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題名：臺北市選民分裂投票之研究民國八十七年市長市議員選舉之分析
書刊名：選舉研究
作者：吳怡銘
作者(外文)：Wu, Yi-ming
出版日期：2001
卷期：8:1
頁次：頁159-209
主題關鍵詞：區位謬誤；分裂投票；臺北市選舉；策略投票；Ecological fallacy；Split-ticket voting；Taipei election strategic voting
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(7) 博士論文(2) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:7
  • 共同引用共同引用:104
  • 點閱點閱:51
選民的投票意向一直是政治學界注意的焦點，但是在秘密投票的限制下，能得知「個別」選民的投票態度與決定，唯有依靠民意調查，不過所得之答案的真實性則令人懷疑。對選舉唯一能確定的是，選舉後選民「集體」決定後的結果，但若是希望藉由得票結果資料作為個人投票態度的推論，恐怕會有「區位謬誤」（ecological fallacy）的風險。本文以八十七年台北市選舉各投票所之得票記錄分析選民對各政黨市長和市議員候選人分裂投票的現象，嘗試運用King的EI模型，跨層次推論分析選民在三黨市議員候選人與三黨市長候選人之間的抉擇，並初探性利用統計方法降低區位謬誤的風險。結果發現，與外界預期新黨市議員支持者大多採取分裂投票，投票支持國民黨市長候選人馬英九，其分裂投票率高達98.29%。另外，國民黨市議員支持者亦有分裂投票的情形，主要分裂投票對象為民進黨市長候選人陳水扁，分裂投票率為48.28%。
Voting tendencies has been the focus of political field. Due to the limitations of the secretive voting system, the only way to learn each indi-vidual's voting preferences is to take polls. However, the reliability of the poll results is questionable. One thing that we can be sure of is that the voting results reflect every citizen's decision. It would be a risk of e-cological fallacy if one hypothesizes the voting attitude based on the voting result. Based on the voting result in the Taipei election of 1998, first of all, this thesis gives an analysis of the phenomenon of split-ticket voting between political parties in City Mayor and City congress. Applying King's EI model analyzes how citizens chose their desired candidates a-mong the three political parties. It also experimentally applies the statis-tics methods to lower the risk of ecological fallacy. So it turns out that as expected, the supporters of the New Party adapt split-ticket voting by voting KMT's candidate Mao Ying-jo. The rate of split-ticket voting reaches 98.29%. In addition, split-ticket voting also happens to the sup-porters of KMT's congress. The voters in split-ticket voting vote for DPP's City Mayor candidate Chen Shuei-Bien. The split-ticket voting rate registers 48.28%.
期刊論文
1.Maddox, William S.、Nimmo, Dan D.(1981)。In Search of the Ticket-Splitter。Social Science Quarterly，62(3)，401-408。  new window
2.Rusk, Jerrold G.(1970)。The Effect of the Australian Ballot Reform on Split Ticket Voting: 1876-1908。American Political Science Review，64(4)，1220-1238。  new window
3.Burden, B.、Kimball, D. C.(1998)。A New Approach to the Study of Ticket-Splitting。American Political Science Review，92(3)，533-544。  new window
4.Born, Richard(1994)。Split-ticket Voters, Divided Government, and Fiorina's Policy-balancing Model。Legislative Studies Quarterly，19(1)，95-115。  new window
5.Ingberman, Daniel、Villani, John(1993)。An Institutional Theory of Divided Government and Party Polarization。American Journal of Political Science，37(2)，429-471。  new window
6.Cox, Gary W.(1994)。Strategic Voting Equilibria under the Single Nontransferable Vote。American Political Science Review，88(3)，608-621。  new window
7.Robinson, William S.(1950)。Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals。American Sociological Review，15(3)，351-357。  new window
8.Bawan, Kathleen(1993)。The Logic of Institutional Preferences: German Electoral Laws as a Social Choice Outcome。American Journal of Political Science，37(4)，965-989。  new window
9.Campbell, Angus、Miller, Warren E.(1957)。The Motivational Basis of Straight and Split-ticket Voting。American Political Science Review，51(2)，293-312。  new window
10.Beck, Pual Allen、Baum, Lawrence、Clausen, Aage R.、Smith, Charles E. Jr.(1992)。Patterns and Sources of Ticket Splitting in Subpresidential Voting。American Political Science Review，86(4)，916-928。  new window
11.Riker, William H.(19821200)。The Two-Party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science。American Political Science Review，76(4)，753-766。  new window
12.黃德福(19911200)。臺灣地區七十八年底選舉分裂投票之初探研究--以臺北縣、雲林縣與高雄縣為個案。政治學報，19，55-80。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.吳重禮(19980600)。美國「分立性政府」與「一致性政府」體制運作之比較與評析。政治科學論叢，9，61-89。new window  延伸查詢new window
