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題名:民意調查的科學基礎、政治功能與限制:以我國政府首長施政滿意度調查為例
書刊名:行政暨政策學報
作者:張四明 引用關係
作者(外文):Chang, Ssu-ming
出版日期:2000
卷期:2
頁次:頁1-39
主題關鍵詞:民意調查聲望調查施政滿意度策略投票問卷設計抽樣調查信賴敘述Public opinion pollsPopularity pollsSatisfaction with governor's performanceStrategic votingQuestionnaire designSurvey research
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(10) 博士論文(4) 專書(2) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:10
  • 共同引用共同引用:641
  • 點閱點閱:78
     本文先從一個比較宏觀的角度,討論民意調查的科學基礎、民意匯集功能與限制,爾後再循序導入我國政府首長施政滿意度調查的個案分析,進而從方法學和民意調查的政治功能兩個面向,來反思當前政治民意調查或施政滿意度調查所引發的爭議問題,本研究發現目前的政府首長施政滿意度調查.仍舊面臨許多技術面的難題,例如施政滿意度的概念製作與問卷設計、電話簿的編製架構與行政區不一致、電話調查系統的抽樣架構涵蓋率偏低及其衍生的問題等,這些因素相當程度限制了政冶民意調查的科學描述、解釋及預測能力。更有甚者,在調查技術尚待精益求精、尋求本土化突破之際,國內對於民意調查的操作與解讀經常偏向政治上的考量,充斥著結果論、簡化論、信賴敘述推論和至上論等迷思,本文最後提出重建政治民意調查的公信力,首要在於還給施政滿意度調查一個獨立自主的運作空間,避免政治力量或商業利益的不當侵擾,並將其制度,化為政府例行業務的一部份,定期實施各種民意調查來昭信於社會大眾。
     This paper is first to explore the scientific foundation of public opinion polls, their functions and constraints with the articulation of public opinion. Based on a macro perspective, the paper then evaluates several cases of polling on the satisfaction with governor's performance in Taiwan. Finally, I make acouple of treatises on the current polls of the satisfaction with governor's performance, with an emphasis on the niethodologicalissues and their political functions. The findings indicate that current polls on the satisfyyactionwith governor's performance encounter many difficulties in bothtechnical and political aspects. Specifically, the technical issuesare pertinent to those problems such as, conceptualization of the satisfaction with governor's performance, questionnaire design, low coverage and inconsistency of the sampling framework.These problems have detrimental effects on the abilities of thepolls to describe, explain and predict public opinion. Moreover ,the utilization of the polls tends to be very political-orientation ,over emphasizing on the outcomes, simplification, ability to forecasting, and paramountcy in decision-making. Toreconstruct public confidence in the polls, I suggest that pollingon the satisfaction with governor's performance should beinstitutionalized to be part of governance work.
期刊論文
1.周祖誠(19980200)。影響部會首長施政滿意度的因素:政府體制與調查爭議的討論。理論與政策,12(1)=45,73-88。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.Mueller, John E.(1970)。Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson。American Political Science Review,64(1),18-34。  new window
3.Jacobs, Lawrence R.、Shapiro, Robert Y.(1994)。Issues, Candidate Image and Priming: The Use of Private Polls in Kennedy’s 1960 Presidential Campaign。American Political Science Review,88,527-540。  new window
4.許慶復(19951100)。民意調查與選舉的深層省思。政策月刊,10,7-8+6。  延伸查詢new window
5.張四明(19970900)。強制就業計畫之影響評估: 支領津貼的雙親家庭個案分析。公共政策學報,18,1-32。  延伸查詢new window
6.梁德馨、石崇賢(19970400)。評分法資料解析之新概念以內閣施政滿意度研究為例。民意研究季刊,200,49-86。  延伸查詢new window
7.戴立安(19971000)。對國內電話調查之多段隨機撥號抽樣方式的初析。調查研究,4(1),131-198。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.賴世培(1998)。問卷設計中常見錯誤及其辨正之探討。第二屆「調查研究方法與應用」學術研討會,(會議日期: 1998/03/19-03/20)。  延伸查詢new window
2.傅恆德(1999)。縣市長施政滿意度的結構、詮釋與比較:中部五縣市的研究。施政滿意度學術研討會,世新大學民意調查研究中心主辦 (會議日期: 1999年11月26日)。  延伸查詢new window
3.蘇建州(1998)。穩健電話調查程序之初探。第二屆「調查研究方法與應用」學術研討會,(會議日期: 1998/03/19-03/20)。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.McClave, James T.、Sincich, Terry(1997)。A First Course in Statistics。Upper Saddle River, N. J.:Prentice-Hall International。  new window
2.Moore, D. S.、鄭唯厚(1998)。統計,讓數字說話!。台北:天下文化。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳膺強(1994)。應用抽樣調查。臺北:台灣商務印書館。  延伸查詢new window
4.Kernell, Samuel(1993)。Going Public: New Strategies of Presidential Leadership。Washington, DC:Congressional Quarterly Press。  new window
5.Duffy, M.、Goodgame, D.(1992)。Marching in Place: The Status Quo Presidency of George Bush。New York, NY:Simon and Schuster。  new window
6.Key, V. O. Jr.(1961)。Public Opinion and Democracy。New York:Knopif。  new window
7.Cohen, Jeffrey E.(1997)。Presidential Responsiveness and Public Policy-making: The Public and the Policies that Presidents Choose。Ann Arbor, Michigan:The University of Michigan Press。  new window
8.Reeves, Richard(1993)。President Kennedy: Profile of Power。New York, NY:Touchstone。  new window
9.Woodward, B.(1995)。The Agenda: Inside the White House。New York:Pocket Books。  new window
10.Rosenthal, Robert(1984)。Meta-analytic Procedures for Social Research。Sage Publications。  new window
11.胡佛(1998)。政治學的科學探究(一):方法與理論。台北:三民書局。  延伸查詢new window
12.賴世培(1996)。民意調查。臺北:國立空中大學。  延伸查詢new window
13.Altschuler, Bruce E.(1990)。LBJ and the Polls。Gainesville, F.L.:University of Florida Press。  new window
14.Asher, Herbert(1988)。Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know。Washington, DC:Congressional Quarterly Press。  new window
15.Nachmias, Chava Frankfort、Nachmias, David(1995)。Research Methods in Social Sciences。New York, N.Y:St. Martin’s College Publishing Group Inc.。  new window
16.Singleton, Royce A., Jr.、Straits, Bruce C.(1998)。Approaches to Social Research。New York, NY:Oxford University Press。  new window
17.楊國樞、文崇一、吳聰賢、李亦園(1989)。社會及行為科學研究法。臺北市:東華出版社。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.Ranney, Austin(1993)。Governing: An Introduction to Political Science。New York:CBS Colledge Publishing。  new window
19.Babbie, Earl Robert(1998)。The Practice of Social Research。International Thomson Publishing:Wadsworth。  new window
圖書論文
1.Crespi, Irving(1980)。The Case of Presidential Popularity。Polling on the Issues。Washington D.C.。  new window
2.丘昌泰(1998)。公共政策與民意調查:建立民意測驗評估體系芻議。政策科學之理論與實際:美國與台灣經驗。台北市:五南圖書公司。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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