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題名:「中國因素」或是「公民不服從」?從定群追蹤樣本探討太陽花學運之民意
書刊名:人文及社會科學集刊
作者:蔡佳泓陳陸輝 引用關係
作者(外文):Tsai, Chia-hungChen, Lu-huei
出版日期:2015
卷期:27:4
頁次:頁573-603
主題關鍵詞:太陽花運動公民不服從中國因素定群追蹤樣本Sunflower movementCivic disobedienceChina factorPanel data
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(16) 博士論文(0) 專書(2) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:14
  • 共同引用共同引用:171
  • 點閱點閱:217
2014年三月發生的太陽花學運,史無前例地阻擋可能通過的貿易協定,對於臺灣政治造成非常大的影響。如何解釋民眾支持此一由各種因素交雜的社會運動是一大挑戰。本研究擬先回顧政治參與的理論,然後討論與此次政治參與特別相關的「公民不服從」以及「中國因素」,並且建立多變量模型。為了避免政治態度的內因性,本研究使用網路民調所收集到的定群追蹤樣本。主要發現是納入公民不服從、中國因素並且控制藍綠認同後,中國因素是支持太陽花學運與否的主要因素。本研究發現或許可以推論臺灣公民社會的發展,以及對於非傳統政治參與的研究有所貢獻。
The Sunflower Movement broke out on March 18, 2014 in the Legislative Yuan, and lasted until April 10th. It marked the first time that a protest stopped a trade agreement that would have been passed by the legislature. It is also challenging to explain this movement, which involved many factors. This study, first, reviews theories of political participation and then examines the concept of civic consciousness and the China factor. We propose a multivariate model with these political predispositions. In order to address the endogeneity problem, we use panel data collected by internet surveys. The major finding is that the China factor is vital, after controlling for civil disobedience and self-identification with Pan-blue and Pan-green. This research makes a forecast on the development of civil society, and contributes to studies of non-conventional political participation.
期刊論文
1.莊文忠(20100600)。臺灣民眾公民意識的變化:2008年政權二次輪替前後的比較分析。人文及社會科學集刊,22(2),201-246。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Muller, Edward N.、Opp, Karl-Dieter(1986)。Rational Choice and Rebellious Collective Action。The American Political Science Review,80(2),471-488。  new window
3.郭秋永(19921100)。政治參與的意義:方法論上的分析。人文及社會科學集刊,5(1),173-211。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.陳光輝(20100600)。臺灣民眾的公民意識、藍綠政治支持與公民投票態度之關聯性。人文及社會科學集刊,22(2),247-274。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Sanders, David、Clarke, Harold D.、Stewart, Marianne C.、Whiteley, Paul(2007)。Does Mode Matter for Modeling Political Choice? Evidence from the 2005 British Election Study。Political Analysis,15(3),257-285。  new window
6.Wass, Hanna(2007)。Generations and Socialization into Electoral Participation in Finland。Scandinavian Political Studies,30(1),1-19。  new window
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8.黃紀、王宏忠、林長志(20120600)。Knowledge of the Electoral System and Voter Turnout。臺灣政治學刊,16(1),239-279。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.湯晏甄(20130900)。「兩岸關係因素」真的影響了2012年的臺灣總統大選嗎?。臺灣民主季刊,10(3),91-130。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.劉嘉薇、黃紀(20120900)。父母政黨偏好組合對大學生政黨偏好之影響--定群追蹤之研究。臺灣民主季刊,9(3),37-84。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.王靖興、王德育(20070600)。臺灣民眾的政治參與對其政治功效意識之影響:以2004年總統選舉為例。臺灣政治學刊,11(1),69-107。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.蒙志成(20140500)。「92共識」對2012年臺灣總統大選的議題效果:「傾向分數配對法」的應用與實證估算。選舉研究,21(1),1-45。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.吳重禮、鄭文智、崔曉倩(20061200)。交叉網絡與政治參與:2001年縣市長與立法委員選舉的實證研究。人文及社會科學集刊,18(4),599-638。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.王鼎銘(20070300)。成本效益、公民責任與政治參與:2004年公民投票的分析。東吳政治學報,25(1),1-37。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.吳重禮、崔曉倩(20101200)。族群、賦權與選舉評價--2004年與2008年總統選舉省籍差異的實證分析。臺灣民主季刊,7(4),137-182。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.張傳賢、黃紀(20110600)。政黨競爭與臺灣族群認同與國家認同間的聯結。臺灣政治學刊,15(1),3-71。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.Putnam, Robert D.(1995)。Tuning in, Tuning out: The Strange Disappearance of Social Capital in America。Political Science and Politics,28(4),664-683。  new window
