:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:經濟狀況、施政表現與選民投票選擇:美國總統選舉多變項整合解釋模型,1972-2000
作者:俞龍通 引用關係
作者(外文):Steven Long-tong Yu
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:美國研究所
指導教授:陳一新
傅恆德
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2002
主題關鍵詞:投票行為投票選擇經濟投票美國總統選舉總統表現政黨表現多變項模型Electoral BehaviorVoting ChoiceEconomic VotingU.S. Presidential ElectionPresidential PerformanceParty PerformanceMultivariate Model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:62
論文名稱:經濟狀況、施政表現與投票選擇: 頁數:244
美國總統選舉多變項整合解釋模型—1972~2000
校系(所)組別:淡江大學 美國研究所博士班
畢業時間及提要別:九十學年度第二學期博士學位論文提要
研究生:俞龍通 陳一新博士
指導教授:
傅恆德博士
論文提要內容:
本文主旨強調多變項整合理論的分析架構下,影響選民投票選擇的因素中,政黨能力的影響效果最強,其次是政黨認同,再其次是總統表現和國家整體經濟狀況。儘管如此,屬於社會經濟和人口學的某些變項,如種族、教育、區域、就業狀態、婚姻及宗教等因素仍發揮顯著的影響。因此,只要能夠掌握總統選舉的性質、解析選民對總統表現、政黨執政能力、總體經濟狀況的評價及政黨認同強弱等核心變項的變化,同時深入觀察變動指標,如失業率、通貨膨脹或家庭價值等議題在某次選舉中的角色,將有助於解釋和預測過去與未來總統選舉選民投票行為的因果與趨勢。
本文的研究結論,有效釐清現有將政黨能力視為是政黨認同一部份的混淆,修正以政黨認同概括心理及理性層面要素的謬誤,辯別兩者在方法論角色及理論地位的異同。此外,強化經濟投票研究只以總統表現和經濟狀況做為主要分析變項的不足。彌補負面投票理論的弱點和增強前瞻性投票模型的適用性。對於方法論的增進與理論的發展將具有很大意義,對於未來選舉相關領域的研究將有很大的價值。
選民的投票傾向兼採正面與負面並行的模式。投給現任者或所屬政黨候選人的選民,採取正面投票為主負面投票為輔的模式。投給非現任者的選民,採取負面投票為主正面投票為輔的模式。再者,投票的主要根據為國家整體經濟狀況,個人經濟狀況的影響幾乎不存在。此外,選民不僅以現任總統任內施政表現及過去國家整體經濟狀況採取回顧性投票模式,也考量未來國家經濟發展及政黨能力採取前瞻性投票取向。最後,良好經濟情況較易產生回顧性投票,惡劣經濟情況則較有前瞻性的投票。
Title of Thesis: Economic Conditions, Presidential Performance Total pages: 210
And Voting Choice: A Multivariate Model in U.S.
Presidential Elections, 1972-2000.
Key Words: Voting Choice; Electoral Behavior; Economic Voting, Presidential Election; Presidential Performance; Party Performance; Multivariate Model.
Name of Institute: Graduate Institute of American Studies, Tamkang University
Graduate date: May 31, 2002. Degree Conferred: Ph. D.
Name of Student: Steven Lung-tong Yu Edward I-hsin Chen
Advisor:
Hung-der Fu
Abstract:
This dissertation tries to identify factors that influence voters’ choice in U.S. presidential elections from 1972-2000 with a multivariate framework. It is found that voters’ evaluation about party capability or performance is the most important factor, party identification is the secondary one, presidential performance and national economic conditions evaluations are the third. All these variables classified as core variables have a consistent and generalized effect upon voters’ choice. Other variables such as socio-economic and demographic factors including race, education, region, employment status, marriage status and religion categorized as peripheral variables are marginal important, but it should not be ignored. It is concluded that to study closely a mix of these two kinds of variables would make it easier to explain and predict past and future voting behavior trends of U.S. presidential elections.
This article argues that people vote in both a positive and negative way. When voting for incumbent president who seeks re-election or incumbent party succeeding candidate, they put much weight in positive way than negative, while less emphasis in positive voting for challengers. National economic condition has a stronger effect upon voters’ choice than personal financial condition, which has proved to be no significant influence. Prospective and retrospective evaluations are both voting patterns in voting consideration. In good economic time, people often take retrospective voting, while in bad times, prospective is prevailing.
Our findings contribute to theory-infirming and confirming. First, methodological and theoretical role of rational party capability and psychological party identification are distinguished, confusion is clarified and researches are infirmed that regard both as the same thing. Moreover, existing negative voting model is improved and prospective voting hypothesis is strengthened. In a word, it is valuable and meaningful to advance methodological and theoretical development in electoral grand theory.
