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題名：成本效益、公民責任與政治參與：2004年公民投票的分析
書刊名：東吳政治學報
作者：王鼎銘 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wang, Ding-ming
出版日期：2007
卷期：25:1
頁次：頁1-37
主題關鍵詞：公民投票；投票計算理論；極小化最大後悔理論；多項式常機模型；Referendum；The calculus of voting；Minimax regret；Multinomial probit
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(10) 博士論文(3) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:9
  • 共同引用共同引用:61
  • 點閱點閱:58
本文根據投票計算理論（the calculus of voting），以2004年第一次施行的公投選舉為背景，探究選民的選票機率、效用落差、投票成本、及公民責任感等投票計算變項，究竟對他們的公投行為產生多大的影響。根據多項式常機模型（Multinomial Probit, MNP）的估算結果，本文最重要的是發現台灣選民的公民責任意識與民主價值理念並未對參與公投產生作用。也就是說公民責任感越強者，並不必然較積極參與三二○公投表達意見。尤甚者，與公民意識高度連結的教育程度與參與公投呈現負相關，也就是教育程度越高的選民，越不會去投票所正式或非正式的表達他們的看法，他們寧願選擇待在家中不去投票。總括來說，本文發現公民投票所應代表直接民主與公民教育的意義，在首次舉辦的公投選舉中並未彰顯出來。
This paper, based on Riker and Ordeshook’s calculus of voting theory, explores the first referendum, which took place in 2004. Variables such as probability, utility differential, cost, civic duty are considered to detect their influence on voting behavior. Most surprisingly, the result of Multinomial Probit analysis shows that voters’ civic duty or democratic values did not improve the incentives of participation. Moreover, it is found education level was negatively correlated with the turnout, meaning intellectuals were more unlikely to participate in the referendum. Except for the influence of civic duty and education, the other voting calculus variables (such as probability, utility differential, and cost) basically matched the research hypothesis. In addition, this paper also found that party identification had a very important impact on voters’ decisions in the referendum. Pan-green voters were very likely to participate in the referendum, and they preferred to stay home and abstain from both presidential and referendum elections rather than to cast invalid ballots. Pan-blue voters, on the contrary, were unlikely to participate, and those who did were likely to intentionally cast invalid ballots.
期刊論文
1.Beck, Nathaniel(1975)。The Paradox of Minimax Regret。American Political Science Review，69(3)，918。  new window
2.Ferejohn, John A.、Fiorina, Morris P.(1975)。Closeness Counts Only in Horseshoes and Dancing。American Political Science Review，69，920-925。  new window
3.Uhlaner, Carole Jean(1989)。Rational Turnout: The Neglected Role of Groups。American Journal of Political Science，33，390-422。  new window
4.Strom, Gerald S.(1975)。On the Apparent Paradox of Participation: A New Proposal。The American Political Science Review，69(3)，908-913。  new window
5.Ferejohn, John A.、Fiorina, Morris P.(1974)。The Paradox of Not Voting: A Decision Theoretic Analysis。American Political Science Review，68(2)，525-536。  new window
6.Whiteley, Paul F.(1995)。Rational Choice and Political Participation: Evaluating the Debate。Political Research Quarterly，48(1)，211-233。  new window
7.徐永明、蔡佳泓、黃綉庭(20050300)。公民投票--臺灣國家認同的新動力。臺灣民主季刊，2(1)，51-74。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Aldrich, John H.(1993)。Rational Choice and Turnout。American Journal of Political Science，37(1)，246-278。  new window
9.徐永明(20040600)。公投民主與代議民主的關係--以臺灣經驗為例。臺灣民主，1(2)，1-26。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Riker, William H.、Ordeshook, Peter C.(1968)。A Theory of the Calculus of Voting。American Political Science Review，62(1)，25-42。  new window
11.陳志瑋(20040600)。三二○公投與臺灣政治發展分析。臺灣民主，1(2)，43-72。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Conover, Pamela(1991)。The Nature of Citizenship in the United States and Great Britain: Empirical Comments on Theoretical Themes。Journal of Politics，53，800-832。  new window
13.黃偉峰(20040900)。從選票區位結構試探影響2004年「和平公投」之相關因素。臺灣民主，1(3)，73-98。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.吳俊德、陳永福(20051200)。投票與不投票的抉擇--2004年總統大選與公民投票的探索性研究。臺灣民主季刊，2(4)，67-98。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.游清鑫(20040600)。2004年臺灣總統選舉--政治信任的缺乏與未鞏固的民主。臺灣民主季刊，1(2)，193-200。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.黃紀(20040900)。Explaining Referendum Voting Choices in Taiwan。Issues & Studies，40(3/4)，316-333。new window  new window
