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題名：經濟投票與總統選舉：效度與內生問題的分析
書刊名：臺灣政治學刊
作者：吳親恩 引用關係／林奕孜
作者(外文)：Wu, Chin-en／Lin, Yi-tze
出版日期：2012
卷期：16:2
頁次：頁175-232
主題關鍵詞：總統選舉；經濟投票；效度；內生經濟投票；Presidential election；Economic voting；Validity；Endogenous economic voting
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(10) 博士論文(1) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:9
  • 共同引用共同引用:236
  • 點閱點閱:131
透過分析 1996 年至 2008 年四次總統大選的面訪資料，本文 檢視面訪中的回溯與前瞻經濟評估題組，是否適合用以推論經濟投票的存在。研究指出，回溯性與前瞻性社會經濟評估兩道題目，設定了一個詢問的時段，若在選後新政府上台後進行面訪，在概念上會產生效度的問題，特別是回溯性社會經濟評估，變成是對前後任政府施政的比較，問題較為嚴重。另外在實質的回答上，因為訪問時已經知道當選者是誰，選民的回答可能會受到政黨偏好或候選人偏好的影響，產生了內生的問題，產生因果方向的不確定性。與此相對，候選人經濟處理能力這一題，並不像回溯或前瞻社會經濟評估在題目上設定一個詢問的時段，所以不會出現回溯社會經濟評因為選後面訪，產生的效度問題。不過這個變項還是可能會內生的問題，在沒有更多資訊的情況下，文中建議至少要在模型中控制住政黨認同與候選人形象，這樣做可以控制這兩個變項對投票選擇與經濟評估的影響，以釐清經濟評估對投票的影響。
We assess the retrospective and prospective economic survey questions by empirically examining the 1996 to 2008 TEDS presidential election surveys. We discuss which question is more appropriate in determining economic voting. Because the social economic assessment questions specify a time frame, they generate the validity problem when asked after the elected president has taken office. This problem is particularly severe for retrospective economic assessment. It induces respondents to compare the economic conditions of two consecutive presidential terms rather than the economic conditions one year before the election. In addition, because respondents already know those who have been elected, their answers are more likely to be influenced by partisan or candidate preferences, resulting in the problem of endogeneity. By contrast, the questions regarding the predecessor’s and the candidates’ handling of the economy do not specify a time frame. The validity problems are less severe. In actual fact, we demonstrate that the endogeneity problem goes with each set of economic assessment questions. To better examine the effect of economic assessment on vote choice, it is necessary to address the endogeneity problem. Without further information, researchers should at least control party identification and candidate image.
期刊論文
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2.Choi, Eunjung.(2010)。Economic Voting in Taiwan: The Significance of Education and Lifetime Economic Experiences。Asian Survey，50(5)，990-1010。  new window
3.Evans, Geoffrey、Robert Andersen.(2006)。The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions。Journal of Politics，68(1)，194-207。  new window
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12.Lewis-Beck, Michael S.、Richard Nadeau、Angelo Elias.(2008)。Economics, Party, and the Vote: Causality Issues and Panel Data.。American Journal of Political Science，52(1)，84-95。  new window
13.Lockerbie, Brad.(1991)。Prospective Economic Voting in U.S. House Elections。Legislative Studies Quarterly，16(2)，239-261。  new window
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15.MacKuen, Michael B.、Erikson, Robert S.、Stimson, James A.(1992)。Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy。American Political Science Review，86(3)，597-611。  new window
16.Malhotra, Neil.、Jon A. Krosnick.(2007)。The Effect of Survey Mode and Sampling on Inferences about Political Attitudes and Behavior: Comparing the 2000 and 2004 ANES to Internet Surveys with Nonprobability Samples。Political Analysis，15，286-323。  new window
17.Olson, Kristen.、Lindsey Witt.(2011)。Are we keeping the people whos used to stay? Changes in correlates of panel survey attribution over time.。Social Science Research，40(4)，1037-1050。  new window
18.Sniderman, Paul M.、Richard A. Brody.(1977)。Coping: The ethic of self-reliance。American Journal of Political Science，21，501-521。  new window
19.Weatherford, M. Stephen(1983)。Economic Voting and the 'Symbolic Politics' Argument: A Reinterpretation and Synthesis。American Political Science Review，77(1)，158-174。  new window
20.Powell, G. Bingham Jr.、Whitten, Guy D.(1993)。A Cross-national Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context。American Journal of Political Science，37(2)，391-414。  new window
21.Hsieh, John Fu-sheng、Lacy, Dean、Niou, Emerson M. S.(1998)。Retrospective and Prospective Voting in a One-Party-Dominant Democracy: Taiwan’s 1996 Presidential Election。Public Choice，97，383-399。  new window