參考資料
壹:中文部份
一、書籍
李沛良。1989。社會研究的統計分析。台北:巨流。
陳義彥和黃麗秋。1992。選舉行為與政發展。台北;黎明。
彭芸。1986。政治傳播:理論與實務。台北:巨流。new window
黃德福。1985。民主進步黨與臺灣地區民主化。台北:時英。new window
二、博、碩士論文
王興中。1995。「政黨形象與選舉行為」。東吳大學政治學研究所碩士論文。
丘梅光。1988。「探討變遷中的美國政黨制度,一九六四∼一九八四年」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
李建平。1986。「雷根總統供給面經濟政策的分析與評估」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
林淑惠。1991。「八○年代美國黑人政治參與之研究」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
周樹德。1994。「美國電視辯論制度對總統大選之影響:一九九二年大選個案分析」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
柯恆東。1988。「電根經濟問題研究」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
俞龍通。1994。「一九八四年美國總統選舉共和與民主兩黨競選策略比較分析」。東海大學政治學研究所碩士論文。
韋博仁。2000。「美國總統大選競選廣告之運用與爭議(1988、1992、1996」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
徐麗玲。1984。「美國傳播媒介對政治的影響力」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
陳秋旭。1988。「一九九二年美國總統大選柯林頓競選策略之研析:政治行銷之概念與實踐」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
陳坤森。1989。「美國政黨重組之理論與實際,1932-1988」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
許超俊。1996。「選舉制度與競選策略的研究:一個空間理論的分析」。政治大學政治研究所碩士論文。
黃富斌。2001。「民意調查與選舉:以一九九六年美國總統大選柯林頓對民調的使用為例」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
喬雅如。1985。「美國選民心目中政黨要性之衰微」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
黃瑞龍。1987。「電視與美國總統選舉」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
廖清祥。1991。「電視對美國總統選舉之影響:一九八八年大選個案之研究」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
劉孟釗。2001。「研析美國總統大選負面廣告之運用與爭議:以2000年美國總統選舉為例」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
藍培青。1986。「美國政黨對總統大選影響力式微現象之研究」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
羅 琳。1989。「美國總統大選性別差距現象與婦女投票行為之研究,1980-1984年」。淡江大學美國研究所碩士論文。
三、期刊
 (一)學術期刊
王業立。1990。「領導精英與民主」。政治學報,第18期,頁1-26。new window
王業立與黃上紡。1998。「變相買票:選舉性經濟循環與經濟選票競逐的均衡」,歐美選舉制度與行為,編著。中央研究院歐美研究所,頁1-19。
何思因。1990。「比較政黨認同研究」。問題與研究,第29卷第13期,頁62-7。new window
──。1992。「美國總統的聲望」。問題與研究,第31卷第4期,頁38-49。
言 五。1984。「美國總統大選前蠡測」。憲政評論,第15卷第11期,頁11。
洪永泰和張世昌。1996。「研究方法」,在謝復生等,行政院國家科學委員研究計劃成果報告:總統選舉選民投票行為之科際整合研究。
品 吉吉 。1984。 「一九八四年美國大選評析」。問題與研究,第24卷第3期,頁1-10。
陳一新。1989。「共和黨選舉人團牢鎖之迷思」。中央研究院美國文化研究所,頁302-315。
──。1992。「政黨在美國大選中的角色:演變與展望」。中華民國美國研究協會,頁20-22。
陳坤森。1989。「美國政黨政治體質轉變」。東方雜誌,第23卷第4期,頁39-47。
陳義彥。1984。「美國選民投票抉擇影響因素之研究─從一九八0年總統大選探析」。政治學報,第四十九期,頁44-72。
──。1995。「美國選民投票抉擇之預測因素─從一九八八年總統大選探析」。美國研究學會主編。美國研究論文集,頁27-76。
黃秀端。1996。「候選人因素與總統選舉」,在謝復生等,行政院國家科學委員會研究計劃成果報告:總統選舉選民投票行為之科際整合研究。
傅恆德。1986。「集體行動的整合理論:理性選擇和心理動機理論」。東海大學學報,第三十七卷,頁107-132。new window
──。1988年。「決定投票選擇的結構、心理和理性因素:民國八十五年總統選舉研究」。選舉研究,第三卷第二期,頁157-186。
馮啟人。1992。「美國總統選舉芻議」。東海社會科學學報,第三十三卷第十一期,頁350-64。new window
游清鑫。2000 。「選民投票行為研究中選民對投票選擇過度回答(over reporting)之探索研究」。行政院國家科學委員專題研究計畫。
黃偉峰。1998。「英國浮動選民與第三黨投票取向之研究」。歐美研究,第廿八卷第四期,頁1-61。new window
──。1996。「解讀美國總統大選之預測」。美國月刊,第十一卷第二期,頁93-121。
楊光中。1988。「美國總統選舉影響國家重大公共政策變革之研究」。歐美研究,第二十八卷第二期,頁153-214。new window
劉義周。1994。「美國總統初選制度的變遷:民主參與價值與舉才功能間的擺盪」,美國政黨與利益團體研討會,編著。中央研究院歐美研究所,頁224-244。
謝復生和牛銘實。1996。「總統選舉中選民的投票抉擇:一個理性抉擇理論的分析」。選舉制度、選舉行為與台灣地區政治民主化,編著。政治大學選舉研究中心。
貳:英文部份
І.BOOKS
Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, and David W. Rohde. 1987. Change and Continuity in the 1984 Elections. Rev. ed. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
──. 1994. Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
Amond, Gabriel A. 1950. The American People and Foreign Policy. New York: Harcourt, Brace.
Ansolabehere, Stephen., and Shanton Iyengar. 1995. Going Negative: How Political Advertisements Shrink and Polarize the Electorate. New York: Free Press.
Avery, M. 1989. The demobilization of American voters. New York: Greenwood.
Bennett, Stephen Earl. 1986. Apathy in America, 1960-1984: Causes and Consequences of Citizen Political Indifference. Dobbs Ferry, N.Y.: Transnational Publishers.
Bennett, Stephen Earl.1978. “The Puzzle of Participation.” In The New American Political System, ed. Anthony King. Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute.
Benoit, William L., and William T. Wells. 1996. Candidates in Conflict: Persuasive Attack and Defense in the 1992 Presidential Debates. Tuscaloosa: University of Alabama Press.