18.Page, Benjamin I.、Jones, Calvin C.(1979)。Reciprocal Effects of Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties and the Vote。American Political Science Review,73(4),1071-1089。  new window
19.Brady, Henry E.、Verba, Sidney、Schlozman, Kay Lehman(1995)。Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Participation。The American Political Science Review,89(2),271-294。  new window
20.陳陸輝、陳映男、王信賢(20120900)。經濟利益與符號態度:解析臺灣認同的動力。東吳政治學報,30(3),1-50。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.吳重禮(20080600)。政黨偏好、制衡認知與分裂投票--2006年北高市長暨議員選舉的實證分析。臺灣民主季刊,5(2),27-58。new window  延伸查詢new window
22.蔡佳泓、王鼎銘、Tossutti, Livianna S.(20081200)。Between Independence and Unification: An Ordered Probit Analysis of Panel Survey Data on Taiwan's Constitutional Future。Issues & Studies,44(4),71-98。new window  new window
23.楊婉瑩(20071100)。政治參與的性別差異。選舉研究,14(2),53-94。new window  延伸查詢new window
24.崔曉倩、吳重禮(20111000)。年齡與選舉參與:2008年總統選舉的實證分析。調查研究:方法與應用,26,7-44。new window  延伸查詢new window
25.何明修(2013)。公民運動與公民不服從--兩條晚近台灣社會運動的路線。新社會政策雙月刊,30,19-22。  延伸查詢new window
26.謝世民(20140500)。公民不服從。思想,25,1-24。new window  延伸查詢new window
27.Eisinger, P. K.(1973)。The Conditions of Protest Behavior in American Cities。American Political Science Review,67(1),11-28。  new window
28.Albert, James H.、Chib, Siddhartha(1993)。Bayesian Analysis of Binary and Polychotomous Response Data。Journal of American Statistical Association,88(422),669-679。  new window
會議論文
1.徐火炎(2006)。台灣的公民權:經驗內涵的初探。公民權--台灣社會之變遷基本調查第八次研討會,中央研究院政治學研究所籌備處、社會學研究所 (會議日期: 20060526)。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Miller, W. L.(1977)。Electoral Dynamics in Britain since 1918。London:Macmillan。  new window
2.Franklin, Mark N.(2004)。Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945。Cambridge University Press。  new window
3.臺灣守護民主平台(2015)。思想翻牆與知識接力。臺北:臺灣守護民主平台。  延伸查詢new window
4.Dalton, Russell J.(2006)。Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies。Congressional Quarterly Press。  new window
5.Verba, Sidney、Nie, Norman H.(1972)。Participation in America。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
6.Wattenberg, Martin(2007)。Is Voting for Young People? With a Postscript on Citizen Engagement。New York:Pearson Longman。  new window
7.Blais, André(2000)。To Vote or Not to Vote: The Merits and Limits of Rational Choice Theory。University of Pittsburgh Press。  new window
8.Berelson, Bernard R.、Lazarsfeld, Paul F.、McPhee, William(1954)。The Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign。Chicago, IL:University of Chicago Press。  new window
9.Conway, Margaret M.(1991)。Political Participation in the United States。Washington, DC:Congressional Quarterly。  new window
10.Lazarsfeld, Paul F.、Berelson, Bernard、Gaudet, Hazel(1968)。The People's Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign。New York, NY。  new window
11.黃紀、王德育(2012)。質變數與受限依變數的迴歸分析。五南圖書出版股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
12.Rosenstone, Steven J.、Hansen, John Mark(1993)。Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America。Longman。  new window
13.Verba, Sidney、Nie, Norman H.、Kim, Jae-on(1978)。Participation and Political Equality: A Seven-Nation Comparison。Cambridge。  new window
14.Aldrich, John H.、Nelson, Forrest D.(1984)。Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models。Sage Publications。  new window