17.Barzel, Yoram、Silberberg, Eugene(1973)。Is the Act of Voting Rational?。Public Choice，16，51-58。  new window
18.Kenney, P. J.、Rice, T. W.(1989)。An Empirical Examination of the Minimax Hypothesis。American Politics Quarterly，17，153-162。  new window
19.Leighley, Jan E.(1995)。Attitudes, Opportunities and Incentives: A Field Essay on Political Participation。Political Research Quarterly，48(1)，181-209。  new window
20.Theiss-Morse, Elizabeth(1993)。Conceptualizations of Good Citizenship and Political Participation。Political Behavior，15(4)，355-380。  new window
21.Blais, Andre(1995)。Do People Vote on the Basis of Minimax Regret?。Political Science Quarterly，48，827-836。  new window
22.Morton, Rebecca(1991)。Groups in Rational Turnout Models。American Journal of Political Science，35，758-776。  new window
23.Knoke, David(1988)。Incentives in Collective Action Organizations。American Sociological Review，81，557-561。  new window
24.Mayer, Lawrence、Good, I. J.(1975)。Is Minimax Regret Applicable to Voting Decision?。American Political Science Review，69，916-917。  new window
25.Alvarez, R. Michael(2000)。Issues, Economics, and Dynamics of Multiparty Elections: The British 1987 General Election。American Political Science Review，94(1)，131-150。  new window
26.Sanders, Elizabeth(1980)。On the Cost, Utilities and Simple Joys of Voting。The Journal of Politics，42，854-863。  new window
27.Uhlaner, Carole Jean(1986)。Political Participation, Rational Actors, and Rationality: A New Approach。Political Psychology，39，551-573。  new window
28.Settle, Russell、Abrams, Buron(1976)。The Determinants of Voter Participation: A More General Model。Public Choice，27，81-89。  new window
29.Stephens, Stephen V.(1975)。The Paradox of Not Voting: Comment。American Political Science Review，69，914-915。  new window
30.Silberman, Jonathan、Durden, Gary(1975)。The Rational Behavior Theory of Voter Participation: The Evidence from Congressional Elections。Public Choice，23，101-108。  new window
31.Lane, Robert(1965)。The Tense Citizen and the Causal Patriot: Role Confusion in American Politics。The Journal of Politics，27，735-760。  new window
32.Alvarez, R. Michael、Nagler, Jonathan(1998)。When Politics and Models Collide: Estimating Models of Multiparty Elections。American Journal of Political Science，42，55-96。  new window
研究報告
1.章英華、傅仰止(2005)。台灣社會變遷基本調查計畫：第四期第五次調查計畫執行報告 (計畫編號：NSC 93-2420-H-001-002-B1)。臺北：中央研究院社會學研究所。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Barry, Brian M.(1970)。Sociologists, Economists, and Democracy。London：Collier-MacMillan Ltd.。  new window
2.Green, Donald P.、Shapiro, Ian(1994)。Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory: A Critique of Applications in Political Science。Yale University Press。  new window
3.Thompson, Dennis(1970)。The Democratic Citizen。Cambridge：Cambridge University Press。  new window
4.Almond, Gabriel A.、Verba, Sidney(1963)。The Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations。Princeton, New Jersey：Princeton University Press。  new window
5.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York：Harper and Row。  new window
6.Dahl, Robert(1956)。Preface to Democratic Theory。Preface to Democratic Theory。Chicago, IL。  new window
7.Shaffer, William(1972)。Computer Simulation of Voting Behavior。Computer Simulation of Voting Behavior。New York, NY。  new window
8.Train, K.(2003)。Discrete Choice Method with Simulation。Discrete Choice Method with Simulation。Cambridge, UK/ New York, NY。  new window
9.Dennis, Jack(1991)。Theories of Turnout: An Empirical Comparison of Alienationist and Rationalist Perspectives。Political Participation and American Democracy。New York, NY。  new window
10.Vincenzo Uleri, Pier(1996)。Italy: Referendum and Initiatives from the Origins to the Crisis to a Democratic Regime。The Referendum Experience in Europe。0。  new window
其他
1.中央選舉委員會(2005)。全國性公民投票結果概況表2004年，0。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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