Brace, Kimball W. 1993. ed. The Election Data Book: A Statistical Portrait of Voting in America 1992. Lanham, Md.: Bernan Press.
Buchanan, Bruce. 1996. Renewing Presidential Politics: Campaigns, Media, and The Public Interest. Md.: Rowman & Littlefield.
Burnham, Walter Dean. 1982. The Current Crisis in American Politics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Butler, David, and Austin Ranney. ed. 1992. Electioneering: A Comparative Study of Continuity and Change. Oxford〔England〕: Clarendon Press; New York: Oxford University Press.
Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.
Ceaser, James W., Andrew Busch. 1993. Upside Down and Inside Out: the 1992 Elections and American Politics. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield.
Cohen, Carl. 1973. Democracy. Glencoe, IL.: Free Press.
──.1991. Political Participation in the United States. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
Crotty, William.1991. Political Participation and American Democracy. New York: Greenwood Press.
DeVries, Walter, and V. Lance Tarrance. 1972. The Ticket Splitter: A New Force in American Politics. Grand Rapids: W. B. Eerdmans.
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.
Edelman, Murray. 1964. The Symbolic Uses of Politics. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.
Fiorina, M. P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Grofman, Bernard. Ed. 1995. Information, Participation and Choice: An Economic Theory of Democracy in Perspective. An Arbor: the University of Michigan Press.
Hadley, Arthur T. 1978. The Empty Polling Booth. Englewood Cliffs, NJ.: Prentice-Hall.
Harrop, Martin, and William L. Miller. 1987. Elections and Voters: A Comparative Introduction. The Macmillan Press.
Hill, David B., and Norman R.Luttberg. 1980. Trends in American Electoral Behavior. Itasca, Ill.: Peacock.
Hutchins, Robert M. 1952. The Great Conversation: The Substance of a Liberal Education. Chicago: Encyclopedia Britannica.
Iyengar, Shanto, and Donald R. Kinder. 1987. News That Matters. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Kessel, John. 1980. Presidential Campaign Politics: Coalition Strategies and Citizen Response. Homewood, Ill.: Dorsey Press.
Key, V. O. Jr. 1949. Southern Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
──.1966. The Responsible Electorate. New York: Vintage.
Kiewiet, Donald R. 1983. Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
King , Anthony. ed. 1978. The New American Political System. Washington: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.
Klapper, Joseph. 1960. The Effects of Mass Communication. New York: Free Press.
Kornbluh, Mark Lawrence. 1999. Why Americans Stopped Voting: the Decline of Participatory Democracy and the Emergence of Modern American Politics. New York: New York University Press.
Ladd, Everett C. 1978. Where Have All the Voters Gone? New York: Norton.
Lazarsfeld, Paul F., Bernard Berelson, and Helen Gaudet. 1948. The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. 2nd ed. New York: Columbia University Press.
Lipset, Seymour Martin. 1981. Political Man. Rev. ed. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Milbrath, Lester W., and M. L. Gole. 1977. Political Participation: How and Why Do People Get Involved in Politics? 2nd ed. Chicago: Rand McNally College Pub. Co.
Mill, John Stuart. 1958. Considerations on Representative Government. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill.
Miller, Warren E., Arthur H. Miller, and Edward J. Schneider. 1980. American National Election Studies Sourcebook, 1952-1978. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Miller, Warren E., and Santa A. Traugott. 1989. American National Election Studies Data Sourcebook, 1952-1986. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Nie, Norman H., Sidney Verba, and John R. Petrocik. 1979. The Changing American Voter, 2nd ed. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Niemi, Richard G., and Herbert F. Weisberg. ed. 1993. Classics in Voting Behavior. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
Pika, Joseph A., Zelma Mosley, and Richard A. Watson. ed. 1992. The Presidential Contest: with a Guide to the 1992 Presidential Race. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
Piven, Frances Fox., and Richard A. Cloward. 1988. Why Americans Don’t Vote. New York: Pantheon.
Popkin, Samuel L. 1991. The Reasoning Voter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Rae, Douglas W. 1971. The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws, 2nd ed. New
Haven: Yale University Press.
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Mark Hansen.1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillan Publishing.
Shienbaum, Kim Ezra. 1984. Beyond the Electoral Connection: A Reassessment of the Role of Voting in Contemporary American Politics. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Stanley, Harold W., and Richard G. Niemi. 1992. Vital Statistics on American Politics. Statistical Portrait of Voting in America 1992. Lanham, Md.: Bernan Press.
Tacq, Jacques. 1997. Multivariate Analysis Techniques in Social Sciences Research: From Problem to Analysis. Thousand Oaks, London; New Delhi.: Sage Publication.
Teixeira, Ruy A. 1987. Why Americans Don’t Vote: Turnout Decline in the United States, 1960-1984. New York: Greenwood Press.
──. 1992. The Disappering American Voter. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.
Thompson, Dennis F. 1970. The Democratic Citizen. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Verba, Sidney, and Norman H. Nie. 1972. Participation in America. New York: Harper & Row.
──.1987. Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Walker, Jack L. 1966. A Critique of the Elitist Theory of Democracy. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
Wayne, Stephen J. 1992. The Road to the White House. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Steven J. Rosenstone. 1980. Who Vote? New Heaven, Conn.: Yale University Press.
ІІ.PERIODICALS
(І)JOURNAL:
Abramowitz, A. I. 1985. “Economic Conditions, Presidential Popularity, and Voting Behavior in Midterm Congressional Elections.” Journal of Politics 47: 31-43.
──. 2001. “The Time for Change Model and the 2000 Election.” American Politics Research 29: 279-83.