15.Gurr, Ted Robert(1970)。Why Men Rebel。Princeton, New Jersey:Princeton University Press。  new window
16.Inglehart, Ronald(1990)。Culture Shift in Advanced industrial Society。Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press。  new window
17.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York:Harper and Row。  new window
18.Verba, Sidney、Schlozman, Kay Lehman、Brady, Henry E.(1995)。Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics。Harvard University Press。  new window
19.Olson, Mancur Jr.(1971)。The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups。Harvard University Press。  new window
20.Putnam, Robert D.(2000)。Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community。Simon & Schuster。  new window
21.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stokes, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voter。The University of Chicago Press。  new window
22.Campbell, Angus、Gurin, Gerald、Miller, Warren E.(1954)。The Voter Decides。Westport, Connecticut:Evanston, IL:Greenwood Press:Row, Peterson & Company。  new window
其他
1.(2013)。薪資倒退不容政府文飾卸責,http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20131011000727–260109。  延伸查詢new window
2.中華民國行政院大陸委員會(2014)。民眾認知大陸政府對我不友善態度,http://www.mac.gov.tw/public/Attachment/47281045490.gif, 2015/04/20。  延伸查詢new window
3.李允傑(2014)。太陽花學運後的省思與下一步,http://www.tcf.tw/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5303:20140523lee&catid=80:public&Itemid=587, 2015/04/16。  new window
4.蔡佳泓,俞振華(2014)。政治大學選舉研究中心網路調查資料庫,臺北:政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.(20140419)。「公民不服從」不等於脫序合法化。  延伸查詢new window
6.Albert, James H.(2013)。Probit.regression. R,http://bayes.bgsu.edu/bcwr/notebooks2013/probit.regression.html, 2014/11/19。  new window
圖書論文
1.Carmines, Edward G.、Huckfeldt, Robert(1996)。Political Behavior: An Overview。A New Handbook of Political Science。New York:Oxford University Press。  new window
2.盛杏湲、鄭夙芬(20090000)。台灣民眾的藍綠認同與紅衫軍運動的參與 : 一個框架結盟的解釋。公民與政治行動 : 實證與規範之間的對話。臺北:中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.劉義周、田芳華(20090000)。教育與公民意識 : 以反貪腐倒扁運動與保衛本土挺扁運動為例。公民與政治行動 : 實證與規範之間的對話。臺北:中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.陳陸輝(20090000)。信任、效能與行動:解析民眾為何支持紅衫軍或挺扁運動。公民與政治行動:實證與規範之間的對話。臺北:中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Adams, James Luther(1970)。Civil Disobedience: Its Occasions and Limits。Political and Legal Obligation。New York:Transaction Publishers。  new window
6.Blais, André(2010)。Political Participation。Comparing Democracies 3: Elections and Voting in the 21st Century。Thousand Oaks, CA:Sage Publications Ltd.。  new window
7.Dalton, Russell J.、Klingemann, Hans-Dieter(2007)。Citizens and Political Behavior。The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior。New York:Oxford University Press。  new window
8.Kaase, Max(2007)。Perspectives on Political Participation。The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior。New York:Oxford University Press。  new window
9.Rivat, Emmanuel、Stauer, Mathias(2012)。Political Protest。Political Participation in France and Germany。Colchester:ECPR Press。  new window
10.Rucht, Dieter(2007)。The Spread of Protest Politics。The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior。New York:Oxford University Press。  new window
11.郭秋永(20090000)。公民意識 : 實證與規範之間的一個整合研究。公民與政治行動 : 實證與規範之間的對話。臺北:中央研究院人文社會科學研究中心。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Converse, Philip E.(1972)。Change in the American Electorate。The Human Meaning of Social Change。New York, NY:Sage。  new window
 
 
 
 
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