(1995)。Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy。New York：Cambridge University Press。  new window
9.Mayhew, David R.(1991)。Divided We Govern: Party Control, Lawmaking, and Investigations, 1946-1990。New Haven：Yale University Press。  new window
10.Sundquist, James L.(1986)。Constitutional Reform and Effective Government。Washington, D.C.：Brookings Institution。  new window
11.Tufte, Edward R.(1978)。Political Control of the Economy。Princeton, N. J.：Princeton University Press。  new window
12.Ripley, Randall B.、Franklin, Grace A.(1991)。Congress, the Bureaucracy and Public Policy。Brooks/Cole Publishing Co.。  new window
13.Ripley, Randall B.(1983)。Congress: Process and Policy。New York：W. W. Norton。  new window
14.Peterson, M. A.、Peterson, Mark A.(1990)。Legislating together: The White House and Capitol Hill from Eisenhower and Reagan。Legislating together: The White House and Capitol Hill from Eisenhower and Reagan。Cambridge, MA。  new window
15.(1991)。Politics and Economics in the Eighties。Politics and Economics in the Eighties。Chicago, IL。  new window
圖書論文
1.McCubbins, Mathew D.(1991)。Government on Lay Away: Federal Spending and Deficits Under Divided Party Control。The Politics of Divided Government。Boulder, CO.：Westview Press。  new window
2.Stewart, Charles H.(1991)。Lessons from the Post-Civil War Era。The Politics of Divided Government。Boulder, CO：Westview Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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