Abramowitz, A. I., and D. J. Lanoue, and S. Ramesh. 1988. “Economic Conditions, Causal Attributions, and Political Evaluations in the 1984 Presidential Election.” Journal of Politics 50: 848-63.
Abramson, Paul R., and John H. Aldrich. 1982. “The Decline of Electoral Participation in America.” American Political Science Review 76: 502-21.
Abramson, Paul R., and William Claggett. 1984. “Race-Related Differences in Self-Reported Turnout.” Journal of Politics 46: 718-38.
──.1986. “Race-Related Differences in Self-Reported and Validated Turnout in 1984.” Journal of Politics 48: 412-22.
Aldrich, John H., John Sullivan, and Eugene Borgida. 1989. “Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidates ‘Waltz Before a Blind Audience?’ ” American Political Science Review 83: 123-42.
Alexander, Herbert E., and Anthony Corrado. 1995. Financing the 1992 Election. Armonk, N.Y.: M. E. Sharpe.
Alvarez R. Michael., and Jonathan Nagler.1995. “Economics, Issues, and Perot Candidacy: Voter Choice in the 1992 Presidential Election.” American Journal of Political Science 39: 714-44.
──.1998. “Economics, Entitlements, and Social Issues: Voter Choice in the 1996 Presidential Election.” American Journal of Political Science 42: 1349-63.
Anderson, Barbara A., and Brian D. Silver. 1986. “Measurement and Mismeasurement of the Validity of the Self-Reported Vote.” American Journal of Political Science 30: 771-85.
Ansolabehere, Stephen, Shanton Iyengar, Adam Simon, and Nicholas Valentino.1994. “Does Attack Advertising Demobilize the Electorate? “ American Political Science Review 88: 829-38.
Arcelus, F., and A. H. Meltzer. 1975. “The Effect of Aggregate Economic Variables on Congressional Elections.” American Political Science Review 69: 1232-39.
Ashenfelter, Orley, and Kelly Stanley, Jr. 1975. “Determinants of Participation in Presidential Elections.” Journal of Law and Economics 18: 695-733.
Atkeson, Lonna R., and Randall W. Partin. 1995. “Economic and Referendum Voting: A Comparasion of Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections.” American Political Science Review 89: 90-107.
Beck, Nathaniel. 1975. “The Paradox of Minimax Regret.” American Political Science Review 69: 918.
Bennett, Stephen E., and William R. Klecka. 1970. “Social Status and Political Participation: A Multivariate Analysis of Predictive Power.” Midwest Journal of Political Science 14: 355-82.
──.1990. “The Implications of Nonvoting for Democracy in the United States.” American Journal of Political Science 34: 771-802
Bennett, Stephen E. 1990. “The Use and Abuses of Registration and Turnout Data: An Analysis of Piven and Cloward’s Studies of Nonvoting in American.” PS: Political Science and Politics 23: 166-71.
Blais, Andre’, Robert Young, Christopher Fleury, and Miriam Lapp. 1995. “Do People Vote on the Basis of Minimax Regret?” Political Research Quarterly 48: 827-36.
Blank, Robert H. 1974. “Socio-economic Determinism of Voting Turnout: A Challenge.” Journal of Politics 36: 731-52.
Bloom, H. S., and H. D. Price. 1975. “Voter Response to Short-run Economic Conditions: The Asymmetric Effect of Prosperity and Recession.” American Political Science Review 69: 1240-54.
Bowler, Shaun, and Todd Donovan. 1994. “Economic Conditions and Voting Ballot Propositions.” American Politics Quarterly 22: 27-41.
Boyd, Richard W. “Decline of U.S Voter Turnout: Structural Explanations.” American Politics Quarterly 9: 133-159.
Braibanti, Ralph. 1968. “Comparative Political Analytics Reconsidered. “ Journal of Politics 30: 36.
Bratton, Kathleen A. 1994. “Retrospective Voting and Future Expectations: The Case of Budget Deficit in the 1988 Election.” American Politics Quarterly 22: 227-96.
Brennan, Geoffrey, and Loren F. Lomasky. 1987. “The Logic of Electoral Preference.” Economics and Philosophy 3: 189-211.
Brody, Richard A. 1978. “The Puzzle of Participation.” In The New American Political System, ed. Anthony King, 290. Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute.
Brody, Richard A., and P. M. Sniderman. 1977. “From Life Space to Polling Place: The Relevance of Personal Concerns for Voting Behavior.” British Journal of Political Science 7: 337-60.
Campbell, Angus, and Warren E. Miller. 1957. “The Motivational Basis of Straight and Split Ticket Voting.” American Political Science Review 51: 293-312.
Campbell, Angus. 1966. “Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change.” Public Opinion Quarterly 24: 118-30.
Campbell, James E. 2000. “Poll and Votes: The Trial-heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model.” In Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections, ed. James E. Campbell and J.C. Garand, 17-46. Thousand Oak, CA.: Sage.
──. 2001. “Taking Stock of the Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election.” American Politics Research 29: 275-78.
──. 2001. “An Evaluation of the Trial-Heat and Economy Forecast of the Presidential Vote in the 2000 Election.” American Politics Research 29: 289-98.
Carmines, Edward G., and James A. Stimson. 1984. “The Dynamics of Issue Evolution: The United States.” In Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies: Realignment or Dealignment? ed.Russell J. Dalton, et al., 134-58. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Cassel, Carol A., and David B. Hill. 1981. “Explanations of Turnout Decline: a Multivariate Test.” American Politics Quarterly 9: 181-95.
