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題名：民調中的從眾效應--以臺中市及雲林縣為例
書刊名：中國行政評論
作者：蘇孔志／簡鈺珒
作者(外文)：Su, Kung-chih／Chien, Yu-chin
出版日期：2019
卷期：25:1
頁次：頁38-66
主題關鍵詞：選戰；民意調查；從眾效應；Permanent campaign；Public opinion poll；Conformity
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:117
  • 點閱點閱:8
1980年代，Sidney Blumenthal從對美國政治運作的觀察，提出「永無止盡選戰」（permanent campaign）的概念，指出美國總統甫上任即開始為連任作準備，刻意藉由民意調查探討選民對政策方向的看法，甚而改變選民對政治議題的看法及對施政的支持，將「選戰」（campaign）意涵納入政府治理的一環。從眾效應的理論認為，民意的操縱或形塑是可能的，但如何觀察和測量？本文以臺中市和雲林縣的施政為例，運用二波定群追蹤的民意調查，將第二波受訪者分為實驗組和控制組，據以觀察主動告知前一波的民調結果是否影響第二波的態度或看法，並比較實驗組和控制組的差異，以探討從眾效應是否發生。根據獨立樣本t檢定的結果顯示，從眾效應並未發生，可能是民眾對於這些特定政策議題已經形成既定的想法，才沒有受到多數意見而改變，也可能是調查當年並非選舉年，因此民眾對於議題的關注度不高，也比較沒有表態的意願。未來需要累積更多的個案觀察，才能更加理解策略性民調發布與從眾效應之間的關連性。
In the 1980, Sidney Blumenthal published the book ＂The Permanent Campaign＂. In this book, Blumenthal described how American politics had changed from old-style patronage and party organization to modern technology polling driven by the computer revolution. By using the public polls, the elected leader can not only find out where the majority stand over the dispute public issues, but also lead the climate of opinion. We hypothesized that respondents would change their choices because of the effect of ＂Conformity.＂ In order to testify the hypothesis, we designed a two-stage panel public opinion poll and divided the respondents into experimental group and control group. As the result shows, the hypothesis is rejected. There are two plausible reasoning. One is that people had framed their attitude toward theses policy issues so that they were not easy to change within the influence of the majority. The other is that this polling year wasn't the campaign year, people didn't pay much attention to these public issues, and neither did they have will to express their opinions. In the future, the more the cases we observed, the more we can learn about the relation between the strategic use of poll and the conformity effect.
期刊論文
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6.Devenow, Andrea、Welch, Ivo(1996)。Rational Herding in Financial Economics。European Economic Review，40(3-5)，603-615。  new window
7.Perloff, R. M.(1993)。The third-person effect: A critical review and synthesis。Media Psychology，1(4)，353-378。  new window
8.Mutz, D. C.(1989)。The influence of perceptions of media influence: Third person effects and public expression of opinions。International Journal of Public Opinion Research，1(1)，3-23。  new window
9.Kennamer, J. D.(1990)。Self-serving biases in perceiving the opinion of others: Implications for the spiral of silence。Communication Research，17(3)，393-404。  new window
10.Davison, W. P.(1983)。The third-person effect in communication。Public Opinion Quarterly，47(1)，1-15。  new window
11.Bearden, W. O.、Rose, R. L.、Teel, J. E.(1994)。Correlates of conformity in the consumption of illicit drugs and alcohol。Journal of Business Research，30(1)，25-31。  new window
12.Simon, H. A.(1972)。Theories of Bounded Rationality。Decision and Organization，1(1)，161-176。  new window
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14.Tenpas, Kathiyn Dunn、McCann, James A.(2007)。Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977-2002。Public Opinion Quarterly，71(3)，349-366。  new window
15.Nadeau, Richard、Cloutier, Edouard、Guay, J. H.(1993)。New Evidence about the Existence of a Bandwagon Effect in the Opinion Formation Process。International Political Science Review，14(2)，203-213。  new window
