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題名：策略投票及其影響之檢測：二○○一年縣市長及立委選舉結果的探討
書刊名：東吳政治學報
作者：王鼎銘 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wang, Ding-ming
出版日期：2003
卷期：16
頁次：頁95-123
主題關鍵詞：杜佛傑法則；單記不可讓渡；策略投票；席次喪失率；Duverger's law；Single non-transferable vote；Strategic voting；Seat loss rate
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相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(11) 博士論文(3) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:7
  • 共同引用共同引用:336
  • 點閱點閱:95
台灣地區選舉時所謂配票或棄保的競選口號不斷，雖然以「杜佛傑法則」（Duverger's Law）為基礎來解釋選民這種策略投票的文獻相當的多，然而從實證方法來探索選民策略投票的研究，卻主要侷限於分析個體民調資料。本文從總體資料著手，以Gary Cox所建立的選區SF Ratio指數，來觀察各選區選票集中情形，並進一步了解策略投票在選舉中的作用。本文的研究發現，在單一選區的縣市長選舉中，選民明顯將選票集中在前兩強候選人身上，在競爭激烈以及國親整合成功的選區中，這個情況特又別顯著。反觀這種集中選票的情形，並未明顯的發生在區域立委選舉中。此外，本文也發現選民策略投票的情形，並未對各黨立委實際贏得的席次造成傷害，真正影響各政黨選票與席次高低的，主要還是來自各政黨所提名的參選人數多寡上。
Although numerous studies have discussed the phenomenon of strategic voting based on the Duverger’s Law, empirical evidence on this issue was limited at the micro (individual voter) level in literature. Using data at the macro (district) level, this research demonstrates the existence of strategic voting and identifies its impact on electoral outcomes. Analyzing the SF Ratio (ratio of the second to the first loser’s vote total) measurement proposed by Gary Cox for each voting district, the result demonstrates that the votes clustered to the top two candidates in the district when single majority formula was imposed. Such an incidence is particularly prominent in the highly competitive districts or in the presence of party coalition. On the other hand, the votes did not cluster to the top two candidates in the legislative election in which SNTV is imposed. In addition, it is found that the presence of strategic voting did not impact the number of the seats obtained by each party. Instead, the number of candidates nominated by a party was the key determinant of the votes and seats won by the party.
期刊論文
1.包正豪(19980500)。新黨平均配票策略效果之研究：以八十四年立法委員選舉為例。選舉研究，5(1)，95-138。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.游清鑫(19991100)。競選策略的個案研究：1998年民進黨臺北市南區立法委員選舉的探討。選舉研究，6(2)，163-190。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Galbraith, John W.、Rae, Nicol C.(1989)。A test of the importance of tactical voting: Great Britain, 1987。British Journal of Political Science，19(1)，126-136。  new window
4.Blais, Andre、Carty, R. K.(1991)。The Psychological Impact of Electoral Laws: Measuring Duverger's Elusive Factor。British Journal of Political Science，21(1)，79-93。  new window
5.謝復生、Niemi, Richard G.(1999)。Can Duverger's Law Be Extended to SNTV? The Case of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan Elections。Electoral Studies，18(1)，101-116。  new window
6.盛治仁(20000000)。八十九年總統大選地區效應與棄保效應分析。輔仁學誌. 法管理學院之部，31，117-132。  延伸查詢new window
7.Bowler, Shaun、Farrell, David M.(1993)。Legislator Shirking and Voter Monitoring: Impacts of European Parliament Electoral Systems upon Legislator-Voter Relationships。Journal of Common Market Studies，31(1)，45-69。  new window
8.Reed, Steven R.(1990)。Structure and Behaviour: Extending Duverger's Law to the Japanese Case。British Journal of Political Science，20(3)，335-356。  new window
9.Cox, Gary W.(1994)。Strategic Voting Equilibria under the Single Nontransferable Vote。American Political Science Review，88(3)，608-621。  new window
10.Cox, Gary W.(1996)。Is the Single Nontransferable Vote Superproportional? Evidence from Japan and Taiwan。American Journal of Political Science，40(3)，740-755。  new window
11.Cox, Gary W.、Niou, Emerson M. S.(1994)。Seat Bonuses under the Single Non-Transferable Vote System: Evidence from Japan and Taiwan。Comparative Politics，26(2)，221-236。  new window
12.徐永明(20010900)。民調在競選中的角色：以二０００年臺灣總統大選中「未表態選民」為例。問題與研究，40(5)，105-119。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Shepsle, Kenneth、Weingast, Barry(1984)。Uncovered Sets and Sophisticated Voting Outcomes with Implications for Agenda Control。American Journal of Political Science，28，49-74。  new window