Cavanagh, Thomase E. “Change in American Voter Turnout, 1964-1976.” Political Science Quarterly 96: 53-65.
Chappell, Henry W., Jr., and William R. Keech. 1985. “A New View of Political Accountability for Economic Performance.” American Political Science Review 79: 10-27.
──.1990. “Economic Performance, Voting, and Political Support: A United Approach.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 72: 313-20.
Clausen, Aage. 1968. “Response Validity: Voter Report.” Public Opinion Quarterly, 32: 588-606
Conover, Pamela J., Stanley Feldman, and K. Knight. 1986. “Judging Inflation and Unemployment: The Origins of Retrospective Evaluations.” Journal of Politics 48: 565-88.
──. 1987. “The Personal and Political Underpinnings of Economic Forecasts.” American Journal of Political Science 31: 559-83.
Conway, Margaret M. 1981. “Political Participation in Midterm Congressional Elections: Attitudinal and Social Characteristics during the 1970s.” American Politics Quarterly 9: 221-44.
DeNardo, J. 1980. “Turnout and the Vote: The Joke’s on the Democrats.” American Political Science Review 74: 406-20.
──.1986. “Does Heavy Turnout Help Democrats in Presidential Elections? ” American Political Science Review 80: 1298-1304.
Dutch, Raymond H., Harvey D. Palmer, and Christopher J. Anderson. 2000. “Heterogeneity in Perceptions of National Economic Conditions.” American Journal of Political Science 44: 635-52.
Eckstein, Harry. 1963. “A Perspective on Comparative Politics, Past and Present.” In Comparative Politics: A Reader, ed. David E. Apter, 3. New York: Free Press.
Elshtain, Jean Berthke. 1989. “Issues in the 1988 Campaign.” In The Elections of 1988, ed. Michael Nelson, 111-26. Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.
Erickson, R. S. 1981. “Why Do People Vote? Because They Are Registered.” American Politics Quarterly 9: 259-76.
──. 1989. “Economic Conditions and the Presidential Vote.” American Political Science Review 83: 567-73.
Erikson, R. S., and K. L. Tedin. 1981. “The 1928-1932 Partisan Realignment:
The Case for the Conversion Hypothesis.” American Political Science Review 75: 951-62.
Fair, Ray C. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 60: 159-73.
Farah, Barbara G., and Ethel Klein. 1989. “Public Opinion Trends.” In The Election of 1988: Reports and Interpretation, ed. Gerald M. Pomper, et al., 111. Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House Publishers Inc.
Feigenbaum, Susan, Lynn Kardy, and David Levy. 1988. “When Votes Are Words Not Deeds: Some Evidence from the Nuclear Freeze Referendum.” Public Choice 58: 201-16.
Feldman, S. 1982. “Economic Self-Interest and Political Behavior.” American Journal of Political Science 26: 446-66.
Ferejohn, John A., and Morris P. Fiorina. 1974. “The Paradox of Not Voting: A Decision Theoretic Analysis.” American Political Science Review 68: 525-36.
Filer, John E., and Lawrence W. Kenny. 1980. “Voter Turnout and the Benefits of Voting.” Public Choice 35: 575-85.
Fiorina, M. P. 1976. “The Voting Decision: Instrumental and Expressive Aspects.” Journal of Politics 38: 390-413.
──.1978. “Economic Retrospective Voting in American National Elections: A Micro-Analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 22: 426-33.
Frankovic, Kathleen A. 1985. “The 1984 election: The Irrelevance of the Campaign.” PS: Political Science and Politics 18: 39-47.
Funk, Carolyn L., and Patricia Garcia-Monet. 1997. “The Relationships Between Personal and National Concerns in Public Perceptions About the Economy.” Political Research Quarteryl 50: 317-42.
Gans, Curtis B. 1978. “The Empty Ballot Box: Reflections on Nonvoters in America.” Public Opinion 1: 54-7.
Gant, Michael M., and William Lynos. 1993. “Democratic Theory, Nonvoting, and Public Policy: the 1972-1988 Presidential Elections.” American Politics Quarterly 21: 185-204.
Glazer, Amihai. 1987. “A New Theory of Voting: Why Vote When Millions of Others Do?” Theory and Decision 22: 257-70.
Gomez, Brad T., and Matthew Wilson. 2001. “Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American Electorate: A Theory of Heterogeneous Attribrtion.” American Journal of Political Science 45: 899-914.
Graber, Doris. 1976. “Press and TV as Opinion Resources in Presidential Campaigns.” Public Opinion Quarterly 40: 285-303.
Harrington, Joseph., Jr. “Economic Policy, Economic Performance, and Elections.” The American Economic Review 83: 27-42.
Hess, Stephen, and Michael Nelson. 1985. “Foreign Policy: Dominance and Decisiveness in Presidential Elections.” In The Elections of 1984, ed. Michael Nelson, 143-44. Washington: CQ Press.
Hessing, D. J., H. Elffers, and R. H. Weigel. 1988. “Exploring the Limits of Self-Reports and Reasoned Action: An Investigation of the Psychology of Tax Evasion Behavior.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54: 405-13.
Hetherington, Marc J. 1999. “The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968-96.” American Political Science Review 93: 311-26.
Hibbs, J. R., and J. R. Alford. 1981. “The Electoral Impact of Economic Conditions: Who Is Held Responsible?” American Journal of Political Science 25: 423-39.
Hinich, Melvin J. 1981. “Voting as an Act of Contribution.” Public Choice 36: 135-40.
Hinich, Melvin J., and Peter C. Ordeshook. 1969. “Abstentions and Equilibrium in the Electoral Process.” Public Choice 8: 81-100.