14.洪永泰(19950500)。分裂投票：八十三年臺北市選舉的實證分析。選舉研究，2(1)，119-145。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Cox, Gary W.(1990)。Centripetal and Centrifugal Incentives in Electoral Systems。American Journal of Political Science，34(4)，903-935。  new window
16.Canon, David T.、Soss, Joe(1995)。Partisan Divisions and Voting Decisions: U. S. Senators, Governors, and the Rise of a Divided Federal Government。Political Research Quarterly，48(2)，253-274。  new window
17.Frymer, Paul(1994)。Ideological Consensus within Divided Party Government。Political Science Quarterly，109(2)，287-311。  new window
18.Duncan, Otis Dudley、Davis, Beverly(1953)。An Alternative to Ecological Correlation。American Sociological Review，18，665-666。  new window
19.Katz, Jonathan N.、King, Gary(1999)。A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data。American Political Science Review，93(1)，15-32。  new window
20.Miller, Warren E.(1992)。Generational Changes and Party Identification。Political Behavior，14，335-352。  new window
21.Ferejohn, John A.、Calvert, Randall L.(1984)。Presidential Coattails in Historical Perspective。American Journal of Political Science，28，127-146。  new window
22.Bawn, K.(1999)。Voter responses to electoral complexity: Ticket splitting, rational voters and representation in Federal Republic of Germany。British Journal of Political Science，29(3)，487-505。  new window
會議論文
1.黃紀、張益超(2000)。一致與分裂投票 : 嘉義市一九九七年市長與立委選舉之分析。「政治分析的層次問題」國際學術研討會。嘉義：國立中正大學政治學系暨研究所。1-24。  延伸查詢new window
2.徐永明(1999)。九四、九八臺北雙城記：族群政治中少數選擇的分流點。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
3.戴立安(1999)。陳水扁支持者的族譜初析－以83、87年臺北市長選舉相較為例。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.洪永泰、陳義彥、黃德福(1995)。臺北市民眾市政意向之研究。臺北：國立政治大學選舉研究中心。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.林佳龍(1988)。國民黨與民進黨的群眾基礎：臺灣選民政黨支持的比較分析(碩士論文)。國立台灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.張益超(1999)。選民投票穩定程度之研究--嘉義市第四屆與第五屆市長選舉之分析(碩士論文)。國立中正大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳連生(1986)。臺北市軍眷的政治支持取向及投票動機－以政治文化研究途徑調查分析，0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Achen, Christopher H.、Shively, W. Phillips(1995)。Cross-Level Inference。University of Chicago Press。  new window
2.Devries, W.、Tarrance, V. L.(1972)。The Ticket Splitter: A New Force in American Politics。Grand Rapids, MI：Eerdmans。  new window
3.Fiorina, M. P.(1992)。Divided Government。New York：MaCmillan Publishing Company。  new window
4.Cox, Gary W.(1997)。Making Votes Count。Cambridge。  new window
5.Wattenberg, Martin P.(1991)。The Rise of Candidate Centered Politics: Presidential Elections of the 1980s。Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press。  new window
6.King, Gary(1997)。A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data。Princeton, New Jersey：Princeton University Press。  new window
7.王業立(1998)。比較選舉制度。台北：五南圖書。  延伸查詢new window
8.Jacobson, Gary C.(1990)。The Electoral Origins of Divided Government: Competition in U. S. House Elections, 1946-1988。Boulder, Colo.：Westview Press。  new window
9.Fiorina, Morris P.(1989)。Congress: Keystone of the Washington Establishment。Yale University Press。  new window
10.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York：Harper and Row。  new window
11.黃紀(1999)。南臺灣「選舉地緣」之詳實資料庫：1986-2000。南臺灣「選舉地緣」之詳實資料庫：1986-2000。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
12.Kiewiet, D. Roderick(1983)。Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: the Electoral Effects of Economic Issues。Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: the Electoral Effects of Economic Issues。Chicago, IL。  new window
圖書論文
1.Fiorina, Morris P.(1988)。The Reagan Years: Turning to the Right or Grouping toward the Middle?。The Resurgence of Conservatism in Anglo-American Democracies。Durham, NC：Duke University Press。  new window
2.王甫昌(1998)。臺灣族群政治的形成及其表現：1994年臺北市長選舉結果之分析。民主、轉型？臺灣現象。臺北：桂冠圖書股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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