22.Gomez, Brad T.、Wilson, J. Matthew(2001)。Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American Electorate: A Theory of Heterogeneous Attribution。American Journal of Political Science，45(4)，899-914。  new window
23.Achen, Christopher H.(1992)。Social Psychology, Demographic Variables, and Linear Regression: Breaking the Iron Triangle in Voting Research。Political Behavior，14(3)，195-211。  new window
24.Anderson, Christopher J.、Mendes, Silvia M.、Tverdova, Yuliya V.(2004)。Endogenous Economic Voting: Evidence from the 1997 British Election。Electoral Studies，23(4)，683-708。  new window
25.Kinder, Donald R.、Kiewiet, D. Roderick(1981)。Sociotropic Politics: The American Case。British Journal of Political Science，11，129-161。  new window
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30.Tufte, Edward R.(1975)。Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections。American Political Science Review，69(3)，812-826。  new window
31.徐火炎(20041100)。臺灣結、中國結與臺灣心、中國情：臺灣選舉中的符號政治。選舉研究，11(2)，1-41。new window  延伸查詢new window
32.Feldman, Stanley(1982)。Economic Self-interest and Political Behavior。American Journal of Political Science，26(3)，446-466。  new window
33.王甫昌(19940600)。族群同化與動員：臺灣民眾政黨支持之分析。中央研究院民族學研究所集刊，77，1-34。  延伸查詢new window
34.徐火炎(20020300)。臺灣政黨版圖的重畫--民進黨、國民黨與親民黨的「民基」比較。東吳政治學報，14，83-134。new window  延伸查詢new window
35.黃秀端(19940300)。經濟情況與選民投票抉擇。東吳政治學報，3，97-123。new window  延伸查詢new window
36.Lin, Chiung-chu(20080300)。The Role of Issue in Taiwan's Politics, 1996-2004。Issues & Studies，44(1)，71-104。new window  new window
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38.黃秀端(19960500)。決定勝負的關鍵:候選人特質與能力在總統選舉中的重要性。選舉研究，3(1)，103-135。new window  延伸查詢new window
39.陳陸輝、耿曙、王德育(20091100)。兩岸關係與2008年臺灣總統大選：認同、利益、威脅與選民投票取向。選舉研究，16(2)，1-22。new window  延伸查詢new window
40.盛杏湲、陳義彥(20030500)。政治分歧與政黨競爭：二○○一年立法委員選舉的分析。選舉研究，10(1)，7-40。new window  延伸查詢new window
41.徐火炎(19960700)。臺灣選民的國家認同與黨派投票行為：一九九一至一九九三年間的實證研究結果。臺灣政治學刊，1，85-127。new window  延伸查詢new window
42.Bartels, Larry M.(2002)。Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions。Political Behavior，24(2)，117-150。  new window
會議論文
1.Achen, Christopher H.、Larry M. Bartel.(2006)。It Feels Like We’re Thinking: The Rationalizing: Voter and Electoral Democracy。the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association，(會議日期: 20060830-20060903)。Philadelphia。  new window
2.Michelitch, Kristin、Andrew Owen、Joshua A. Tucker.(2010)。Looking to the Future: Prospective Economic Voting in the 2008 Presidential Elections。the 2010 Mid-west Political Science Association。Chicago。  new window
學位論文
1.王柏燿(2002)。台灣選民經濟投票之研究：1996-2001年(碩士論文)。國立政治大學，Taipei。  延伸查詢new window
2.林姿馨(2010)。選民對候選人議題位置認知之分析：以2004、2008年台灣總統選舉中的統獨議題為例(碩士論文)。東吳大學，台北。  延伸查詢new window
3.萬美君(2005)。總統選舉經濟投票選民之研究(碩士論文)。國立中正大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Campbell, Angus、Converse, Philip E.、Miller, Warren E.、Stoke, Donald E.(1960)。The American Voters。New York, NY：John Wiley。  new window
2.Lockerbie, Brad.(2008)。Do Voters Look to the Future？。New York, NY：State University of New York Press。  new window
3.Sears, David O.、Funk, C. L.(1990)。Self-Interest in Americans: Political Opinions。Beyond Self-Interest。Chicago, IL：University of Chicago Press。  new window
4.Lewis-Beck, Michael S.(1988)。Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies。Ann Arbor, MI：University of Michigan Press。  new window
5.Fiorina, Morris P.(1981)。Retrospective Voting in American National Election。New Haven, CT：Yale University Press。  new window
6.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York：Harper and Row。  new window
單篇論文
1.Aldrich, John H.，Beatriz Magaloni.(2006)。When Hegemonic Parties Lose: The 2000 Elections in Mexico and Taiwan。  new window
其他
1.Krosnick, Jon A.，Arthur Lupia，Vincent L. Hutchings，Matthew DeBell，Darrell Donakowski.(2008)。Background Information on the ANES 2008 Time Series Questionnaires，http://www.electionstudies.org/studypages/2008prepost/ 20090305Qdocument.pdf.， 20080305。  new window
圖書論文
1.盛杏湲(2009)。經濟與福利議題對台灣選民投票行為的影響：2008年總統選舉的探索。2008年總統選舉：論二次政黨輪替之關鍵選舉。臺北：五南。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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