Holbrook, Thomas M. 2001. “(Mis)reading the Political Tea Leaves.” American Politics Research 29: 297-301.
Holt, Robert T., and John E. Turner. 1970. “The Methodology of Comparative Research.” In The Methodology of Comparative Research, ed. Holt and Turner, 11-3. New York: Free Press.
Huckfelt, Robert. “Political Participation and the Neighborhood Social Context.” American Journal of Political Science 23: 579-92.
Jackman, Robert. 1987. “Political Institutions and Vote Turnout in the Industrial Democracies.” American Political Science Review 81: 405-23.
Jesse Marquette and Katherine Hinckley. 1988. “Vote Turnout and Candidate Choice.” Political Behavior 10: 52-76.
Katosh, John P., and Michael W. Traugott. 1981. “The Consequences of Validated and Self-Reported Voting Measures.” Public Opinion Quarterly 45: 519-35
──. 1982. “Costs and Values in the Calculus of Voting.” American Journal of Political Science 26: 361-76.
Kelley, S. Jr., R. E. Ayres, and W. G. Bowen. 1967. “Registration and Voting: Putting First Thing First.” American Political Science Review 61: 359-79.
Kenny, Christopher. 1993. “The Microenvironment of Political Participation.” American Politics Quarterly 21: 223-37.
Kenski, Henry C. 1977. “The Impact of Economic Conditions on Presidential Popularity.” Journal of Politics 39: 764-73.
Kernell, S. 1977. “Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting: An Alternative Explanation of the Mid-term Congressional Decline of the President’s Party.” American. Political Science Review 71: 44-66.
──. 1978. “Explaining Presidential Popularity.” American Political Science Review 72: 506-22.
Key, V. O. Jr. 1955. “A Theory of Critical Election.” Journal of Politics: 17: 3-18.
──. 1959.“ Secular Realignment and the Party System.” Journal of Politics 21: 198-210.
Kiewiet, Donald R., and Rivers Douglas. 1985. “The Economic Basis of Reagan’s Appeal.” In The New Direction in American Politics, ed. John Chubb and Paul Peterson, 69-90. Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution.
Kiewiet, Donald R. 1981. “Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues.” American Political Science Review 75: 448-59.
Kinder, Donald R., Gordon S. Adams, and Paul W. Gronke. 1989. “Economics and Politics in 1984 American Presidential Election.” American Journal of Political Science 33: 491-515.
Kinder, Donald R., and Donald R. Kiewitet. 1979. “Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgments in Congressional Voting.” American Journal of Political Science 23: 495-527.
──. 1981. “Sociotropic Politics: The American Case.” British Journal of Political Science 11: 129-62.
Kramer, G. H. 1970-1971. “The Effect of Precinct-Level Canvassing on Voting Behavior.” Public Opinion Quarterly 34: 560-72.
──. 1971. “Short-term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964.” American Political Science Review 65: 131-43.
──. 1983. “The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate versus Individual-level Evidence on Economics and Elections and Sociotropic Voting.” American Political Science Review. 77: 92-111.
Kuklinski, James H., and Darrell M. West. 1981. “Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States Senate and House Elections.” American Political Science Review 75: 436-47.
Ladd, Everett C. “The 1988 Eelections: Continuation of the Post New Deal System.” Political Science Quarterly 104: 11-4.
Lanoue, David J. 1992. “Retrospective and Prospective Voting in Presidential-Year Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 60: 193-205.
LaPalombara, Joseph. 1968. “Macrotheories and Microapplications in Comparative Politics.” Comparative Politics 1: 60-77.
Lasswell, Harold D. 1968. “The Future of the Comparative Method.” Comparative Politics 1: 3.
Lau, Richard R. 1985. “Two Explanations for Negativity Effects in Political Behavior.” American Journal of Political Science 29: 119-38.
Lau, Richard R., and David O. Sears. 1981. “Cognitive Links Between Economic Grievances and Political Responses.” Political Behavior 3: 279-302.
Lazarsfeld, Paul F. 1955. “Interpretation of Statistical Relations as a Research Operation.” In The Language of Social Research, ed. Lazarsfeld and Morris Rosenberg, 119. Glencoe, III.: Free Press.
Ledyard, John O. 1984. “The Pure Theory of Large Two Candidate Elections.” Public Choice 44: 7-41.
Leighley, Jan E. 1990. “Social Interaction and Contextual Influences on Political Participation.” American Politics Quarterly 18: 459-75.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1985. “Pocketbook Voting in U.S. National Election Studies.” American Journal of Political Science 29: 348-57.
──. 1988. “Economics and the American Voter: Past, Present, and Future.” Political Behavior 10: 5-21.
Lewis-beck, Michael S., and Brad Lockerbie. 1989. “Economics, Votes, Protests: Western European Cases.” Comparative Political Studies 22: 155-77.
Lewis-Beck , Michael S., and Charles Tien. 2001. “Election 2000: How Wrong was the Forecast?” American Politics Research 29: 302-6.
Lijphart, Arend. 1971. “Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method.” American Political Science Review 65: 683-93.
Lipset, Seymour M. 1985. “The Elections, the Economy and Public Opinion: 1984.” PS: Political Science and Politics 18: 28-38.
Lockerbie, Brad. 1991. “Prospective Economic Voting in U.S. House Elections, 1956-88.” Legislative studies Quarterly 16: 239-61.
──.1992. “Prospective Voting in Presidential Elections, 1956-1988.” American Politics Quarterly 20: 308-25.
──. 2001. “Forecast 2000: An Afterthought.” American Politics Research 29: 307-12.