16.吳秀光(20061200)。北高市長選舉結果與民意調查間的弔詭。臺灣民主季刊，3(4)，165-171。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.Bikhchandani, S.、Hirshleifer, D.、Welch, I.(1992)。A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Customs, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades。Journal of Political Economy，100(5)，992-1026。  new window
18.Peterson, G. W.、Rollins, B. C.、Thomas, D. L.(1985)。Parental Influence and Adolescent Conformity: Compliance and Internalization。Youth & Society，16(4)，397-420。  new window
19.Burnkrant, Robert E.、Cousineau, Alain(1975)。Informational and normative social influence in buyer behavior。Journal of Consumer Research，2(3)，206-215。  new window
20.Banerjee, Abhijit V.(1992)。A simple model of herd behavior。The Quarterly Journal of Economics，107(3)，797-817。  new window
21.翁秀琪(19900100)。民意與大眾傳播研究的結合--諾爾紐曼和她的沈默的螺旋理論。新聞學研究，42，71-101。new window  延伸查詢new window
22.Bearden, William O.、Netemeyer, Richard G.、Teel, Jesse E.(1989)。Measurement of Consumer Susceptibility to Interpersonal Influence。Journal of Consumer Research，15(4)，473-481。  new window
23.Batto, Nathan(20010500)。Geographical Voting Bases and the Stability of Candidates' Voter Coalitions (1989-1998)。選舉研究，8(1)，211-251。new window  new window
24.Deutsch, M.、Gerard, H. B.(1955)。A study of normative and informational social influences upon individual judgment。The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology，51(3)，629-636。  new window
研究報告
1.Bikhchandani, S.、Sharma, S.(2000)。Herd behavior in financial markets: A review。IMF Institute。  new window
圖書
1.Brehm, S. S.、Kassin, S. M.、Fein, S.(2002)。Social Psychology。Houghton Mifflin Company。  new window
2.Cohen, Jeffrey E.(1997)。Presidential Responsiveness and Public Policy-making: The Public and the Policies that Presidents Choose。Ann Arbor, Michigan：The University of Michigan Press。  new window
3.Reeves, Richard(1993)。President Kennedy: Profile of Power。New York, NY：Touchstone。  new window
4.Kingdon, John W.(1995)。Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies。New York, NY：Harper Collins College Publishers。  new window
5.Noelle-Neumann, E.(1984)。The Spiral of Silence。Chicago, IL：University of Chicago Press。  new window
6.Duffy, Michael、Goodgame, Dan(1992)。Marching in Place: The Status Quo Presidency of George Bush。Glenview, IL：Scott, Foresman。  new window
7.陳敦源(20090000)。民主治理：公共行政與民主政治的制度性調和。臺北市：五南圖書出版股份有限公司。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Druckman, James N.、Jacobs, Lawrence R.(2015)。Who Governs? Presidents, Public Opinion, and Manipulation。Chicago, IL：University of Chicago Press。  new window
9.Blumenthal, S.(1982)。The Permanent Campaign。New York：Simon & Schuster Company, Inc。  new window
10.Lenz, G. S.(2012)。Following the Leader? How Voters Respond to Politicians' Policies and Performance。Chicago, IL：University of Chicago Press。  new window
圖書論文
1.Allen, V. L.(1965)。Situational Factors。Advances in Experimental and Social Psychology。New York, NY：Academic Press。  new window
2.Kassarjian, H. H.、Sheffet, M. J.(1981)。Personality and Consumer Behavior: An Update。Perspectives in Consumer Behavior。Glenview, IL：Scott, Foresman。  new window
3.Festinger, L.(1953)。An analysis of compliant behavior。Group Relations at the Crossroads。New York, NY：Harper and Row。  new window
4.Bowman, K.(2000)。Polling to Campaign and to Govern。The Permanent Campaign and Its Future。Washington, DC：AEI Press。  new window
5.Helco, H.(2000)。Campaigning and Governing: A Conspectus。The Permanent Campaign and Its Future。Washington, DC：AEI Press。  new window
6.Marland, A.、Lennox, A.、Giasson, T.(2017)。Welcome to Non-Stop Campaigning。Permanent Campaigning in Canada。Vancouver：UBC Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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