14.McKelvey, Richard、Niemi, Richard(1978)。A Multistage Representation of Sophisticated Voting for Binary Procedures。Journal of Economic Theory，18，1-22。  new window
15.Miller, Nicholas(1980)。A New Solution Set for Tournaments and Majority Voting。American Journal of Political Science，24，68-96。  new window
16.Ordeshook, Peter、Schwartz, Thomas(1987)。Agendas and the Control of Political Outcomes。American Journal of Political Science，81，179-199。  new window
17.Jesse, Neal G.(1999)。Candidate Success in Multi-Member Districts: An Investigation of Duverger and Cox。Electoral Studies，18(3)，323-340。  new window
18.Austen-Smith, David(1987)。Sophisticated Sincerity: Voting over Endogenous Agendas。American Political Science Review，81，1323-1330。  new window
19.Banks, Jeffrey(1985)。Sophisticated Voting Outcomes and Agenda Control。Social Choice and Welfare，1，295-306。  new window
20.莊文忠(20000700)。選舉預測與策略性投票：以八十九年總統選舉為例。理論與政策，14(2)=54，55-91。new window  延伸查詢new window
21.徐永明(20010300)。九四、九八臺北雙城記：不確定中大眾選擇的分流點。東吳政治學報，12，75-112。new window  延伸查詢new window
22.王業立(19960500)。相對多數vs.絕對多數：各國總統直選方式的比較研究。選舉研究，3(1)，49-67。new window  延伸查詢new window
23.王業立(19950500)。單記非讓渡投票制的政治影響：我國民意代表選舉制度的探討。選舉研究，2(1)，147-167。new window  延伸查詢new window
24.Cox, Gary W.(1990)。Centripetal and Centrifugal Incentives in Electoral Systems。American Journal of Political Science，34(4)，903-935。  new window
25.黃秀端(20010900)。單一選區與複數選區相對多數制下的選民策略投票。東吳政治學報，13，37-75。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Farquharson, Robin(1969)。Theory of Voting。New Haven, Connecticut：Yale University Press。  new window
2.Farrell, David M.(2001)。Electoral Systems: A Comparative Introduction。New York：Palgrave。  new window
3.Katz, Richard S.(1980)。A Theory of Parties and Electoral Systems。Baltimore, Maryland：The Johns Hopkins University Press。  new window
4.Duverger, Maurice、North, Barbara、North, Robert(1954)。Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State。London：University Paperbacks, Methuen。  new window
5.Rae, Douglas W.(1967)。The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws。New Haven：Yale University Press。  new window
6.Ranney, Austin(1996)。Governing: An Introduction to Political Science。Upper Saddle River, NJ：Prentice-Hall International, Inc.。  new window
7.葛永光(1996)。政黨政治與民主發展。台北：國立空中大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.Merrill, Samuel III(1988)。Making Multicandidate Elections More Democratic。Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press。  new window
9.Downs, Anthony J.(1957)。An Economic Theory of Democracy。New York：Harper and Row。  new window
10.謝復生(1992)。政黨比例代表制。臺北市：理論與政策雜誌社。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.Lijphart, Arend(1984)。Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Government in Twenty-One Countries。Yale University Press。  new window
12.王業立(1998)。比較選舉制度。五南圖書出版股份有限公司。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.Cox, Gary W.(1997)。Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral Systems。Cambridge University Press。  new window
單篇論文
1.Cox, Gary W.，Shugart, Matthew S.(1995)。Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation，San Diego：University of California。  new window
圖書論文
1.Riker, William H.(1986)。Duverger's Law Revisited。Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences。New York：Agathon Press, Inc.。  new window
2.Duverger, Maurice(1986)。Duverger's Law: Forty Years Later。Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences。New York：Agathon Press, Inc.。  new window
3.Palfery, Thomas(1989)。A Mathematical Proof of Duverger's Law。Models of Strategic Choice in Politics。Ann Arbor, MI：University of Michigan Press。  new window
4.Farrell, David M.(1994)。Ireland: Centralization, Professionalization and Campaign Pressures。How Parties Organize: Adaptation and Change in Party Organizations in Western Democracies。London：Sage。  new window
 
 
 
 
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