MacKuen, Michael. B., R. S. Erikson, and J. A. Stimson. 1992. “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U. S. Economy.” American Political Science Review 86: 597-611.
MacKuen, Michael B. 1983. “Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity.” American Journal of Political Science 27: 165-96.
Markus, G. B. 1988. “The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions on the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-sectional Analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 32: 137-54.
Marquette , Jesse F., and Katherine A. Hinckley. “Voter Turnout and Candidate Choice: A Mergered Theory.” Political Behavior 10: 52-76.
Mayer, Lawrence S., and I. J. Good. 1975. “Is Minimax Regret Applicable to Voting Decision?” American Political Science Review 69: 916-7.
Meehl, P. E. 1977. “The Selfish Voter Paradox and the Thrown-away Vote Argument.” American Political Science Review 71: 11-30.
Miller, Arthur H. 1993. “Economic, Character, and Social Issues in the 1992 Presidential Election.” American Behavioral Scientist 37: 315-27.
Miller, Arthur H., and Martin P. Wattenberg. 1985. “Throwing the Rascals Out: Policy and Performance Evaluations of Presidential Candidates, 1952-1980.” American Political Science Review 79: 359-72.
Miller, Warren E. 1980. “Disinterest, Disaffection, and Participation in Presidential Politics.” Political Behavior 2: 7-32.
──. 1992. “The Puzzle Transformed: Explaining Declining Turnout.” Political Behavior 14: 1-43
Monroe, Krisen. 1978. “Economic Influences on Presidential Popularity.” Public Opinion Quarterly 42: 360-9.
Moon, David. 1992. “The Determinants of Turnout in Presidential Elections: An Integrative Model Accounting for Information.” Political Behavior 14: 123-40.
Moore, J. C., and K. H. Marquis. (n.d.) “Response Errors in SIPP: Some Beginning Estimates Based on Administrative Records.” Unpublished Memorandum, 1-6. Washington, D. C.: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Morton, Robecca B. 1991. “Groups in Rational Turnout Models.” American Journal of Political Science 35: 758-76.
Muller, N. Edward, Mitchell A. Seligson, Hung-der Fu(傅恆德), and Manus I. Midlarsky. 1989. “Land Inequality and Political Violence.“ American Political Science Review 83: 577-595.
Norpoth, Helmut. 1984. “Economics, Politics, and the Cycle of Presidential Popularity.” Political Behavior 6: 253-73.
Palfrey, Thomas R., and Howard Rosenthal. 1985. “Voter Participation and Strategic Uncertainty.” American Political Science Review 79: 62-78.
Parry, Geraint. 1972. “The Idea of Political Participation.” In Participation in Politics, ed. Geraint Parry, 19-26. Oxford: Manchester University Press.
Patterson, Samuel C., and Gregory A. Caldeira. 1983. “Getting Out the Vote in Gubernatorial Elections.” American Political Science Review 77: 675-89.
Peffley, Mark., and John T. Williams. 1985. “Attributing Presidential Responsibility for National Economic Problems.” American Politics Quarterly 13: 393-425.
Petrocik, John R. 1981. “Voter Turnout and Electoral Oscillation.” American Politics Quarterly 9: 161-80.
Piven, Frances Fox., and Richard A. Cloward. 1989. “Governing Statistics and Conflicting Explanations of Nonvoting.” PS: Political Science and Politics 22: 580-88.
Plotkin, Henry A. 1977. “Issues in the 1976 Presidential Campaign.” In The Election of 1976: Reports and Interpretations, ed. Gerald Pomper, 35-53. Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House Publishers Inc.
Powell, G. Bingham., Jr. “American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective.”
American Political Science Review 80: 17-43.
Rabinowitz, G., J. W. Prothro, and W. Jacoby. 1982. “Salience as a Factor in the Impact of Issues on Candidate Evaluation.” Journal of Politics 44: 41-63.
Radcliff, B. 1992. “The Welfare State, Turnout and the Economy: A Comparative Analysis.” American Political Science Review 86: 444-54.
──. 1994. “Turnout and the Democratic Vote.” American Politic Quarterly 22: 259-76.
Reiter. H. L. 1979. “Why is Turnout Down?” Public Opinion Quarterly 43: 297-311.
RePass, D. 1971. “Issue Salience and Party Choice.” American Political Science Review 65: 389-400.
Riker, William H., and Peter C. Ordeshook. 1968. “A Theory of the Calculus of Voting.” American Political Science Review 62: 25-42.
Robinson, Michael. 1976. “Public Affairs Television and the Growth of Political Malaise.” American Political Science Review 70: 409-32.
Rose, Richard., and Ian McAllister. 1992. “Expressive Versus Instrumental Voting.” In Electoral Politics, ed. Dennis Kavanagh ,14-40. Oxford: Claredom Press.
Rosenstone, Steven J. 1982. “Economic Adversity and Voter Turnout.” American Journal of Political Science 26: 25-46.
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Raymond E. Wolfinger. 1978. “The Effect of Registration Laws on Voting Turnout.” American Political Science Review 72: 22- 45.
Salisbury, Robert H. 1975. “Research on Political Participation.” American Journal of Political Science 19: 323-41.
Salisbury, Robert H., and M. Macckuen. 1981. Journal of Politics 43: 523-30.
Schneider, Friedrich. 1984. “Public Attitudes toward Economic Conditions and Their Impact on Government Behavior.” Political Behavior 6: 211-28.
Schwartz, Thomas. 1987. “Your Vote Counts on Account of the Way It Is Counted: An Institutional Solution to the Paradox of Not Voting.” Public Choice 54: 101-21.
Settle, Russell F., and Burton A. Abrams. 1976. “The Determinants of Voter Participation. A More General Model.” Public Choice 27: 81-9.
Shaffer, Stephen D. 1981. “A Multivariate Explanation of Decreasing Turnout in Presidential Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 25: 68-95.
Shively, W. P. 1992. “From Differential Abstention to Conversion: A Change in Electoral Change, 1864-1988.” American Journal of Political Science 36: 309-30.
Silver, Brian D., Barbara A. Anderson, and Paul R. Abramson. 1986. “Who ‘Overreports’ Voting.” American Political Science Review 80: 613-24.
Silver, Morris. 1973. “A Demand Analysis of Voting Costs and Voting Participation.” Social Science Research 2: 111-24.
Sigleman, Lee. 1982. “The Nonvoting Voter in Voting Research.” American Journal of Political Science 26: 47-56.
Smelser, Neil J. 1966. “Note on the Methodology of Comparative Analysis of Economic Activity.” Transactions of the Sixth World Congress of Sociology. International Sociological Association.
Southwell, Priscilla L. 1988. “The Mobilization Hypothesis and Voter Turnout in Congressional Elections.” Western Political Quarterly 41(2): 173-88.
──. 1994. “Economic Salience and Differential Abstention in Presidential Elections.” American Politics Quarterly 24: 221-36.
Squire, Peverill, Raymond E. Wolfinger, and David P. Glass. 1987. “Residential Mobility and Voter Turnout.” American Political Science Review 81: 45- 65.
Stephens, Stephen U. 1975. “The Paradox of Not Voting: Comment.” American Political Science Review 69: 914-5.
Stokes, Donald E. 1966. “Some Dynamic Elements of Contests for the Presidency.” American Political Science Review 60: 19-68.
──. 1992. “Valence Politics,” In Electoral Politics, ed. Dennis Kavanagh, 141-64.Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Strom, Gerald S. 1975. “On the Apparent Paradox of Participation: A New Proposal.” American Political Science Review 69: 908-13.
Tideman, Nicolas T.1985. “Remorse, Elation, and the Paradox of Voting.” Public Choice 46: 103-6.
Tollison, Robert D., W. M. Crain, and Paul Paulter. 1975. “Information and Voting: An Empirical Note.” Public Choice 24: 43-9.
Tucker, H., and A. Vedlitz. 1986. “Does Heavy Turnout Help Democrats in Presidential Elections?” American Political Science Review 80: 1291-98.
Tufte, E. R. 1975. “Determinants of the Outcomes of Mid-term Congressional Elections.” American Political Science Review 69: 812-26.
Tullock, Gordon. 1975. “The Paradox of Not Voting for Oneself.” American Political Science Review 69: 919.
Uhlaner, Carole Jean. 1989a. “Rational Turnout: The Neglected Role of Groups.” American Journal of Political Science 33: 390-422.
──. 1989b. “Relational Goods and Participation: Incorporating Sociability into a Theory of Rational Action.” Public Choice 62: 253-85.
──.1995. “What the Downsian Voter Weights: A Reassessment of the Costs and Benefits of Actions.” In Information, Participation and Choice: An Economic Theory of Democracy in Perspective, ed. Bernard Grofman, 67-80. An Arbor: the University of Michigan Press.
Weatherford, S. M. 1978. “Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes: Class Differences in the Political Response to Recession.” American Journal of Political Science 22: 917-38.
──. 1983.“Economic Voting and the ‘Symbolic Politics’ Argument: A Reinterpretation and Synthesis.” American Political Science Review 77: 158-74.
Weiner, Bernard, Irene Frieze, Andy Kukla, Linda Reed, and Robert M. Rosenberg. 1972.“Perceiving the Causes and Success and Failure.” In Attribution: Perceiving the Cause of Behavior, ed. Edward E. Jones et al., 1-50. Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press.
Weisberg, Herbert F., and Bernard Grofman. 1981. “Candidate Evaluations and Turnout.” American Political Quarterly 9: 197-219.
Weisberg , Herbert F., and Jerrold G. Rusk. 1970. “Dimensions of Candidate Evaluation.” American Political Science Review 64: 1167.
Weizien, Chrisopher, and Robert S. Erikson. 2001. “After the Election: Our Forecast in Retrospective.” American Politics Research 29: 320-8.
Welch, W. P. 1974. “The Economics of Campaign Funds.” Public Choice, 20: 83-97.
(II)World Wide Web sites
Mayer, Russell. 1991. “Identifying Bias in Voting Models.” Technical Report41:1-30. http://www.umich.edu/~nes/resources/techrpts/tech-abs/tech-ab41.html, 2001/10/7.
Presser, Stanley, Michael W. Traugott., and Santa Traugott. 1990. “Vote “Over” Reporting in Surveys: The Records or Respondents.” Technical Report 39: 1-28.
http://www.umich.edu/~nes/resources/techrpts/tech-abs/tech-ab39.html,2001/10/7.
Traugott, Santa. 1989. “Validating Self-Reported Vote: 1964-1988.” Technical Report 34: 1-28. Available at
http://www.umich.edu/~nes/resources/techrpts/tech-abs/tech-ab34.html, 2001/10/7.
Traugott, Michael W., Santa Traugott, and Presser Stanley. 1992. “Revalidation of Self-Reported Vote.” Technical Report 42: 1-18. Available at
http://www.umich.edu/~nes/resources/techrpts/tech-abs/tech-ab42.html, 2001/10/7.
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關著作
 
QR Code
QRCODE